Around the Associations Bracketology
Helping you make your league-winning bracket
American sports fans might answer with the Super Bowl or NBA Finals when asked what they think is the best sports event. Fans from across the globe might say the World Cup, Wimbledon, or The Masters. I’d have to disagree. To me, there are no two weeks more exciting than the NCAA tournament—March Madness.
Today, I’ll be showing you by bracket and explaining why I think certain upsets will occur. For those of you who follow college basketball, you probably don’t need my help, but for those who were invited to a join a league but no to little prior knowledge of college basketball like me back in 2018, I’ve got you. Here is bracket.
East Region
First Round
Biggest Upset: None. This is the only quarter of the bracket where I have no first-round upsets. However, if you’re looking for one, Drake seems to be the popular pick.
Best Value Pick: Washington State over Drake. It seems like everyone is pushing aside the fact that Washington State had the 33rd-ranked defense of 362 NCAA teams this year, beat Arizona twice, and finished second place in the Pac-12. As I’ve said, people are leaning towards Drake in this game but I feel it may be out of fear of picking no upsets, making Washington State a somewhat unpopular but smart pick. Pro tip: never pick an upset because you picked a few favorites in a row.
Second Round
Biggest Upset: None. I promise my bracket won’t be this boring for the entirety of this article. I just see the top four teams as leagues above the other 12 teams and San Diego State, who was last year’s finalist, is not up to par with a typical 5th seed.
Best Value Pick: BYU over Illinois. A large part of me wanted to go with BYU in this exciting round two matchup but I just couldn’t bet against Terrence Shannon when he’s clearly the best player on the court. But BYU has a 4-5 record against the top 25 including wins over Baylor, Kansas, red-hot Iowa State, and TCU. Illinois is just 1-4.
Sweet Sixteen
Biggest Upset: Auburn over UConn. Auburn has the tools to follow the blueprint of beating UConn that Creighton set in February. Despite playing against what will essentially be a UConn home crowd, Auburn will get the job done in Boston. More details are in the “Best Value Pick” section.
Best Value Pick: Auburn over UConn. Auburn is great on offense, averaging the 11th most PPG in the NCAA, but they are elite on defense. Their ball pressure could congest the Huskies’ offense given how reliant they are on their guards to set up the offense. Bruce Pearl is one of the most experienced coaches in the tournament and will know how to pin UConn if they get off to another slow start. I truly believe Auburn will knock out the reigning champs, and if they do, I’ll be one of the only people to predict it.
Elite Eight
Iowa State is scorching hot as I’ve mentioned, but when you beat the tournament favorite on the road, there’s nothing you don’t feel like you can do which is why I’m taking Auburn to come out of the East. I believe they could hold Iowa State to under 60 points in this game, and with their explosive athletes, I see them outscoring that total easily.
South Region
First Round
Biggest Upset: James Madison over Wisconsin. It doesn’t matter how weak their competition is—anytime a team is 31-3, you’ve got to give them some consideration. And JMU is more than just a good record. They’ve got a fierce front-court made up of Terrence Edwards—the Sun Belt Player of the Year—and his running mate T.J. Bickerstaff who snares 8.5 rebounds per game along with solid defense.
Best Value Pick: Texas Tech over NC State. The Red Raiders might be the minority vote in this matchup given how many people are riding the NC State ACC championship tidal wave. Don’t forget that Texas Tech has a better record, point differential, record against top-25 teams and a higher ranking than the Wolfpack. Finally, just because 11 seeds have had success in recent years against 6 seeds, guarantees nothing this year.
Second Round
Biggest Upset: NC State over Kentucky. I never trust a team that can’t defend in March Madness, especially against a confident, streaking team. Unfortunately for Kentucky, that’s what we have here. Antonio Reeves, Rob Dillingham, and Reed Sheppard are all terrific scorers, but the Wildcats allow nearly 80 points per game which is always a recipe for disaster against a team like NC State who has been defending well lately.
Best Value Pick: BOIS/COL over Marquette. Both of these teams are probably better than their seeding, and with the health of Tyler Kolek up in the air, they’ll have a shot to beat the Golden Eagles. People also tend to scoff when they see BOIS/COL without a logo in the bracket because it looks lame but do not let it fool you. Teams coming out of the first four historically have a better chance of making runs than other teams with their rank.
Sweet Sixteen
Biggest Upset: None. NC State’s glory run ends at seven games, and Houston’s core has been here too many times for an early-round exit.
Best Value Pick: Marquette over Kentucky. This sounds strange after saying BOIS/COL over Marquette provides good value, but on the other side of things, if Marquette is fully healthy, I believe they are clearly the better squad in a potential sweet sixteen matchup with Kentucky. However, most casual fans see Kentucky’s star power and think it’ll be enough to take them to the Elite 8.
Elite Eight
Houston will get the best of Marquette in a low-scoring affair and make it back to the Final Four for the first time since 2021. At the end of the day, Houston’s defense suffocates opponents, especially on the perimeter. Kam Jones and Tyler Kolek are Marquette’s two best players, are both guards and will have trouble being guarded by LJ Cryer and Jamal Shead. Houston wins by eight or nine.
West Region
First Round
Biggest Upset: New Mexico over Clemson. New Mexico has a solid record against teams in the 8-10 seed range and is 3-3 against the top 25. Clemson is 2-2 against the top 25 but has been less consistent on offense than New Mexico. And who doesn’t love to hit on a 6 vs 11 game.
Best Value Pick: Nevada over Dayton. Many believe that the seeding in this matchup should be flipped so Nevada is the 7 seed. At the very least, they are equals. More people will pick Dayton because of the 7 next to their name making Nevada the smarter pick in your bracket pool.
Second Round
Biggest Upset: Michigan State over North Carolina. Michigan State is ranked too low. ESPN has them as the 18th-best team according to BPI—the usual range for a 5 or 6 seed. North Carolina is the most susceptible 1 seed to an early-round upset to me, so why not roll the dice on the Spartans. And despite Hubert Davis’ strong start to his head coaching career, give me Tom Izzo in a big game.
Best Value Pick: Baylor over Clemson/New Mexico. Baylor is one of those teams that is not on the radar of the casual fan. They don’t have the flashiest names—Ja’Kobe Walter is a nitty gritty guy—and outside of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, their core is unrecognizable to their championship roster in 2021. But Baylor would be favored against Clemson and New Mexico, giving them great value in the Round of 32.
Sweet Sixteen
Biggest Upset: Michigan State over Saint Mary’s. If Michigan State can beat North Carolina, they sure as hell can beat the Gaels, who I believe will benefit from a soft first two rounds. I also trust Michigan State much more in a close game. 16 of their last 17 games have been decided by 10 or fewer points, and unlike St. Mary’s, they have a go-to guy who can handle the ball in crunch time with Tyson Walker (Northeastern should have retained him).
Best Value Pick: Baylor over whoever. Once again, I think the answer is Baylor here. If you asked 100 casual fans who would win in a neutral-site Arizona vs Baylor duel, at least 70% of them would answer Arizona. Give me the underdog in that case.
Elite Eight
In a similar fashion to FAU last year, a 9 seed will shock the world and advance to the Final Four. To be honest with you, I don’t have much resolve for picking Michigan State over Arizona other than I want to ride the Spartan wave all the way to Arizona, and I believe they will have the personnel, coaching, and momentum on their side by the time they square off with the Wildcats. Give me Michigan State.
Midwest Region
First Round
Biggest Upset: Samford over Kansas. Kansas looks incredibly vulnerable right now. Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. have both been injured which has led to a 30-point loss to Houston in their final regular season game and a 20-point drubbing from Cincinnati in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament. Samford plays very fast and can get hot from beyond the arc. Historically, I’ve been good at picking 4 vs 13 matchups. I hit on Ohio and Furman beating Virginia in 2021 and 2023, respectively, so you can trust me here. I think Samford’s upside will guide them to victory here.
Best Value Pick: Colorado State over Texas. Texas is a big name in college basketball and has big-name players with Max Abmas and Tyrese Hunter. However, I only needed diehard Texas fan, Josh Sun, to tell me they should not be trusted. Colorado State just crushed UVA 67-42 in the first four and as I mentioned in the South region, first four teams are always dangerous.
Second Round
Biggest Upset: Samford over McNeese. For the same reasons that I picked Samford over Kansas, I like them to beat McNeese. Truthfully, I think Kansas would beat both Gonzaga and McNeese, so there’s no reason Samford shouldn’t be able to move past McNeese into the Sweet Sixteen
Best Value Pick: Purdue over Utah State/TCU. Many brackets this year are taking Purdue’s three straight years with losses to double-digit seeds in the tournament into account, and fair enough, but I’ve seen too many brackets picking Utah State or TCU to upset the Boilermakers. Zach Edey has still been incredible this season, and I see him dominating both of these teams’ bigs.
Sweet Sixteen
Biggest Upset: Creighton over Tennessee. Creighton’s lights-out shooting coupled with Kalkbrenner’s monstrous presence in the paint will be enough to get over the hump. If Dalton Knecht gets hot, which he has on a regular basis, the Blue Jays could be in trouble, but overall, I see them making the Volunteers one-dimensional and holding them to under 60 points in a winning effort.
Best Value Pick: Tennessee over Creighton. The problem with that last pick is that everyone sees what I see and is picking against Tennessee. Knecht isn’t all the Volunteers have and if they are comfortable in their offense, they will win which could provide great value in your bracket pool.
Elite Eight
Creighton’s size will do enough to slow down Zach Edey and make Purdue turn to their secondary options which they struggled to do against FDU last year. I’m picking Creighton because they are better coached, have more versatility, and because picking against Purdue is fun.
Final Four and Championship
Oftentimes, the change of scenery from the original player site to the Final Four can alter a team’s performance. I suspect Auburn will be more ready for the moment than Michigan State, and the Spartans will struggle to shoot the ball against Auburn’s terrific perimeter defense.
Creighton, on the other hand, is ready for the moment—they were just a point away from reaching the Final Four last year. But Houston has been too close too many times to be denied. Jamal Shead and Houston’s upperclassmen will refuse to go down and they’ll move onto the National Championship in gritty fashion.
In the championship game, I see Houston getting off to a fast start and opening up an early ten-point lead. Though I believe Auburn will keep pace/outscore Houston in the final 30 minutes of the game, it wouldn’t be enough, and Kelvin Sampson’s guys will capture the National Title, giving me the first perfect bracket of all time.
Thanks for reading my limited expertise on college basketball. Hopefully, I helped you pick an upset or gave you a sense of teams that can make deep runs. But if there’s anything we’ve learned about the NCAA Tournament, you shouldn’t trust a word I say. After all, this is March Madness.