Denver Nuggets Analysis: Mile High On Their Own Supply
It took some time to come around to the idea that Denver was the championship favorite, but I’m there, and frankly, I’ve been there for almost two months. All it took was to watch some Nuggets’ primetime games to realize how unstoppable they were when playing at their peak, and that no team is capable of pushing them to seven games at that level.
We all know that Nikola Jokic is a cheat code and a top 20 player of all time. We all know that Jamal Murray turns into prime MJ in big games. But beyond the excellence of those two, what makes the Nuggets so great?
P.S. Forgive me if this article is more of a Jokic praise session than a Nuggets preview.
Denver Nuggets (51-23, 0.5 GB)
The Positive
I’ll get into the players, lineups, numbers, and schemes that make the Nuggets title favorites, but let’s start things off by keeping it simple. They are the only team with Nikola Jokic. With that, they already have a massive advantage over the rest of the league because Jokic is one of a kind. Never has there been such a lethal combination of brute strength and efficiency in one-on-one situations passing ability from any big man— let’s take that a step further: any player ever.
In simpler terms, there is not a single answer for Jokic. He posts up more than any player in the NBA with a post-up frequency of 25.8% and shoots 60.8% on 1.14 points per possession in doing so (ridiculous efficiency for such high frequency). He is far and away the leader in points per game on post touches (6.8) and elbow touches (4.8).
When the double team comes, Jokic immediately turns on his superhuman radar for open shooters and cutters. Nobody in the league is better than slipping the ball between the double to Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun, or [insert Nuggets cutter] than the Serbian, and nobody has better disguise and timing while doing so. All in all, the Nuggets are 3rd in cutting frequency and 6th in points per possession on cuts.
When defenders come help to shut off the lane to the cutter, Jokic is a wizard at seeking out the open three-point shooters. He is part of two of the top assist combos in the NBA this season—7th with Michael Porter Jr and 5th with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope who are Denver’s top two catch-and-shoot snipers. It’s worth noting that every other passer in the top-9 of the assist combos rankings was a point guard, further displaying that Jokic is an anomaly.
The Importance of KCP and MPJ on Offense
Michael Porter Jr:
40.3% 3PFG
45.9% FG on catch-and-shoot
7.3 PPG on catch-and-shoot (6th in NBA)
44.0% 3PFG on catch-and-shoot (16th)
124 FGM between 20 and 24 feet (1st)
47.9% FG from 20-24 feet (11th)
54.2% FG on mid-range jumpers (7th)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope:
39.9% 3PFG
42.3% on corner threes
48.3% on pull-up threes
55.6% effective field goal percentage
And just when you think you’ve guarded Jokic perfectly for 20 seconds, he burns you with his astounding improvisation. He has attempted the most shots with four or fewer seconds on the shot clock with 103, and of the 111 players to attempt over 30 shots in that range, Jokic is 4th in FG% with 58.3%.
Jokic’s assist numbers leapt last year from 7.9 to 9.8 and it’s largely due to the addition of Aaron Gordon who seems to be telepathic with Jokic. Gordon spends most of his time in the dunker spot waiting to be freed up by a defender who goes to double the Joker and then either shoots a wide-open layup or throws down the most vicious dunk of the night. All in all, Gordon’s shooting 67.8% from insane the paint this season which is close to the top of the league for power forwards.
When Jokic and Gordon are on the floor, they are a +6.4 and hold an offensive rating of 121.4—which would be the third best in the NBA. They also have an assist ratio of 23.0 which is the top 20th percentile in the league between two players. These seem like good numbers until you realize that there are three or four guys that Jokic has worked even better with this season.
Jokic and Company
Jokic and Jamal Murray: +7.5 (8th in NBA), 124.0 ORTG (20th in NBA)
Jokic and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: +7.7 (7th), 123.7 ORTG (23rd)
Jokic and Michael Porter Jr.: +6.6 (15th), 122.0 ORTG (46th).
Keep in mind that there are over 2,000 combinations of two players that have taken the floor this season, so anything inside the top 50 is elite let alone top-10.
In terms of Denver’s five-man lineups, their starting five has the highest plus-minus of any starting lineup with at least 15 games played together this season (+5.8). They all lead all lineups in points per game with 50.6 PPG.
On his own, Jokic is sixth in net rating in players with a least 300 minutes who play for Boston—they have nine guys in the top 50. The Nuggets with Jokic on the court have an offensive rating of 119.4 (3rd) and just 109.6 (26th) without him. And we already know about the advanced stats from Jokic’s MVP campaigns. He is the league leader in player efficiency rating, win shares, offensive win shares, win shares per 48, box plus-minus, offensive BPM, defensive BPM, value over replacement player, and player estimated impact.
There are so many facets of the game that Jokic dominates in and I just can’t cover them all, but here are a few things that I feel are the most critical towards Denver’s success.
Rebounding: Jokic averages 12.2 rebounds per game and is one of the best contested rebounders in the NBA. Specifically, he excels at tipping the ball to himself and corralling the rebound.
Transition: When Jokic rebounds and has a head of steam, the Nuggets are virtually impossible to stop. He will either run to the rim, find a teammate under the rim or a trailing three-point shooter.
Shooting: Jokic is only shooting 35.0% from three this year, but last year in the postseason, he shot a preposterous 46.1% from three which was 3rd among 61 players who had at least 30 attempts.
Pick and Roll: The Jokic and Murray pick and roll is one of the most effective play calls in the game. When Jokic receives the ball in the pick and roll, he scores 1.29 points per possession which is equivalent to shooting 43% from three—excellent efficiency.
Speaking of Murray, he’s having perhaps the best season of his career. His 20.9 PPG in 32.1 MPG are his highest points per minute in his career, and his 6.7 assists and stellar 41.9% three-point shooting are both career highs. In the advanced world, he has career highs in VORP, OBPM, DBPM, WS/48, and offensive rating. Signified by his lack of an all-star appearance, Murray’s best ability is beyond the numbers. Where he excels the most is what embodies Denver as a whole—he is deadly in the clutch. Murray’s 56.3/40.0/84.2 splits in clutch time are astoundingly good and one of the main contributors to why the Nuggets have the most wins and highest net rating in the clutch this season.
A few other things of note for the entire Nuggets team (abbreviated because I’m running out of space for the positive):
Denver’s defense has taken a step forward from last season. Last season, they were 15th in defensive rating and this season, they are 10th. Jokic has improved defensively, and Gordon and Caldwell-Pope have been able to stifle opponents on the ball. They are also 10th in transition defense.
Peyton Watson has emerged as a reliable member of an eight or nine-man rotation in the playoffs for head coach Mike Malone. His scoring has jumped from 3.3 to 6.7 PPG this season but is capable of taking over when the second unit is in. He provides stability for a bench that isn’t what it was last year.
Mike Malone is a top-five coach in the NBA and is the longest-tenured head coach in the Western Conference playoff picture at the moment. Come time for the playoffs, the cohesion that he and this Denver roster have built over the years will come up big.
Championship pedigree is real and naturally, as the 2023 champions, the Nuggets have it. No team will be more comfortable with the big moments than Denver giving them an upper hand overall, but mainly down the stretch against some of the younger teams of the Western Conference.
Denver came out of the all-star break winning 15 of 17 games and their two losses came in overtime to Phoenix and on a Kyrie Irving left-handed, buzzer-beating skyhook. Nobody’s in their league right now.
The Negative
The bulk of Denver’s negative is related to their bench. Last year, Bruce Brown was a staple in their offense and defense and came alive in the playoffs averaging 12, 4, and 2 on 51.1% shooting. Jeff Green was also an integral piece to their success and Denver lost both of them to Indiana and Houston this offseason. As a result, Denver’s bench has been much thinner this season.
Denver 2023 Bench vs 2024 Bench
2023 Bench
32.9 PPG (19th)
46.3% FG (12th)
34.1% 3PFG (20th)
72.0% FT (24th)
-2.5 plus minus (29th)
2024 Bench
29.2 PPG (26th)
43.9% FG (26th)
33.2% 3PFG (27th)
68.2% FT (29th)
-1.4 plus minus (22nd)
Besides plus-minus, Denver’s bench last season was better in every major category than this season. Christian Braun, who was a fringe rotation player entering the playoffs in 2023 will be expected to carry a heavy load this postseason. So will Reggie Jackson, who scored three points in the entire playoffs last year—he’s Denver’s top-scoring option off the bench.
What’s worrisome is that only one man can keep the Nuggets bench unit afloat when they’re on the floor. That’s Jokic, and the Nuggets are mediocre at best when he plays with the reserves.
Nuggets Lineups with Jokic and Without Murray, Gordon, and Porter Jr
R. Jackson - J. Holiday - N. Jokic - C. Braun - P. Watson: +0.7 (23.1 min)
R. Jackson - N. Jokic - J. Strawther - C. Braun - P. Watson: +0.5 (28.6 min)
R. Jackson - K. Caldwell-Pope - N. Jokic - C. Braun - P. Watson: -0.2 (78.2 min)
And when Jokic is off the floor, the Nuggets are unrecognizable from their championship selves.
Nuggets Lineups with Over 50 Minutes Without Jokic
J. Holiday - J. Murray - Z. Nnaji - C. Braun - P. Watson: -1.6 (57.4 min)
D. Jordan - R. Jackson - J. Murray - C. Braun - P. Watson: -0.9 (81.6 min)
R. Jackson - Z. Nnaji - J. Strawther - C. Braun - P. Watson: -1.7 (86.7 min)
R. Jackson - J. Murray - Z. Nnaji - C. Braun - P. Watson: -0.9 (62.4 min)
Not a single positive lineup. Even when Murray is on the floor, Denver is still treading water, waiting for their big man to check back in.
Finally, Denver will have to hope that Murray’s health is not a lingering issue. He’s missed the team’s last two games with an ankle injury, and with ten games to go, there’s no time for health issues—Murray needs to rest and recover quickly.
Good Matchups
Los Angeles Lakers: Until the Lakers beat Denver, LA will be a good matchup for them, and with the Lakers on track to end up in the 7th or 8th spot assuming they make the playoffs, LA is a probable matchup. Last year, Jokic and the Nuggets swept the Lakers out of the playoffs and are 3-0 against them this year. And Anthony Davis has been incredible in 2024 but the film shows that he struggles against dynamic, strong, versatile big men.
OKC Thunder: Though the Thunder have gone 3-1 against Denver this year, I think Jokic would have a field day in a potential matchup against OKC. His elite rebounding and post up ability would be on display and would be enough for Denver to punch their ticket in six or seven games.
Bad Matchups
Minnesota Timberwolves: I liked this matchup for Minnesota prior to last night, and after their 111-98 road win without Karl-Anthony Towns over the defending champs, I like it even more. The Timberwolves’ defense suffocates opponents and has limited Jokic to 3.5 APG in their last two matchups. History tells us that when Jokic isn’t dishing out the ball well, the Nuggets might be in trouble.
Phoenix Suns: The Suns have enough talent on their roster that they are always dangerous when at their peak, but they’ve also defeated Denver in back-to-back meetings. Aaron Gordon is a great defender but Kevin Durant has three inches and a high release on him. Last year, the Suns pushed the Nuggets to a tight six-game battle and have the potential to go the distance again.
My Prediction
If you couldn’t tell, Denver is my championship favorite. I believe Jokic is undeniable and incapable of losing four out of seven games right now. To me, the two teams that can defeat Denver in the playoffs are Minnesota and Boston, but I’d still take the reigning champs.
Bottom Line: For teams to have any chance against Denver, they need to make Jokic one-dimensional (i.e. limit his passing), and they need to win the minutes with Jokic off the floor. But if Denver is healthy, I don’t see a world in which they don’t repeat as back-to-back champs.