Divisional Round Deep Dive: Predictions, Explanations, and More
Something seems familiar about this divisional round. Perhaps it’s because the exact same four teams that made the AFC divisional round last year are back for a second crack this year. The Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Texans are just the second group of four teams in a conference to reach the divisional round in back-to-back years in NFL history. Luckily, we’ve got a new batch of matchups. The Chiefs and Texans, who faced off in one of the most unusual divisional round games five years ago, are back at it again on Saturday as the Chiefs continue their quest to the unprecedented threepeat. To cap off the weekend, the Bills and the Ravens are squaring off in the battle of the MVPs and quite frankly, the battle of threats to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
On the other side of the bracket, the landscape looks different from last year, but not entirely unfamiliar. The Eagles and Rams—two teams who have been to the Super Bowl in the last three seasons—will take the field in Philadelphia early on Sunday. And then of course there are the Lions, who haven’t reached the Super Bowl in their lengthy franchise history but are looking to punch their ticket to a second straight NFC championship game against a feisty Commanders team who were the only road team to win on Wild Card weekend.
We’re all geared up for an incredible weekend of football and what better way to set the stage than to preview the games? Ben Paradis from Beyond the Box Score and I went through every matchup and offered our in-depth analysis as well as our picks and score prediction. Enjoy the article and be sure to subscribe to Ben’s page!
(1) Kansas City Chiefs vs (4) Houston Texans
Webb: Chiefs 23-20
There’s a reason I picked the Texans last week against the Chargers; their defense was the best unit in the game. I hate to say it, Chiefs fans, but Houston’s D is the best unit in this game too. They have the unique ability to eliminate big plays while being aggressive with their ferocious pass rush. There’s no solution to containing Patrick Mahomes who is masterful at sifting through reads, escaping the pocket, and gaging the decision that nets the highest potential yards, but against a questionable offensive line and a poor receiver corps, Houston’s defense is about the best a team can do.
The game will come down to the Texans offense. It had struggled mightily at the end of the regular season, scoring just 5.8 points per second half in Stroud’s last four starts. And although the Texans scored 32 points against the Chargers last week, their offense was dormant for the first 28 minutes of the game and only generated 22 of the team’s 32 points thanks to costly turnovers by the Chargers.
On the bright side, I loved what I saw out of C.J. Stroud’s connection with Nico Collins from the end of the first half onward. Stroud was consistently releasing the ball in under two seconds and Collins was executing slant routes to perfection including a 13-yard touchdown to open the scoring for Houston. Stroud won’t have time to throw behind his wobbly offensive line against a feisty Chiefs D-line making it critical for the short to intermediate passing game to have success. Against the Chargers, Stroud was 10-for-13 and a touchdown on throws between five and 10 yards inside the numbers. That, along with an efficient day from Joe Mixon, will be the Texans’ formula for success on offense.
In the end, this is the Chiefs we’re talking about, meaning that you can throw all the numbers out the window in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. The Chiefs are 11-0 in one-score games this season and Patrick Mahomes leads the league in game-winning drives with seven. Every time the Chiefs need a big play, Mahomes makes it—his passer rating leaps by at least 20 points on third down from all other downs. This game is at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs haven’t lost in 387 days and are 10-2 in the playoffs since the start of Mahomes’ career.
I like the way that Houston matches up with Kansas City, but we all know darn well that the Chiefs aren’t losing to an offense as middling Texans’ at home in the playoffs.
Ben: Chiefs 27-24
Many people have this game as an afterthought in this weekend’s divisional slate. I get it, the Chiefs have been to the AFC championship game five years in a row, and with a 15-2 record, it doesn’t seem like that train is slowing down anytime soon. While I still think the Chiefs are going to win, this game will be closer than most people think.
Everyone bet against the Houston Texans last week, myself included - it was with fake money on Fliff, but that’s beside the point. With the whole world doubting them, C.J. Stroud and the Texans proved why they are a worthy playoff team. They forced Justin Herbert into throwing four interceptions - one more than he threw in the entire regular season. Their star-studded pash rush was phenomenal, with Will Anderson Jr. recording three quarterback hits, 1.5 sacks, and three tackles. This is especially worrisome for the Chiefs, as they have struggled immensely on the offensive line this season. For such a phenomenal team, their offensive line play has been their Achilles heel, with Patrick Mahomes taking the most sacks of his career. Andy Reid seems to be panicking, as he has rotated Joe Thuney and D.J Humphries in practice this week and has yet to commit to a starting left tackle for Saturday, according to reports coming out of Kansas City.
That said, the Chiefs will still bring their best. Mahomes is the best quarterback of this generation and always performs when the pressure is highest. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs are elite. They have the best defense of their dominant run over the past few years and should have continued success against the Texans. Houston’s offensive line is also banged up and unreliable as of late, which will make it difficult for the Texans to get anything going on the ground - something they have relied on in wins. Also, C.J. Stroud will be facing lots of pressure, and with a thin receiving corp, he may struggle to make plays outside the pocket.
This game will be a slug-fest, but I believe Patrick Mahomes and Chief’s championship experience will be able to get it done, especially with home-field advantage. Only one team has walked into Arrowhead and stolen a playoff game in the past few years, and it’s not the Texans. I’ve learned a valuable lesson over the last five seasons: never doubt Patrick Mahomes, he will make you look like a fool.
(1) Detroit Lions vs (6) Washington Commanders
Commanders: 41-38
Last weekend, the Commanders officially stuck it to Dan Snyder with a clutch Wild Card win sealed with a doink kick for the Divisional round by a nervous-looking Zane Gonzalez. And yet, this Cinderella run has another chapter in it because the Commanders are about to shock the world.
I have an idea of what you thought when you looked at my score prediction. “Webb, the Lions defense has been great lately. They only let up nine points against the Vikings, so there’s no way the Commanders score 41 on them.” Ever heard of luck? Variance? That’s all I’ve really got. At the end of the day, the Lions’ defense plays with great fight and Aaron Glenn is a great defensive play-caller, but they were very fortunate against Minnesota. They played a massive amount of man coverage, leaving Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison one-on-one against inexperienced corners. Whether it was good defense or bad reads or throws by Darnold, I don’t trust the success will continue for Detroit against one of the best quarterbacks in the league—Jayden Daniels.
Don’t be fooled because it’s his rookie year—this kid is ready for the moment. He’s led the NFL’s fifth-highest-scoring offense this season and presents a threat through the air and on the ground. He’s sixth in the NFL in completion percentage and 5th in PFF ranking and when he needs to use his legs, he is third in the entire NFL in yards per carry behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry (let that sink in).
What I love most about Daniels is his poise. Most rookies are rattled by the moment, but Daniels doesn’t break a sweat when the heat in the arena gets turned up. His fourth-quarter passer rating trails only Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield this season. He’s also third in touchdowns and fourth in completion percentage in the fourth.
We know what the Lions offense will bring to the table; they’ve been the best unit in the league all season long and are expecting David Montgomery to return this week. Goff, Gibbs, and the gang will move the ball up and down the field against a Commanders’ defense capable of being exploited but in the end, I expect Daniels to make one more play than Goff. Washington is 9-1 this season in games decided by fewer than seven points and incredibly, has won their last four games by means of a touchdown or field goal in the last ten seconds of the game, leading me to believe in them if the game comes down to the wire.
Don’t let Washington’s inexperience fool you. The NFL playoffs are one-and-done and the Commanders aren’t done just yet.
Ben: Lions 42-28
I’m as big of a Jayden Daniels fan as anybody, but I think his rookie season ends here - it was an amazing run.
The Lions are one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL, putting up monstrous numbers each week. In their last five games, they have scored 31, 40, 34, 48, and 34. Ridiculous. While their defense has been banged up, they have proven to be able to win in shootouts. The other kings of the shootout have been the Washington Commanders, but they might be in over their heads in this one. The Commanders' defense has been their biggest weakness, and they will be a speed bump for the Lions this weekend. The 30th-ranked run defense will have Jahmyr Gibbs - rightfully nicknamed “Sonic” - coming at them with a head of steam, and his running mate, David Montgomery, might be returning. Not to mention, the Commander's secondary has been incredibly inconsistent. Marshon Lattimore looks like a shell of himself, which is not encouraging as they will be facing Amon-Ra St. Brown and company. This would be fine if Washington could put up their typical production on offense, but I don’t think they’ll be able to.
Detroit is finally returning some critical pieces on defense, and they will be able to emulate their early season reputation of being a defensive juggernaut. With a week to rest, they’ve only gotten healthier. The Commanders' calling card has been converting 4th downs and never punting the ball, but the Lions are just too tough and experienced to let them convert consistently in those situations. Even when the Lions haven’t had their critical defenders, they have been the second-best 4th down defense in the NFL. The Lions will have the ball too much for this to be a classic Commanders shootout. The Lions will win at home.
(2) Philadelphia Eagles vs (4) Los Angeles Rams
Webb: Eagles 24-13
Every year, there are playoff teams that look like the ‘72 Dolphins in the wild card round and we get all excited about their chances against a higher seed in the divisional round before they fall back down to earth and lose. Last postseason, the Packers, Bucs, and Texans all demolished teams with better records than them in the Wild Card round and seemed to have the 49ers, Lions, and Ravens, respectively, on upset alert before all losing to those opponents. The Rams are that team this year. A 27-9 trouncing of the Vikings has people like my roommate asking, “Are the Rams the best team in the league?”
The answer is no. Remember that the Rams’ offense scored 12 points against the Niners, 19 against the Jets, and 13 against the Cardinals in their last three games of the regular season before benching their starters. And as much as I love Matthew Stafford, I’m sick of the “Playoff Stafford” narrative. The guy was 0-3 in the playoffs in Detroit without ever playing a game better than average. He lost in the Wild Card game last year, scoring only 23 points. His entire playoff legacy is based on one year in which he went on a four-year run along with the best roster in the league to win the Super Bowl. So, let’s not pretend that just because the lights are bright, Stafford is going to throw four touchdowns and do a backflip through the field goalposts to celebrate. Especially against an Eagles defense that leads the NFL in DVOA, points per game allowed, yards per game allowed, and generates 1.7 takeaways per game.
The Rams’ defense has received equally as much praise as their offense as of late. Let me remind you that they had the 26th-ranked defensive DVOA in the league and gave up the 12th most rushing yards per game. Why do they give up so many rushing yards on average? I don’t know, maybe because Saquon Barkley had 302 yards against them in week 12. The Rams can rush the quarterback but they can’t stop the run and that works perfectly for the Eagles—they want the ball in Barkley’s hands as much as possible and out of Jalen Hurts’ hands as much as possible. Well, everybody except A.J. Brown, who might finish another chapter of his book before the day is done.
In the end, too many things are working against the Rams in this game. The terrible Barkley matchup is obviously the most concerning factor, but it’s worth noting that Stafford hasn’t been himself for much of this season. The game is at Lincoln Financial Field which is home to some of the most vicious fans in the league and will be 33 degrees at game time. Philly will advance to their second conference championship in three years.
Ben: Rams 24-20
The Philadelphia Eagles might have the most talented roster in the NFL, but they have a couple of fatal flaws that I have long felt would be exposed in the playoffs. First, Jalen Hurts. Hurts is a very talented quarterback, but it feels like he peaked in his Super Bowl performance two years ago. He led the Eagles offense to an incredibly shaky performance last week. I understand he was coming off of an extended absence, but his season as a whole has left a lot to be desired. 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with 3,000 passing yards is not bad by any means, but elite? I don’t see it. Booger McFarland said that Jalen Hurts is like a hamburger with no toppings - I’m not really sure what that means, but I just wanted to add it.
If Hurts was confidently marching the Eagles down the field week after week with those stats, I wouldn’t be worried. But it feels like they are always stumbling their way to wins based on talent alone. It’s hard to keep that going in the playoffs.
Their next issue is team morale and Nick Sirianni. There is something very off about this team to me. Over the last few years, there has always been a new drama with the Eagles. Last year it was a historic collapse followed by chants to send Sirianni out of town, and then they started this year off quite poorly. Even when they went on their big winning streak, Jalen Hurts and A.J Brown were in a rift, and last week Brown stirred up some negative attention on social media. Not to mention, Nick Sirianni has had several cringe moments where he loses his cool. Like a typical Philly sports team, these guys are a bunch of divas.
The Rams are the anti-Eagles. Stafford plays his best ball in the playoffs and they have a no-nonsense operation. McVay is historically good in the playoffs, and it looks like they’re hitting their stride at the right time. Although they fell to the Eagles in Week 11, that was a very different team. They have gone 6-1 since that game and figured things out on defense. They are young and hungry, and I expect them to be all over Hurts in the passing game. The biggest question will be if they can slow down Barkley on the ground. If they can hold him under 120 yards, the Rams should be able to win. Not to mention, beating the same team twice in one season is always a tall task.
My prediction is based more on a feeling than any X’s and O’s. The Eagles are more like a reality TV show than a football team. Give me the Rams.
(2) Buffalo Bills vs (3) Baltimore Ravens
Webb: Ravens 34-24
Ravens vs Bills. Josh Allen vs Lamar Jackson. Romo and Nantz. A place in the AFC championship game is at stake. A chance for revenge for Buffalo and reaffirmation for Baltimore. This game is everything the NFL could have possibly asked for and more.
Aside from the elephant in the room which is the MVP matchup between future Hall of Famers Jackson and Allen, this game is a fascinating chess match between great coaches and great personnel. Ultimately, the matchup to watch is the Ravens run offense against the Bills run defense. Derrick Henry is on fire right now after putting up 186 yards and two touchdowns on the Steelers last week. He also had 199 rushing yards and two scores against Buffalo in week four—a game that Baltimore dominated 35-10. The Bills don’t have much size on the D-Line meaning they have to throw more bodies at Henry which opens up the read option and the passing game for Jackson who has only been the best QB in the league at throwing the football this year.
Allen will fire back with some huge plays of his own as he has done all season. However, although the Ravens have been susceptible to big plays in their secondary this season, they don’t let teams move the ball methodically down the field which, unfortunately for the Bills, has been their formula by means of James Cook, extra offensive linemen, and designed runs for Allen on third and short.
As a Ravens fan, I’d be lying if I said that Jackson’s subpar playoff history doesn’t scare me at all, but with the team he has around him, I’m not sure it’ll matter regardless of the location, conditions, or opponent.
Everyone thinks the Ravens are going to win this week which is normally worrisome, but in this case, it all makes sense. Baltimore has one of the best DVOAs in NFL history, has won five straight games, has more playmakers on either side of the ball and Super Bowl coach, they are a bad matchup for Buffalo, and they curb-stomped them earlier this season. All signs point to a Ravens W in snowy Buffalo.
Ben: Ravens 27-20
This will be the most hyped matchup of the weekend. Despite Buffalo’s superior record and seeding, the Ravens embarrassed the Bills 35-10 in Week 5. Although, a lot of time has passed since that game and both teams have transformed as the season has progressed. Unfortunately for Buffalo, Baltimore’s evolution might lead to results similar to their first battle.
In their September matchup, the Ravens ran all over Buffalo; 199 yards and a touchdown for Derrick Henry, and another rushing touchdown for Lamar Jackson. The dialogue around this upcoming game has noted how Buffalo was without their best linebackers in September but has failed to acknowledge that they still aren’t at full strength today. Yes, their star linebacker, Matt Milano, is back, but he isn’t 100%. He has a 33.3% missed tackle rate since returning, which won’t bode well against Lamar and Henry. The Bills' defensive scheme involves very little blitzing - the fifth-lowest rate in the league - and the Ravens have picked apart teams in coverage. Jackson has 25 passing touchdowns and one interception on non-blitzing plays. In their September matchup, Lamar went 12-15 with two touchdowns in the air - the Bills only blitzed thrice.
Although the Bills have also improved since Week 5, the Ravens' colossal improvement on the defensive end is a worrying sight for Buffalo. Allen had his worst game of the year against the Ravens, who were struggling immensely on defense at the time. Since dropping Kyle Hamilton back to safety and adjusting the defensive scheme slightly, the Ravens have been the toughest defense in football, allowing just 11.4 points per game since Week 14. Their biggest weakness will be covering the middle of the field, but I doubt it will be big enough of a flaw for the Bills to exploit in a meaningful way. Even if Josh Allen puts on his Superman cape, the Bills won’t win this game. The Ravens will continue their push for a Super Bowl.
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Good call with Washington!