AFC East Preview: Standings, Playoff Bracket, Storylines and More
Everybody’s revved up and ready to go for the fast-approaching 2024-2025 NFL season which kicks on Thursday night on NBC when the Ravens visit the defending champion Chiefs.
On the other side of week one, we’ll get to finally watch the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets try make a name for themselves against the blood-thirsty 49ers (unless of course Fred Warner tears Rodgers’ ankle right off). The Jets are the team to watch in the AFC East this year with a chance to end the Bills’ four year streak as division champs. But in a division loaded with talent, anything can happen.
Here are my predictions.
New York Jets
12-5 is assuming that Aaron Rodgers plays more than four snaps this season. It’s assuming that Nathaniel Hackett doesn’t forget how to call plays in the middle of the game. It’s assuming that the re-tooled offensive line meshes quickly and stays healthy. From what I know about Tyron Smith’s 8x Pro-Bowl career and Morgan Moses and John Simpson from watching the Ravens every week, the Jets have an above-average offensive line. From what I know about Aaron Rodgers’ Hall-of-Fame career, I know he is capable of playing like a top-5 quarterback this season, and from what I know about his pairing with Nat Hackett, the two can win a high number of regular season games.
If the Jets’ offense can be solid this season, that’s all they’ll need to reach 12 wins. They have a blistering defense that has taken some of the worst offenses in recent memory to seven wins in back-to-back seasons. Last season, the Jets were 3rd in defensive DVOA. Since 2020, they are the only team in the top three of any year to not have a winning record thanks to their morbid offense. With any kind of competent offense, 12 wins are achievable. Those 11 other teams averaged exactly 12 wins in their top 3 seasons.
Schedule-wise, the Jets’ out-of-division games are as easy as it gets. Of those eleven teams, only four made the playoffs last season. The Jets also hit their division opponents at the right time. They play the Patriots in weeks 3 and 8—when either Jacoby Brissett will be starting or Drake Maye will still be adjusting to the speed of the NFL. They play the Dolphins in December and January when Miami always seems to struggle. As for Buffalo, I have the Bills winning both games against the Jets, but if New York can get one, they might find themselves at 13-4.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills' offensive losses have been overblown. If anything, I believe the loss of Stefon Diggs will be good for Josh Allen. I realize that being down on Diggs is a popular stance at this point in time, but I truly believe that Allen was forcing targets to Diggs into tight windows in order to satisfy Diggs, leading to careless turnovers that lost the Bills multiple close games. As for Gabe Davis, he was always overrated in my mind, making a name for himself with a great playoff game against Kansas City in 2022 and a few long touchdowns in 2023 with little more on his resume. Allen with a balanced running attack led by James Cook is a proven formula for success and I assume Joe Brady will look towards a more run-heavy offense in 2024 with a pool of inexperienced receivers.
Buffalo’s main losses come in the middle and in the secondary on defense. Damar Hamlin is currently listed as a starter which should tell you all you need to know. So, while I’m picking Buffalo against teams like Jacksonville, Arizona, and Kansas City who rely on their run games, I can see I few slip-ups against teams like Seattle, Houston, and Miami down south.
For anybody who thinks the Bills won’t be a playoff team this year, think again. Josh Allen gets a lot of hate for his interceptions but in reality, he is part of a small group of quarterbacks who can carry their team to double-digit wins every season.
The Bills had 12.06 Pythagorean wins last season and with the defensive issues, a one-game decline seems fair, but nothing more.
Miami Dolphins
Maybe I’m just sick of watching Miami fall apart in December and January, but I’m not very bullish on them this year, and have them finishing with a losing record and missing the playoffs. There is no visible reason why Miami should decline based on their roster, but I believe that their decline will have more to do with teams doing a better job of combatting Mike McDaniel’s offensive attack. DeVon Achane will not average 113 yards per carry again this year, Raheem Mostert will not score 20 touchdowns, and Tua Tagovailoa will not lead the league in passing yards.
Miami had one of the best offenses of all time through six games last season, averaging 37.2 PPG, but only scored 24.8 PPG in their final eleven games—good but not good enough to win the Super Bowl. Most importantly, in three crucial games to end the season (week 17 vs Baltimore, week 18 vs Buffalo, and Wild Card Weekend vs Kansas City), they only scored 13.3 PPG.
I don’t doubt that Miami will start strong again this season—I have them ripping off an 8-3 start just like they did last year. However, the backside of their schedule is deadly. In their final six games, they play Green Bay, New York, Houston, San Francisco, Cleveland, and New York again. Four of those games are on the road, and in three of them, Miami’s opponent will be coming off extended rest. I have the Dolphins going 1-5 in that stretch, hence, why they will finish just 9-8 this season.
New England Patriots
Patriots fans, I’ve thrown you a bone with five wins here. Normally, when you have the worst coach, worst quarterback, worst runningbacks, worst wide receivers, and worst offensive line in a division, it’s hard to win five games. However, I think it’ll be important to be patient with the Pats. Jerod Mayo was clearly reluctant to name Jacoby Brissett the starter for week one, and judging by some of his comments about the quarterback situation, Brissett will be on a very short leash. I predict Drake Maye will be the Patriots starter no later than week six.
The first eight weeks are alarming for New England. Every team that they play I predict will have a winning record this year. Thus, I think they’ll squeak out a grimy win against Miami in week five at home, but they’ll find themselves at 1-7. In the second half, I expect Maye to settle in and with a softened schedule, his best quarterback play and a good defense are enough to finish the season 4-5. I have them getting wins over Tennessee, Arizona, the Chargers, and Buffalo which means they’ll win three of their last four leading to some rare optimism out of a depressed Patriots fanbase.
I won’t spend much time talking about the defense. They are a known quantity from last season and even without Matthew Judon and Christian Barmore, I believe this is a defense that will repair the holes with their continuity and experience as well as second-year defensive end Keion White.
Division Awards
Most Valuable Player: Josh Allen (Bills)
Offensive Player of the Year: Breece Hall (Jets)
Defensive Player of the Year: Sauce Gardner (Jets)
Rookie of the Year: Keon Coleman (Bills)
Coach of the Year: Robert Saleh (Jets)
Biggest X-Factor: Aaron Rodgers (Jets)
My Favorite Bets
Josh Allen over 3,825.5 passing yards (-112)
Allen hasn’t gone under 4,283 yards in his past three seasons. Again, the odds makers are overreacting to Diggs and Davis leaving town.
New York Jets over 9.5 wins (-162)
When healthy, the Jets are too damn talented to win nine games. If they do, fire everybody.
The Bills to score a touchdown in every game (-105)
Buffalo has scored at least one touchdown in every game since November 7th, 2021.