Divisional Round Panel Picks
It seemed as though George was in cruise control just a week ago, but an unpredictable Wild Card weekend didn’t fare well for the odds-on favorite, as he finished in last place for the week with a 5-8 record and now sits just two wins clear of Ray, who continues to lurk in second place.
Ray’s strategy of picking a few more upsets than usual to make up ground on George is finally working, and since playoff games are worth double, Ray is just one incorrect George pick away from joining him on the panel throne.
“Hunting.” —Ray Pavlik (via the ATA panel group chat)
Here are the full standings with seven games left in the season.
This week, both one-seeds are favored by at least eight points and the Eagles are a six-point favorite at home making many of the picks appear obvious. But the panel is rarely that black and white. Considering the toss-up between Buffalo and Baltimore on Sunday Night and the NFL’s surprising twists and turns, we’re bound to watch something that we don’t expect to happen. Keep reading to find out what it might be.
Here are the picks.
Divisional Round Picks
Most alike picks: With locks taken into account, Josh and Ben had identical picks and George and Theo had identical picks.
Least alike picks: Rahul and I were the only panelists to have picks not replicated by anyone else.
Most upsets picked: Ray , Jackson, Rahul, and I all picked one upset this week. Of the four of us, I made the riskiest lock.
Fewest upsets picked: Everyone else picked zero upsets (none were required this week). Of those four, George and Theo made the safest locks.
Most picks with majority: The panelists who picked no upsets were in the majority the most.
Most picks against majority: Ditto.
What Stands Out?
In the playoffs, I like to have my first “What Stands Out?” point be about the game of the week which is clearly the Ravens vs Bills. As I expected based on the panel’s unwavering belief in Baltimore all season, the Ravens received seven of the eight votes as well as three locks. Even Rahul, who was the lone Bills picker, admitted that part of his decision was that he expected everybody else to pick the Ravens. He was right.
There’s a slight sense of uncertainty around the Eagles when you look at the panel’s picks. Both Ray and Jackson like the Rams this week and the Eagles received no locks while the other three favorites were all locked at least twice. Out of every remaining team who played last week, the Eagles scored the fewest points and Jalen Hurts was underwhelming, perhaps presenting as factors for the lack of sincere belief in them this week.
Believe it or not, Ray has a chance to overtake George this week. The odds are slim, but there is a 5.8% that the Chiefs, Commanders, and Rams all win this week which would bump Ray into first place. To tie George, he just needs the Rams pick to go his way which has a 34.6% chance of hitting according to ESPN. If it doesn’t and George goes into the conference championship round with a four-game lead, he could clinch the season victory by picking identically to Ray—the Super Bowl is only worth three points.
I’m not sure if I’ve ever made this clear, but all panelists (including myself) are not allowed to see the other panelists’ picks before submitting them.
Playoff Picture
Let’s pretend our majority pick in each matchup won this weekend. Here are the projected playoff matchups in the conference championship games.
AFC
(1) Kansas City Chiefs vs (3) Baltimore Ravens | These teams played in the AFC championship game last season, except the seeds were reversed. The Chiefs won that game 17-10 as I sulked from the stands.
NFC
(1) Detroit Lions vs (2) Philadelphia Eagles | Detroit and Philadelphia have both appeared in the NFC championship game in the last two years. Weirdly enough, these teams have not played since week one in 2022 when Philly won 38-35.