ATA Betting: The 6 Best Over/Under Props for this NFL Season
The NFL held their annual Hall of Fame game last week and although cut short by minacious weather, it was a surprisingly entertaining contest between the Bears and Texans. The beginning of the NFL season is finally in sight and since I’m tired of recapping NBA free agency, summer league, and other rumors, today’s article will cover the best win totals to bet on for the 2024-2025 season.
I’ll cover a wide variety of teams all on different paths to contention who I think are either poised to surpass their expectations or are set up for failure by their line. I live by one rule when I make these articles: Never bet in favor of or against a team with a rookie quarterback. You never know when you might have a C.J. Stroud on your hands. Or a Bryce Young for that matter.
Just make sure to remember the golden rule: If you take my bets and win, I’ll take the credit. If you take my bets and lose, it’s your fault for listening to me.
6. Texans over 9.5 wins
Unless oddsmakers are still concerned with C.J. Stroud’s low score on his S2 test before his rookie season, there is no reason the Texans shouldn’t win 10 games this season for the simple reasons that they are young and upgraded their roster.
Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell still have lots of room to grow from last season, and adding Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon in the offseason gives Houston one of the most potent offensive cores in the league when coupled with an established offensive line lead by 4-time Pro-Bowler Laremy Tunsil.
Houston is ascending on defense too. Former #3 overall picks, Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr., are both on the rise to stardom. Though Jonathan Greenard was an big loss in the middle, the Texans arguably upgraded by signing Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair as well as Jeff Okudah in the secondary.
DeMeco Ryans also has one year under his belt and should come into year two with more confidence and an improved game plan.
Within the AFC South, the Titans are in a transition year with a rookie head coach, the Jaguars finished the season 3-6 last time we saw them, and the Colts haven’t reached the playoffs with their current core. With all the things considered, the Texans deserve to be favorites to win the division and should win at least four division games.
Finally, I am a big believer of health and luck variance. If a team was not healthy or unlucky a season ago, I expect the law of long run probability to bring them back to normal or above average in those categories in the following season. The Texans had the worst offensive line injury luck in NFL history leading to a concussion suffered by Stroud that caused him to miss two critical games.
It seems very reasonable to expect the Texans to win at least the same amount of games as they did last season.
5. Jets over 9.5 wins
I see the Texans and the Jets very similarly. With the roster New York has, they have no excuse to win less than 9.5 games this season.
Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian comprised the worst QB room in the NFL last season and it showed in their offensive DVOA rating which ranked dead last in the league. Their offensive line was in shambles all year, their strength of schedule was 8th hardest, they had a negative luck rating, and they play in a division with two contenders. And somehow they managed to win seven games.
If last year is any indication, the Jets don’t need Aaron Rodgers to be superman to hit the 9.5 line. Though they have loftier expectations than 10 wins, they just need serviceable quarterback play to back up an elite defense that ranked 3rd in defensive DVOA and 2nd in yards per game allowed last season.
Contrary to last season, the Jets have a very easy schedule. It ranks 4th behind the Falcons and the Bears who aren’t in their conference, as well as the Chargers who will not be contending for anything this season. They have four games against three of the four worst teams by projected win total (the Patriots twice, the Titans, and the Broncos) as well as games against the Vikings and the Cardinals. That should be five wins right there. Incredibly, the Jets’ only opponents that won at least one playoff game last season are the Bills, Texans, and 49ers. Everybody else is either a touch above mediocre or worse.
I’m betting on things not to catastrophically wrong for New York as they did last season. With Rodgers under center, a projected top-5 runningback in Breece Hall, a star wide receiver in Garrett Wilson as well as rumors to trade for Davante Adams, a re-tooled offensive line, and a top-notch defense, the Jets should absolutely win 10 games this season.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 7.5
Nobody quite knows how Baker Mayfield did it last year, but it seems fair to expect that he won’t replicate his stunning turnaround in 2024. For starters, Mayfield has a history of following up a great season with a forgettable one. Here, you can see that after successful seasons in his first and third years, he took a big dip in production in years two and four.
Year six was incredibly successful for the Bakeshow, but all signs point to a year of decline in 2024.
Mayfield will also be without his transformational quarterback coach Dave Canales who is now the head coach of a Carolina Panthers team that has no direction to go but up after a miserable 2023 when they went 2-15. They aren’t the only NFC South foe on track to improve—Atlanta is the projected division winner with newly acquired quarterback Kirk Cousins, and the Saints were one of the most unhealthy and unlucky teams last season. They’re posed for a revival.
Tampa Bay was the third luckiest team in the NFL last season and had the 8th easiest strength of schedule. Their preseason win total last season was only 5.5 and their roster is relatively the same this year as last year. All things considered, everything went their way in 2023, I do not trust that will happen again in 2024.
Last season was an incredible high for Tampa Bay, but they will come back down to earth this season.
The under on the Buccaneers is one of my favorite bets of any this season, but there are three lines that I like even more. Stay tuned for part two!
Jets are losing both games to the Patriots like usual