AFC South Preview
The AFC South was home to the biggest shock in the NFL last year—the Texans winning the division. I had Houston ranked at 31 in my preseason power rankings last year, and not only did the Texans win 10 games and the South, but they won a playoff game and were tied at halftime in the divisional round against the Ravens.
This year, they’ve gotten the respect they deserve and the script has flipped from Trevor Lawrence dominating the division for 15 years to C.J. Stroud doing so.
In totality, the AFC South promises to be one of the most balanced divisions in the league this year, being one of just two divisions with three teams who have better than +325 odds to win. There’s a lot on the line and a lot of predicting to do. Here’s what I came up with.
Houston Texans
The ceiling for Houston is the moon with the roster they’ve got, but I’ll go with 11-6 just because I don’t think their offense improved as much as people seem to think and I believe they had a bit of luck on their side last year with nail-biting last-second wins against Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Denver, Tennessee, Indianapolis and only had 8.64 Pythagorean wins to their 10 actual wins.
To win the division and win 11 games, I’m counting on another MVP-caliber season out of C.J. Stroud, an improvement from Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and an average defense to be a problematic one. Specifically, I’ve got my eye on cornerback, Derek Stingley Jr., who I expect to make the leap from a solid starter to an All-Pro caliber corner and Will Anderson Jr. who is capable of being a DPOY some day Picking up Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair will also be huge for Matt Burke’s unit.
Though the Texans got lucky last year and don’t have an easy schedule this season, they will have their O-Line intact after the worst season of health on the line by any team in 40 years. C.J. Stroud with production? Good luck. I’ve got the Texans winning the division comfortably.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Unfortunately for Doug Pederson, I’m not sure he has his guy in Trevor Lawrence. I understand the outlandish circumstances of his rookie year with Urban Meyer and that he got hurt last season, but the reality is that Lawrence has only played one-half of a season of high-level football through three years. He also lost his most reliable target in Calvin Ridley last year and didn’t quite fill the void. Brian Thomas Jr. has great upside, but he’s still a second-round rookie, and I’ve already shared my thoughts on Gabe Davis in my AFC East preview.
I’m also not positive Doug Pederson has what it takes to bring Jacksonville to the playoffs. Since his first head coaching job in 2013, did you know that Pederson has only won over 10 games once? In one season, DeMeco Ryans won 10 games. Pederson didn’t unlock Lawrence last year and I’m starting to think that 2022 Lawrence was a one-hit wonder.
Defensively, the Jags are nothing to write home about. They were 16th in PPG allowed and 19th in YPG allowed. Josh Hines-Allen carried their front line with 17.5 sacks, but if he’s not on, the defense is subpar.
I have the Jags starting 5-3 and finishing 3-0, but from weeks 9-15, they’ve got Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit, Houston, Tennessee, and New York. I only see them beating Minnesota, thus, destroying their playoff hopes.
Indianapolis Colts
Everyone seems to be high on the Colts this season with some predicting Anthony Richardson as a potential MVP candidate. I think we should pump the breaks a little bit. Richardson is always at risk of injury with his physical playing style. He also has a tiny sample size in the NFL and might come back looking rusty in 2022. Defensively, the Colts are fun but relatively unproven and they might have to be the team’s lead unit if Richardson doesn’t play up to expectation.
One thing the Colts should feel great about is their offensive line. They kept the same starting five as last year—a starting five that made Gardner Minshew II look good. Jonathan Taylor behind that line makes the Colts dangerous offensively and gives them a high playoff ceiling.
Ultimately, some teams have to get unlucky and I think that will be the Colts who I predict will go 2-6 in their first eight weeks playing against some tough competition and rested opponents. Every one of those six teams had a winning record last year, so there’ll be little shame in a tough start. I see the Colts turning things around and finishing the year at 8-9 with a quality win over Buffalo and a few free ones down the stretch. All in all, it might not be the season Colts fans dreamed it would be, but they’ll feel good about Anthony Richardson and the rest of their guys going into 2025.
Tennessee Titans
Last preseason, I was high on the Titans as the best team in the South. I won’t make that mistake again. Tennessee is finally in rebuild mode in their first season with Brian Callahan at the helm. And just like the Colts, it’s going to be tough sledding through the first half of the year.
Chicago, New York, Green Bay, Miami, Indianapolis, Buffalo, Detroit, New England, and Los Angeles is one heck of a difficult first nine games and I believe the Titans will be a miserable 1-8 when that’s all set and done. I’m not very high on Will Levis, but unlike draft scouts, it’s not because he put mayonnaise in his coffee. Levis was good off-script but often struggled to make the easy throws. Of the 33 quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts, Levis ranked dead last in completion percentage with 58.4% and his passer rating of 84.2 was 26th amongst starters. Derrick Henry had been the head of the snake for half a decade in Music City, so his departure will only make life more difficult for Levis.
It’s the dirty work positions that lead me to believe Tennessee will struggle this season. Although they took JC Latham with the 7th pick in the draft, their offensive line has been miserable for a few seasons and counting, and their defense is very thin. In a difficult division, the Titans simply don’t have enough talent to make a splash bigger than 5-12.
Division Awards
Most Valuable Player: C.J. Stroud (Texans)
Offensive Player of the Year: Tank Dell (Texans)
Defensive Player of the Year: Josh Hines-Allen (Jaguars)
Rookie of the Year: JC Latham (Titans)
Coach of the Year: DeMeco Ryans (Texans)
Biggest X-Factor: Anthony Richardson (Colts)
Best Bets
Josh Hines-Allen to record 15+ sacks in the regular season (+600)
Hines-Allen totaled 17.5 last season and is only getting better. Why would he go under 15? This is an absolute steal.
AFC South division order to be Texans / Jaguars / Colts / Titans (+650)
It would be hard to imagine the Texans not getting first and the Titans not getting last. It will most likely just come down to predicting the Jaguars over the Colts correctly.
Tank Dell to be a 1,000-yard receiver (+280)
Dell was on pace for 1,205 yards before he got injured.
He is C.J. Stroud’s favorite target.