AFC West Preview
Last season, the Chiefs went under the radar, finishing with an uncharacteristically mediocre offense, but made everyone look silly by winning their final six games of the season en route to one of the most memorable championships in recent sports history.
This year, people are no longer sleeping on Kansas City who are on a rare quest for a threepeat—something that has never been done before. However, there is no shortage of teams capable of knocking the champs off their pedestal. Let’s see which teams I see having success this year.
Kansas City Chiefs
Another 13 wins and a 1 seed for the dynastic Chiefs. I would dive into the complexity of the Mahomes-Kelce-Reid mastermind, but it’s pretty self-explanatory at this point. With those three managing the offense along with what will be a top 10 defense at worst is guaranteed to win at least 11 games.
The difference is that the Chiefs have bolstered their receiving core from a league-worst and fairly comical last season to a serviceable group. Instead of signing another washed receiver like Juju Smith-Schuster in hopes that he would revive his career, the Chiefs were patient and drafted Rashee Rice who is now ready for a second-year leap. Call Marquise Brown tiny all you want, but he was once a 1,000-yard receiver for my Ravens—on offense led by a quarterback who to many of you, “can’t throw.” Finally, they drafted speed demon Xavier Worthy who has the ability to make splashes much like Tyreek Hill used to make in Kansas City.
I don’t see the Chiefs losing more than one game in their division, and aside from a few slip-ups against strong AFC teams including in week one, I see the Chiefs running the table and positioning themselves for another Lombardi.
Los Angeles Chargers
There is a lot of hype around the Chargers right now, so I had to be cautious. However, I’m buying most of the Jim Harbaugh stock and although I don’t have LA reaching the playoffs, I have them achieving a winning record for the third time in three years.
When Harbaugh got his first job as a Quarterbacks coach for the Raiders in 2002, he helped QB Rich Gannon win the MVP in his first season and Oakland won the Super Bowl that year after several years of playoff turmoil. In San Francisco, he took a 6-10 team and transformed them into a 13-3 in his first year. The next year, they made the Super Bowl, and in his first three seasons combined, the Niners went 36-11-1.
He has thrived outside of the NFL too, helping the University of San Diego go 11-1 and win their league in just his second season. At Stanford, Harbaugh adopted a 1-11 squad, and in four years, converted them to a 12-1 team and won the Orange Bowl. And of course, we all know about Jimmer’s success at Michigan. He took over in 2014, increasing the team’s win total by five in his first, and eventually went on to go undefeated and win the national championship in 2023.
The upgrade in tactics, leadership, and overall vibes from Brandon Staley to Harbaugh simply cannot be understated and anytime you pair an elite coach with an elite quarterback (yes, Justin Herbert is elite), you’re set up for some type of success.
Denver Broncos
Truthfully, I believe the Broncos will look better than 6-11 because Sean Payton elevates quarterbacks like the best of them. He found his guy in Bo Nix and Nix looked great in preseason, but the rest of the roster might still need some work.
I don’t trust Denver’s defense which ranked 3rd to last in DVOA last season and lost its anchor in Justin Simmons on the back line. Simmons is a two-time pro-bowler, a four-time second-team All-Pro, and was tied for the league lead in interceptions just two years ago. Now, Pat Surtain II is the only notable name on a defense that gave up 70 points last year.
I am also not a huge fan of Denver receiver corps. I have never been high on Courtland Sutton and losing Jerry Jeudy is a decent blow to Nix’s passing options.
The games that the Broncos will win will be because of Javonte Williams and the rushing attack, Payton’s mastery, and a couple of Nix show outs. I fear there might only be six of them.
Las Vegas Raiders
As you can tell, Las Vegas is one of my least favorite teams this season. Some are very high on the defense because of a strong front unit spearheaded by Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins, but nothing else catches my eye.
In a more surprising twist, people believe in the offense and I know exactly why. Everyone thinks that because Gardner Minshew II had a solid season in Indy, he’s poised to win 7 or 8 games in Vegas. It’s not every day you get to be a backup and walk into a situation with a top-5 O-Line, a great offensive coach, a balanced receiving group, and a former rushing leader, but that’s exactly with Gardner Minshew had. Take Jonathan Taylor and Shane Steichen and turn them into Zamir White and Antonio Pierce. The Colts line is miles better than the Raiders’ and don’t be surprised if Davante Adams is traded out of town after eight games.
The Raiders won eight games last season, but it was flukey. They only beat one opponent (the Chiefs) who had a winning record at the time and played tons of backup or low-end quarterbacks.
I’m predicting the wheels fall off for Vegas, and halfway through the year, we see a tank get underway. They’ll be this season’s laughingstock of the AFC.
Division Awards
Most Valuable Player: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)
Offensive Player of the Year: Joshua Palmer (Chargers)
Defensive Player of the Year: Maxx Crosby (Raiders)
Rookie of the Year: Joe Alt (Chargers)
Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh (Chargers)
Biggest X-Factor: Xavier Worthy (Chiefs)
Best Bets
Maxx Crosby over 11.5 sacks (-122)
Crosby has hit this over in back-to-back seasons and he has reinforcement in Wilkins along side him this season.
Raiders under 5.5 wins (+198)
Bad roster, bad coach, 24th hardest schedule, and terrible locker rooms vibes.
Raiders to score the least points this season (+800)
Same reasons I’ve already outlined.