Boston Celtics Analysis: The Beast of the East
This will be my first article in 48 days—one for every win that the league-leading Celtics have this season. At first, I was just burnt out from a long NFL season. For 20 straight weeks, I had written panel picks articles and power rankings while trying to publish as many other articles as I could in between, but I couldn’t find a way to balance the championship weekend and Super Bowl articles with my other responsibilities. While we’re on the topic, I promise to give the final results of the ATA Panel Picks competition which I’m sure Rahul Babu will be especially pleased about.
About halfway through my hiatus, I figured I was ready to switch gears to NBA action. I started writing an article in which I created a formula to calculate how Joel Embiid’s 2023-2024 season would have stacked up against the best MVP seasons of all time if he had stayed healthy. On day three of writing, I realized that I simply didn’t have enough knowledge on the NBA to be writing about it. Truthfully, I feel as though being so fixated on the NFL recently has led to a slight fall off in my attention towards basketball since the beginning of last season. I decided to learn as much as I could about the state of the league at the moment, what teams and players are doing to perform well this season, as well as the unseen nuances of the game that only the most devoted of fans look out for.
In doing so, I delved into a number of basketball podcasts. The Lowe Post, which I have been an on and off listener of in the last year and a half, The Old Man and the Three with JJ Redick, The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Dunker Spot with Steve Jones Jr. and Nekias Duncan, and the occasional episode of Podcast P with Paul George have been my most frequent podcasts. With this regrown knowledge of mine about the NBA, I’m ready to kickstart a huge three months of nonstop content (articles and podcasts) diving into the what has potential be one of the best finishes to an NBA season in history.
For the next three weeks, I’ll be taking a deep dive into the twenty teams that occupy playoff and play-in spots in the standings, telling you what they have and what they lack to make a deep run in the playoffs as well as my projections for every team. First up: the Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics (48-14, 0 GB)
The Positive
Boston is coming off back to back losses to Cleveland and Denver for the first time in four months, but don’t let that fool you. Boston is still the top dog in the Eastern conference standings and they have played like it all season. They are first in offensive rating and second only to Minnesota in defensive rating. Since the All-Star break, in the midst of a season-high 11-game win streak, Boston has lapped the field on offense with an offensive rating 5.9 points higher than second ranked Sacramento—the same gap that separates Sacramento and the 14th place Clippers.
The primary reasons for the Celtics’ uptick in productivity on both ends have been the additions of former All-Stars Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. Porzingis has fit like a glove into the Boston offense, and has unlocked the pick and pop. He’s is sixth in the league in PPG per game in pick scenarios and of the screeners averaging at least 3.0 PPG on picks, Porzingis ranks sixth in points per possession with 1.33. His defensive impact in the paint should not go without stating either. He’s averaging 1.8 blocks per game—his highest output since 2019. As for Holiday, he has rounded out the Celtics’ defense perfectly. He is not just a lockdown one on one defender in isolation situations but is very capable of switching onto big men. Holiday and White are far and away the best defensive backcourt in the NBA, and give coach Joe Mazzulla the liberty of not having to double team or blitz the top guards when other teams might. For example, other coaches have been blitzing Jalen Brunson recently due to his ability to score in one on one situations and the lack of supporting options on an injury-riddled New York squad, but against the Knicks, Mazzulla left Holiday and White on him.
Holiday and White also bring steadiness and shot making on offense that Boston hasn’t had in seasons prior. Marcus Smart only shot above 35% from three once in his career and had a tendency to be a bit sporadic with the ball in his hands in late game scenarios. Holiday and White are shooting highly efficient three-point percentages of 44.3% and 40.1%, respectively, and both have been highly protective of the ball crunch time White has the third most assists of any player with no turnovers in clutch time this season with eight and Holiday has a solid AST:TO ratio of 13:5 in the clutch.
But let’s not kid ourselves about the engines that make Boston go. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are playing as well as they ever had, and just as importantly, they have accepted their roles in this new offense even if that has meant a dip in shot opportunities. Brown is only averaging 22.8 points per game but has put up a career high in field goal percentage, offensive rating, and win shares per 48 minutes. Translation: he may not be playing at the highest volume but he is playing more efficiently than ever. Tatum is averaging a career high in those same statistics as well as a career-best 4.8 assists. Just by watching Tatum, you can see immense progressions in his vision that all the best players in the league possess.
More positive for Boston: they’ve been incredible at home this season (29-3) and with a league lead in record by 4.5 games, they’re in great position to have the postseason run through hostile TD Garden. Boston also has the most experience of any Eastern Conference team (about tied with Miami in my opinion). That will play to their advantage against young upstarts like Cleveland, New York, Orlando, or Indiana if Boston meets them in the playoffs.
One final point: If injury were to plague Jayson Tatum in the next month, Boston is the only team I feel would be favored in a first-round playoff series without their best player. They have enough playmakers on their team, shown by White, Sam Hauser, Porzingis, Tatum, Payton Pritchard, and Al Horford being the top six players in terms of net rating, and are good enough to beat 3-4 Eastern Conference teams without their best guy.
The Negative
Almost every clutch time metric supports the Celtics, but something just doesn’t look right when they are in close games in the final five minutes. Maybe it’s what seems to be a strange shot selection, Jayson Tatum’s inability to hit a game-winning shot, or the fact that Boston has finished 27th and 29th in clutch win percentage in two of the three prior seasons. Boston has also lost two very close games to Cleveland and Denver this week. However, there is one statistic that explains some of untrustworthiness I feel towards Boston late in games. They are 4th in isolation rate in the clutch which explains a lot of Tatum’s one on one play calls on the final possession, but more importantly, they are 27th in points per possession when they go iso in clutch time.
Overall, Boston leaves an unsettling taste in your mouth with some of their playoff choke jobs in the past. Though Joe Mazzulla has shown clear improvement in year two, he was severely out-coached by Erik Spoelstra in the conference finals last season. Similarly, Tatum and Brown are not always consistently great in seven game series’.
Tatum’s scoring in his best seven scoring games of the 2023 playoffs: 31 vs ATL, 39 vs PHI, 36 vs PHI, 51 vs PHI, 34 vs MIA, 33 vs MIA, 31 vs MIA
Average: 36.4 PPG
Tatum’s scoring in the games following his seven best games of the 2023 playoffs: 19 vs ATL, 7 vs PHI, 19 vs PHI, 30 vs MIA, 14 vs MIA, 21 vs MIA, 14 vs MIA
Average: 17.7 PPG
Point being: Tatum is consistently inconsistent which has the ability to end a team’s season in a heartbeat. Brown had seven games in the 2023 playoffs of under 20 points (five on the road) which is too many for a second option whose third option at the time was Marcus Smart.
Boston’s lack of bench production could also be a red flag in the playoffs. Against Denver, they lost the bench scoring battle 28-10, and beyond Al Horford, none of their other second rotation guys have any full-time playoff experience.
One more observation from the Denver game: Porzingis’ stretch five style was effective on offense against the Nuggets because Jokic was forced to switch onto Holiday frequently—a role in which the Joker struggled, but on defense, Porzingis was too small to halt the Jokic post-up which is the most difficult play to guard in the league to begin with. Boston will need good minutes behind The Unicorn from Horford and Xavier Tillman who provide stockier, tougher builds.
Good Matchups
Philadelphia 76ers: You need not look into statistics and matchups to know that Boston would be happy to cross paths with Philadelphia. In 2018, they defeated the Sixers 4-1 without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, 4-0’d them in the 2020, and outlasted them 4-3 last season. Especially with the revamped Celtics roster and Embiid’s injury risk, there’s no team I feel more comfortable against as a Celtics fan than Philly.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Cleveland features that best three guard tandem in the Eastern Conference with Donovan Mitchell who has been the best guard in the East this season, Darius Garland, and Caris LeVert off the bench. Boston matches up very well with them with Holiday and White excelling at staying in front of quick, athletic guards like them. Secondly, Porzingis being such a good long range shooter is bad for Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley who like to operate near the rim on defense.
Bad Matchups
Miami Heat: It goes without reasoning that the Heat strike a little bit of fear into the Celtics’ eyes. They stunned the Celtics in round three of their Cinderella run to the Finals last season, and take their level up several notches once they enter the playoffs—a level good enough to compete with any team in the league. Though Celtics fans will argue that their roster tweaks put the Heat out of reach, Miami has quietly played much better this season than last. Regardless of injury, standing, and game situation, the Heat remain a threat.
I don’t believe any other team is a “bad matchup” for Boston, but unlike the rest of the East, Milwaukee possesses a freak in Giannis Antetokounmpo that can never be counted out. Outside of Miami, I’d give them the best chance of any East team to eliminate the Celtics.
My Projection
I see the Celtics representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. Their only chance of losing will be a close seven-game series against Miami in the conference semifinals or Milwaukee in the conference finals.
If they reach the NBA Finals, I see them as a slight favorite over Oklahoma City and Minnesota, a slight underdog against Denver, and a favorite over anyone else including the Clippers.
Bottom line: The Celtics are on pace to be the second best regular season team in the last six years (Phoenix in 2022). They can get by any team on paper, but in the playoffs, it’s not always about the talent on your roster, it’s about championship pedigree—a quality that each Milwaukee, Miami, and Denver all have a tick more of than Boston. I won’t argue against the analytics that say Boston are the title favorites, but as is the case any team, there is still plenty to fear.