A Beginner's Guide to the NBA's 82nd Game
30 teams. 15 games. All in the span of four hours. Playoff positioning is up for grabs. Draft order at stake. It’s Lions vs Vikings on Sunday Night Football in week 18, it’s Rays vs Yankees in game 162 back in 2011, it’s what an entire season of blood, sweat, and tears comes down to. One day will decide the entire order of the playoff field and will set up the most scintillating two months of a single sport all year.
Disclaimer: we’ve had more exciting game 82s in the past. Over half of the NBA has nothing at stake today, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t due for a fantastic finish involving the rest of the teams.
With the first batch of games just minutes away, let’s dig into what each game means for each team and conclude with a deeper explanation of the wild wild Western Conference playoff picture. Trust me, this will be worthwhile. Let’s get into it.
P.S. If you’re confused about anything, I recommend using the NBA standings as a guide.
Nets vs Knicks (1:00 PM)
Knicks (50-31): Nothing is at stake for the Knicks. With Indiana’s loss to Orlando the other night, they clinched the 3rd seed in the East. Indiana is only one game back, but the Knicks won the season series against them 2-1.
Nets (26-55): Nothing is at stake for the Nets. They are two games clear of Philadelphia and four games back of Toronto, meaning they have solidified themselves at sixth in the draft lottery.
Hawks vs Magic (1:00 PM)
Hawks (39-42): Nothing is at stake for the Hawks. They are locked into the 8th seed thanks to Orlando’s victory over Indiana on Friday. They are only one game ahead of Chicago, but they win the tiebreaker because their conference record is 27-20 and Chicago’s is 23-23.
Magic (41-40): Nothing is at stake for the Magic. They are locked into the 7th seed as they are three games behind Detroit and two games clear of Atlanta.
Bucks vs Pistons (1:00 PM)
Bucks (47-34): Nothing is at stake for the Bucks. With their win over Detroit on Friday, they locked in their position as the 5th seed. They are now two games back of Indiana and three games ahead of Detroit.
Pistons (44-37): Nothing is at stake for the Pistons. With their loss to Milwaukee on Friday, they locked in their position as the 6th seed. They are now three games behind Milwaukee and three ahead of Orlando.
Celtics vs Hornets (1:00 PM)
Celtics (60-21): Nothing is at stake for the Celtics. They’ve had the 2nd seed locked up for about a week. They are four games behind Cleveland and ten games ahead of New York.
Hornets (19-62): Nothing is at stake for the Hornets. They clinched the third worst record in the league with their loss to Boston two nights ago. They are two games ahead of Washington and Utah and two games behind New Orleans.
Pacers vs Cavaliers (1:00 PM)
Pacers (49-32): Nothing is at stake for the Pacers. With their loss to Cleveland on Friday, they eliminated themselves from contention for the 3rd seed. They are now locked into the 4th seed, a game back of the Knicks and two clear of Milwaukee.
Cavaliers (64-17): Nothing is at stake for the Cavs. They’ve had the 1st seed locked up for five days and currently sit four games above Boston.
Heat vs Wizards (1:00 PM)
Heat (37-44): Nothing is at stake for the Heat. They are in the 10th spot, one game back of Chicago, but because Chicago won the season series 3-0, the Heat have no chance of overtaking them.
Wizards (17-64): The Wizards can secure the top spot in the draft lottery with a loss. With a win and a Utah loss, they will fall to second. The second place team has a chance of getting the sixth pick whereas the first place team can only fall as far as fifth.
76ers vs Bulls (1:00 PM)
76ers (24-57): Nothing is at stake for the 76ers. They have clinched the fifth-worst record in the league as they now sit three games ahead of New Orleans and two behind Brooklyn.
Bulls (38-43): Nothing is at stake for the Bulls: With their conference record, they can’t catch Atlanta and with the head-to-head record against Miami, they can’t fall to 10th. Chicago has clinched the 9th seed.
Trail Blazers vs Lakers (3:30 PM)
Trail Blazers (35-46): Nothing is at stake for the Trail Blazers. They are only a game back of Phoenix but Phoenix’s 21-25 conference record clears Portland’s 16-30 record. Portland is locked into the 9th spot in the draft lottery.
Lakers (50-31): Nothing is at stake for the Lakers. With their win over Houston on Friday, they locked up the 3rd seed. They know sit a game ahead of Denver, who they have the head-to-head against, and two games behind Houston.
Timberwolves vs Jazz (3:30 PM)
Timberwolves (48-33): With a win, Minnesota can get as high as the 5th seed. They can also finish as the 5th and 6th seeds.
Scenarios ranked by likelihood:
MIN win + DEN loss + LAC win vs GSW — MIN is 5th seed (30.2%)
4. LAC (50-32), 5. MIN (49-33), 6. DEN (49-33), 7. GSW (48-34)
MIN win + DEN loss + GSW win vs LAC — MIN is 4th seed (25.4%)
4. MIN (49-33), 5. LAC (49-33), 6. GSW (49-33), 7. DEN (49-33)
Minnesota owns the four-way tiebreaker over DEN, GSW, and LAC
MIN win + DEN win + LAC win vs GSW — MIN is 6th seed (19.8%)
4. DEN (50-32), 5. LAC (50-32), 6. MIN (49-33), 7. GSW (48-34)
MIN win + DEN win + GSW win vs LAC — MIN is 5th seed (16.7%)
4. DEN (50-32), 5. MIN (49-33), 6. GSW (49-33), 7. LAC (49-33)
MIN owns three-way tiebreaker over GSW and LAC
With a loss, the Timberwolves will lock up the 7th seed. They have the head-to-head tiebreaker against Memphis but not against Golden State. They have a 7.8% of losing according to ESPN analytics.
Jazz (17-64): With a loss and a Wizards win, Utah can clinch the best draft lottery odds. With a win or a Wizards loss, Utah will maintain their position as second in the lottery.
Thunder vs Pelicans (3:30 PM)
Thunder (67-14): Nothing is at stake for the Thunder. They have had the number one seed locked up for close to a month as they sit 15 games clear of Houston. They also have the best record in the league clinched, sitting three games ahead of Cleveland.
Pelicans (21-60): Nothing is at stake for the Pelicans. They have clinched the fourth worst record in the league. They are two games ahead of Charlotte and three games behind Philadelphia.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks (3:30 PM)
Grizzlies (47-34): Nothing is at stake for the Grizzlies. They are locked into the 8th seed in the West. They are only a game back of both Minnesota and Golden State but hold tiebreakers over neither of them.
Mavericks (39-42): The Mavericks can clinch the 9th seed with a win and a Sacramento loss to Phoenix. They will maintain their position as the 10th seed if they lose of Sacramento wins.
Kings vs Suns (3:30 PM)
Kings (39-42): The Kings can clinch the 9th seed with a win or a Dallas loss to Memphis. The will fall to the 10th seed with a loss and a Dallas victory.
Suns (36-45): Nothing is at stake for the Suns. They are a game clear of Portland and own the tiebreaker and are three games behind Sacramento and Dallas. They will have the 10th best lottery odds.
Warriors vs Clippers (3:30 PM)
Warriors (48-33): With a win, the Warriors will clinch the 6th seed. They would not be able to overtake Los Angeles because they still lose the head-to-head tiebreaker, but they would clinch higher seeding then Minnesota thanks to the head-to-head. Golden State has a 45.7% chance of beating Los Angeles according to ESPN analytics.
With a loss, Golden State will most likely end up as the 7th seed, but they have a chance to maintain the 6th seed.
Scenarios ranked by likelihood:
GSW loss + MIN win — GSW is the 7th seed (50.0%)
6. MIN (49-33), 7. GSW (48-34)
GSW loss + MIN loss — GSW is the 6th seed (4.3%)
Clippers (49-32): With a win, the Clippers will be either the 4th or 5th seed, depending on if Denver’s result against Houston.
Scenarios ranked by likelihood:
LAC win + DEN loss — LAC is the 4th seed (33.0%)
LAC win + DEN win — LAC is the 5th seed (21.7%)
With a loss, the Clippers will either land at the 5th seed or the 7th seed depending on the results of the Denver and Minnesota games.
Scenarios ranked by likelihood:
LAC loss + DEN loss + MIN win — LAC is the 5th seed (25.4%)
4. MIN (49-33), 5. LAC (49-33), 6. GSW (49-33), 7. DEN (49-33)
LAC is second place in the four-way tiebreaker.
LAC loss + DEN win + MIN win — LAC is the 7th seed (16.7%)
4. DEN (50-32), 5. MIN (49-33), 6. GSW (49-33), 7. LAC (49-33)
LAC is last in the three-way tiebreaker between them, MIN, and GSW.
LAC loss + DEN loss + MIN loss — LAC is the 5th seed (2.2%)
4. DEN (49-33), 5. LAC (49-33), 6. GSW (49-33), 7. MIN (48-34)
LAC loss + DEN win + MIN loss — LAC is the 5th seed (1.4%)
4. DEN (50-32), 5. LAC (49-33), 6. GSW (49-33), 7. MIN (48-34)
Spurs vs Raptors (3:30 PM)
Spurs (33-48): Nothing is at stake for the Spurs. They are three games ahead of Toronto and two games behind Portland, solidifying their position as 8th in the draft lottery.
Raptors (30-51): Nothing is at stake for the Raptors. They are four games ahead of Brooklyn and three games behind San Antonio, handing them the 7th best lottery odds.
Rockets vs Nuggets (3:30 PM)
Rockets (52-29): Nothing is at stake for the Rockets. They are two games clear of Los Angeles and have clinched the 2nd seed. However, they will not be resting their players against Denver today.
Nuggets (49-32): With a win, the Nuggets will clinch the 4th seed in the West. They hold the conference record tiebreaker over the Clippers who currently have the same record as Denver. Denver has a 39.4% chance of beating Houston today according to ESPN analytics.
With a loss, Denver can finish anywhere from fourth to seventh.
Scenarios ranked by likelihood:
DEN loss + LAC win vs GSW + MIN win — DEN is 6th seed (30.2%)
4. LAC (50-32), 5. MIN (49-33), 6. DEN (49-33), 7. GSW (48-34)
DEN loss + GSW win vs LAC + MIN win — DEN is 7th seed (25.4%)
4. MIN (49-33), 5. LAC (49-33), 6. GSW (49-33), 7. DEN (49-33)
DEN loss + LAC win vs GSW + MIN loss — DEN is the 5th seed (2.6%)
DEN loss + GSW win vs LAC + MIN loss — DEN is the 4th seed (2.2%)
4. DEN (49-33), 5. LAC (49-33), 6. GSW (49-33), 7. MIN (48-34)
Thanks for all of these ATA scenarios and analytics! -- from a Beginner