10 Insane Stats About the Cardiac Pacers
I’ll keep this brief because the tip-off of game two of the NBA Finals is underway, but I couldn’t just breeze past Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers’ historic game one comeback without writing about it.
Here are 10 of the craziest stats about Indy’s magical playoff run.
1. Haliburton is Ridiculously Clutch
Haliburton is 13-for-15 on game-tying or go-ahead shots in the last two minutes of games this season.
13-for-15 is the most makes in history with a minimum of 15 shots in this part of a game. Strangely, Haliburton hasn’t sunk a buzzer-beater this season but regardless of when his game-defining shots go in, he’s making them at an incredible rate.
What’s even crazier is that Haliburton’s Finals foe, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is 0-for-7 on these shots this year.
2. Haliburton is Ridiculously Clutch pt. 2
Haliburton is 5-for-5 on game-tying or go-ahead shots with less than 15 seconds left in regulation or overtime in the playoffs. The rest of the NBA is 4-for-27.
Combining Haliburton with the rest of the league, players are 9-for-32 (28.1%) on these shots. That means that the odds of Haliburton shooting 5-for-5 is 0.0018—the equivalent of flipping nine heads in a row on a coin.
3. Taking Care of the Ball
The Pacers have two turnovers in 33 minutes of clutch time.
Indiana averages 13.4 turnovers per game in 48.6 minutes per game in the playoffs. That means that in a 33-minute span, they’d be expected to turn the ball over more than nine times. The probability of accomplishing this is almost the same as Haliburton shooting 5-for-5—it’s 0.0021.
Especially with such a fast-moving offense, it’s highly impressive that Indiana has been able to keep the ball under control. Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard are two of the most efficient assist-to-turnover guards in the league and both deserve credit for keeping the ball under control in high-leverage situations.
4. Winning Despite Rare Turnovers
The Pacers -19 turnover differential is the highest in a playoff win in NBA history.
I just mentioned that the Pacers have been great at holding onto the basketball, but that was not the case in game one against the Thunder. They turned the ball over 19 times in the first half and 25 ties for the game but still emerged victorious.
Prior to them, the Grizzlies held the record for worst turnover differential in a playoff win with a -15 differential which Memphis set in 2012 against the Clippers.
5. Microscopic Win Probability
The Pacers had a 2.1% chance to win game one vs OKC with 9:42 remaining.
All of those turnovers in game one led to a 15-point fourth-quarter hole that the Pacers somehow managed to climb out of. At 79-94, OKC had a 97.9% chance of winning according to ESPN analytics. From that point forward, the Pacers scored 32 points on 11-for-18 shooting and stole the game.
Game 1 win probability illustration
Furthermore, The Thunder had at least a 70% chance of winning from 5:05 in the first quarter until 0:48 in the fourth quarter.
6. Comeback Kings cont’d.
Indiana is 5-3 in the playoffs in games where they trailed by 15+ points.
This is the equivalent of being 5-3 in the NFL when down by 10+ points. It’s almost unthinkable. The pace the Pacers (very fitting) play with allows them to get back into games in the blink of an eye. That and their +2.4 net rating in clutch games this postseason.
By the way, we talk so much about the four Haliburton game-winning shot comebacks, but let’s not forget about the Pacers erasing a 19-point deficit on the road in a closeout game against the top-seeded Cavaliers.
7. Unprecedented Finals Comeback
NBA teams are 1-182 when trailing by 9+ points in the last three minutes of a Finals game.
Of course, that 1 is the Pacers after mounting their historic comeback on Thursday night. Indiana took their first lead with 0.3 seconds remaining after the Thunder had led for 46 minutes and 26 seconds of the game.
8. Haliburton’s Heroics
Haliburton is the first player to hit a game-winning or game-tying shot in the final three seconds of a game in every series of a playoff run.
Game 5 layup vs Bucks. Game 2 three vs Cavs. Game 1 prayer shot vs Knicks. Game 1 pull-up vs Thunder. And nobody has come close to what Haliburton has done with this collection of game-winners. The only other player to hit a game-winner or a game-tying shot in every round of the playoffs was Michael Jordan who did so over the course of 12 seasons. Haliburton did it in one season.
LeBron James leads all players in shots to tie or take the lead in the final five seconds of a playoff game with eight. In two postseasons, Haliburton has tied Reggie Miller for the second most such shots in NBA history.
9. Haliburton is Doing Historic Things in the Clutch
Haliburton has the highest shooting clutch win probability added in a postseason of all time.
Tom Haberstroh of Yahoo Sports described this stat like this: “It takes a reading of a team’s chances of winning before a player takes a shot (say, 60%) and after a player takes a shot (say, 90%). It calculates the difference in those two figures (90%-60% = +30%) and then credits or debits the net figure to the shooting player (+30%). Add it all up for a player’s shots across a postseason and you can see how a player’s makes and misses shake out in the end.”
Haliburton has added 2.48 wins for the Pacers in this postseason and he still has at least three games to play. The craziest part is that he’s murdering the competition.
10. We’ll Never See This Ever Again
At their lowest points, the Pacers had 1-in-17 billion odds to win all four games of Game 5 vs. Bucks, Game 2 vs. Cavs, Game 1 vs. Knicks and Game 1 vs. OKC
We know about the Pacers’ 2.1% odds to beat OKC in game one, but at their lowest point against the Knicks in game one, they had just an 0.3% of winning. Against Cleveland in game two, it was also 2.1%, and against Milwaukee in game five, it was ALSO 2.1%. Multiply those together, and the Pacers had a 0.00000278% of winning all four.
What Indiana is doing when faced with a deficit is truly incredible.
Enjoy game two of the Finals!