Conference Championships Deep Dive: Predictions, Explanations, and More
It’s been 20 weeks since we were clamoring over the start of another NFL campaign and now we are staring down the finish line. The conference championships have arrived and they are almost guaranteed to entertain.
Five of the last seven AFC championship games have been decided by one score including two game-winning field goals in 2021 and 2022. Games like the Patriots’ miraculous fourth-quarter comeback against the Jaguars in 2017, their thrilling overtime win over the Chiefs in 2018, Cincy’s incredible upset of the Chiefs in 2021, and KC’s revenge against the Bengals a year later have redefined championship weekend as one of the best days in sports.
One media pundit who shall rightfully remain nameless has campaigned for the AFC Championship’s name to be changed to the Arrowhead Invitational. While a name change might be a stretch, he’s got a good point. This is the Chiefs’ seventh straight AFC championship appearance and their sixth time hosting it with last year being the lone time they traveled for the game. This season, they’re playing the Bills in a game that promises to be a nail-biter. The last five fixtures between Kansas City and Buffalo have been decided by an average of five points, including perhaps the greatest game ever in the 2022 divisional round, last year’s tight divisional round game, and the Bills’ partial revenge earlier this year. There’s history everywhere you look in this game, making it quite frankly unforgivable if you miss it.
The NFC Championship game has the same implications—a trip to Super Bowl LIX—but an entirely different storyline. No rookie quarterback has ever started in the Super Bowl and if I were to tell you before the season that Jayden Daniels would be the first to do so, you would have laughed at me. Washington was 4-13 last year and had a 6.5 preseason win total, +285 odds to make the playoffs, +4000 odds to make the conference championship, and +15000 odds to win the Super Bowl. It was out of the question that they’d do this well.
Philadelphia wasn’t exactly a shoo-in themselves. After their week four loss to the Buccaneers, I told the Eagles to blow it up. I thought they had a stagnant offense, a terrible defense and an incompetent coach. I even had them at 22nd in my power rankings. All they did in response was to finish the season 12-1 and win their first two playoff games.
The lesson: it’s not about how you start, it’s about how you finish. I wouldn’t have put ten dollars on this being the NFC Championship matchup at +10000 odds, but here we are.
We’re in store for a thrilling Sunday with two marquee games on the slate. Ben and I wasted no time digging into each one, offering our expert opinions and analysis that you can get regularly on this page and on Ben’s page Beyond the Box Score.
Let’s dig in.
(1) Kansas City Chiefs vs (2) Buffalo Bills
Webb: Chiefs 23-21
Bills vs Chiefs has cemented itself as the best rivalry of the decade. Believe it or not, no two teams in different divisions have played more games in a four-year span this century (this is their eighth game since January 24th, 2021). Bills vs Chiefs has delivered some timeless classics over the years and given the stakes, this AFC championship rematch might just take the cake as the most important Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes battle ever.
Nobody is under more pressure in this game than Josh Allen, but if this postseason is any indicator, he won’t have to carry much of a load. The Bills only let him throw a ten-yard pass four times all game against the Ravens and only one of them was completed. Despite Allen’s bazooka for an arm, the Bills’ offense revolves around their ground game. Buffalo has averaged 136.2 rushing yards per game this year which is ninth in the NFL and the team’s highest mark since Allen became their quarterback in 2018. They’ve run the ball 30.1 times per game this year (7th in the league), but in the playoffs, that number has leaped to 40 while Allen is only averaging 28 passing attempts per game.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, the Chiefs’ rush defense is stout and always kicks into high gear in the playoffs. They were 6th in yards per carry allowed and 5th in runs over 20 yards allowed. That said, they are susceptible to breaking down. Last season, against Buffalo in the divisional round, they allowed 182 yards and two touchdowns on the ground on 39 carries. If Buffalo can get off to an early lead by running the football and force the Chiefs to throw from behind, I like their chances.
While Buffalo’s run offense against Kansas City’s run defense is the most important matchup in my opinion, it’s not the most important factor. These two teams are devilishly similar—both front offices mortgaged their passing game for offensive linemen, defense, and a strong run game with trust that their star QBs would be able to produce.
But the Chiefs have something the Bills don’t—the X-factor. Or perhaps I should call it the Mahomes factor. I mean, here’s a guy who, no matter how dire the circumstance, seems to do just enough to squeak by—especially in the playoffs and especially against the Bills. Mahomes has played in 19 games and has won 16 of them but the stats are even more unbelievable. Here are his playoff stats scaled to 16 games next to his incredible 2019 MVP season.
MVP season: 66.0% completion, 5,097 yards, 50 TD, 12 INT, 113.8 RTG
Playoff career: 67.4% completion, 4,473 yards, 35 TD, 7 INT, 108.5 RTG
The completion percentage and TD-to-INT ratio are better in the playoffs and the yards and passer rating aren’t far off either. He’s the greatest playoff QB ever and hits a whole different level when he plays Buffalo. Here are his playoff stats against the Bills.
3-0 record, 75.2% completion, 306.0 YPG, 8 TD, 0 INT, 127.4 RTG
Just incredible. And I don’t want to hear the “he doesn’t have receivers” or “his O-Line won’t hold up” arguments, or worst of all the “Mahomes isn’t as good as he used to be” claim. This guy is S-tier in the playoffs and has played in this game in this stadium too many times to flounder in the biggest moment.
I’ll end with this. Buffalo was lucky to escape the Baltimore game. Three turnovers was very uncharacteristic for the Ravens and yet, they almost came back to win. I haven’t been very high on Buffalo all season and while they’ve somewhat proven me wrong, I don’t like their chances against a Kansas City team that doesn’t turn the ball over in the postseason. They only have five turnovers in their last eight playoff games (would be 2nd in the NFL this season) and Patrick Mahomes has only thrown one playoff interception in his last three seasons. I feel comfortable picking the two-time reigning champs here even if it’s close.
Ben: Bills 35-27
In their eighth matchup over the last five years - and their third meeting in the playoffs - Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are set for another heavyweight showdown. Mahomes has gone 3-0 in those playoff meetings, but some believe this year may be different. Here are my thoughts.
This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs went 9-0 this season and are 13-2 in the Mahomes era during the postseason. The Bills, on the other hand, come into this game with a 5-4 record on the road. Home-field advantage is often a deciding factor in late playoff games, and Arrowhead’s electric atmosphere is not to be underestimated.
All season, the Chiefs have been an elite defensive unit, allowing just 19.2 points per game. Their strengths lie in their elite run defense and their ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks. However, executing this game plan against Buffalo will be challenging, as we saw in their regular-season matchup. Ignoring a Week 18 loss where the Chiefs rested their starters, the Bills scored the most points the Chiefs allowed all season in their 30-21 win. Buffalo was the only team to beat Kansas City in a real game this year.
Last week, the Chiefs dominated the Texans’ offensive line, suffocating rookie C.J. Stroud and controlling the trenches. But the Bills’ offensive line is significantly better, and Josh Allen was historically good under pressure this year. The Chiefs won’t be able to disrupt Allen consistently, and even when they do, bringing him down is no guarantee. It’s worth noting that despite their win, the Texans outgained the Chiefs by over 100 yards. Historically, teams that out-gain their opponents by 100+ yards and commit zero turnovers were 46-0 before that game. If the Bills create a similar yardage advantage, Kansas City can’t rely on Buffalo failing to convert those opportunities into points. Especially considering that the Bills have outscored the Chiefs 213-211 in their eight meetings.
The key to this game will be the Chiefs’ offense. Nearly every Mahomes-Allen showdown has turned into a shootout, but Kansas City hasn’t scored more than 30 points in a game this season. Their Week 11 matchup proved that 30+ points will likely be necessary to secure a win. That said, Travis Kelce’s resurgence last week is a game-changer. Not to mention, Kelce has torched the Bills in every playoff matchup, with at least 75 yards and a touchdown each time.
Buffalo’s defense remains a question mark. While they held the Ravens’ top-ranked offense in check last week, a lot of their success was circumstantial. Lamar Jackson’s interception was a gift, his fumble was unforced, and Mark Andrews’ dropped pass was the only reason the game didn’t go to overtime. Meanwhile, the Chiefs haven’t turned the ball over in eight weeks; however the last time they did was against the Bills.
This game feels like a true coin flip. Although it’s risky to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, I think this is finally the year the Bills get over the hump. This game will undoubtedly be a shootout, and Buffalo is better equipped this season to put up points. Give me the Bills to make the Super Bowl.
(2) Philadelphia Eagles vs (6) Washington Commanders
Webb: Eagles 31-20
No one has been higher on the Commanders than me; I picked them to beat Tampa Bay and Detroit and obviously, they read Around the Associations because both games went exactly how I expected them to. However, the Eagles are a test that the Commanders will have to be pre-prepared for if they stand a chance this Sunday.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way with Philly. Jalen Hurts is not even close to Jayden Daniels, nor is he close to being a top-10 QB in the NFL. With a bum knee, he becomes their definite weakest link. However, Philly doesn’t need Hurts to be Superman in order to win and there is history to back it up. Hurts is 4-3 in his playoff career and here’s how he’s performed in those games.
4-0 in games where he passes for under 160 yards
0-3 in games where he passes for over 250 yards
Everyone always praises Hurts for his electric Super Bowl performance, but the reality is that the more Hurts does, the worse. That’s especially true this year with Saquon Barkley having one of the best seasons of all time at the runningback position.
The Washington rush defense is third to last in yards per carry and yards per game allowed this season—it’s their true weak link. Detroit posted a whopping 8.7 yards per carry on 21 attempts last Sunday against Washington, including RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs who had 175 yards on just 20 touches. In fact, the reason the Commanders won that game was due to the turnovers forced by their pass rush making Jared Goff uncomfortable and their secondary picking off his wobbly throws.
If you’re Philly, there seems to be a pretty clear-cut solution. Give the ball to Barkley 30+ times. You didn’t rest him in week 18 for nothing, right? He’s fared incredibly well against Washington all year, too. Here are the numbers.
Week 11: 26 carries, 146 yards, 2 touchdowns
Week 16: 29 carries, 150 yards, 2 touchdowns
Plus, whenever the Eagles have needed a big chunk play to seal a game this season, Barkley has done it for them. It’s fair to suggest that this game will be close given how many tight games the Commanders have played this year, but unlike many of their opponents, the Eagles have an elite closer. In the fourth quarter this season, Barkley has 6.6 yards per carry and six touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, respect must be owed to Jayden Daniels who is having the greatest season of all time for a rookie QB and passed for five touchdowns in the Commanders’ last meeting with the Eagles.
Daniels is playing better than any quarterback left in the playoffs right now (he has scored the most points, and has the most yards and touchdowns). However, the Eagles’ defense has been stifling all year long, particularly their rush defense which allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns all season. If the Eagles’ defense can keep Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler out of the game, they stand a better chance of winning. Washington’s win percentage this season dips from 80% to 67% when Daniels is their leading rusher. Ultimately, Philly’s defense forced the fifth-most turnovers in the NFL this season (26) and I expect them to hawk at least one ball in this game.
The final thing that I’m concerned about for the Commanders is the climate. Daniels played at ASU and LSU for his entire college career and to this point in the NFL, the coldest away game that he’s played in 56°F against the Giants back in early November. With a raucous crowd and temperatures in the mid-30s, one or two uncharacteristic plays might occur that could ultimately change the outlook of the game. As much as it pains me to say it, give me the Chiefs vs the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
Ben: Eagles 31-24
These two teams met just a few weeks ago when the red-hot Commanders pulled off a 36-33 victory after Jalen Hurts went down with an injury.
Last week, the Commanders dismantled the #1 seed Lions, shifting the national media’s opinion of Washington. A team once considered a red-hot, up-and-coming Cinderella story is now being taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender. However, in the world’s rush to embrace the incredible story of Jayden Daniels, many seem to forget that the Lions’ defense had 16 players on injured reserve. The Eagles’ elite defense is healthy and ready to go.
In their most recent matchup, the Commanders committed five turnovers but still managed to win because Kenny Pickett failed to capitalize on those opportunities. While I doubt the Eagles can force five turnovers again, they’re likely to cause chaos - especially with Sam Cosmi absent from Washington’s offensive line. Jalen Carter and the Eagles’ defensive front should be able to pressure Daniels, and how he handles that pressure will be a key factor in this game.
In that same game, the Eagles jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead with Jalen Hurts at the helm. Despite the Commanders rallying for the win, they struggled to truly stop the Eagles’ offense - even when Kenny Pickett was under center. Washington pulled off the victory in typical Commanders fashion: a nail-biting shootout. But if they couldn’t convincingly beat the Eagles with Pickett, I don’t see them doing it against a healthy Hurts.
While Hurts is nursing a knee injury that limited his mobility against the Rams, the Eagles have consistently proven they can win even when he’s not at his best. They just need him to be serviceable - and he always is.
In last week’s win over the Lions, the Commanders’ defense was shredded by Jahmyr Gibbs, who ran for 104 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries. Why the Lions deferred to David Montgomery remains a mystery, but it exposed Washington’s inability to stop the run. They allowed the third-most rushing yards of any team this season, and Saquon Barkley has already torched them for 296 yards and four touchdowns this year. When Hurts played in their first matchup, he added 40 rushing yards and a touchdown of his own. While Hurts may not be rushing too often on Sunday, Barkley has been in elite form throughout these playoffs, and the Commanders pose the weakest rush defense he’s faced so far.
I’m as big a fan of Jayden Daniels and the Commanders as anyone, but the Cinderella story ends here. As someone who considers themselves the biggest Eagles hater around, it pains me to say this: the Eagles are headed to the Super Bowl.
That’s all, folks! Enjoy the championship games this Sunday.
 | A guest post by
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Great article with strong analysis from you both but Daniels will dazzle while Hurts stumbles and offsets Barkley and a more talented Eagles team. Commanders win with a late field goal.