Divisional Round Preview (Saturday Edition)
Have you ever read an article or watched a video about photos taken before disaster? Things like a picture of someone posing halfway up a mountain before an avalanche, or a man smiling at the camera with a ring in his hand before his proposal gets rejected would qualify as photos taken before disaster. In the context of sports, a picture of the 76ers celebrating their game tying shot against Toronto in game 7, or Tee Higgins catching the ball before being tackled by Damar Hamlin.
There’s my photo before disaster. Nobody died, and there was no failed proposal, but as you can see on the big screen, there are 33:00 minutes until game time between the Ravens and Titans—a game that the Titans led from wire to wire en route to knocking off the Ravens in year where we won every major award, broke various rushing records, and went 14-2 including a 12-game winning streak to finish the season. Now, I wish I had a better picture of M&T Bank Stadium from that night, but I was so blindsided by the Derrick Henry’s dominant 195-yard performance that I must have forgotten that my phone was in my pocket.
2019 was the last time the Ravens had the one-seed and were headed into the divisional round against a dangerous AFC South team. They’ve got another one trotting into down. Houston has its chest buffed out, and is coming into the Charm City with a lot of swag and a young roster to show for it. And Ravens vs Texans is just the first of two exciting games on Saturday. Let’s examine each game further.
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans
The Ravens are one of the best teams we’ve seen in years. Very few teams have an MVP at quarterback, a defense as elite as Baltimore’s, and their excellent special teams. They are either the only or one of two teams with zero holes in their roster, but no team is perfect, so let’s look at how the Texans can win today.
It starts with C.J. Stroud—the Texans’ rookie sensation who fears no defense or stage. Stroud decimated the Browns secondary in the 45-14 Wild Card win and continues to dominate with limited options. Tank Dell went down in week 12, so Stroud has been rolling with Nico Collins, John Metchie II, and Brevin Jordan at wide receiver, and Dalton Shcultz at tight end. But despite the lack of household names on their offense, those guys have stepped up to the plate. Collins is in the midst of his first 1,000+ yard season, Metchie had his best career game last week, and Jordan has been one of the better deep threats when targeted this season. Houston will need some help from their running game, though, which has struggled down the stretch. Devin Singletary has only surpassed 100 yards once all year, and Dameon Pierce has been one of the least efficient runningbacks all year, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry.
It's probably smart to stay away from the ground against the Ravens anyway, who are one of the best run defenses in the league, led by their Pro-Bowl duo of Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen. The weather will also favor Baltimore’s defense scheme—they league to hit hard, and the turf with be cold and hard in sub 10° weather. Queen and Smith have an excellent defensive line in front of them, too. They recorded 60 sacks all season which led the NFL. Justin Madubuike played a big role, recording a career high 12.5 sacks.
One concern for Baltimore this season has been their 4th quarter defense. They’ve allowed just 16.5 PPG all year, but 7.1 in the 4th quarter which is one of the worst in the league. The Texans, meanwhile, have been very clutch, averaging 6.8 points per 4th quarter. If Houston is within a possession going into the 4th, they stand a chance. Secondly, Baltimore will be without Marlon Humphrey this weekend, but have plenty of backup with Brandon Stephens and Arthur Maulet having career seasons.
Let’s not like the Ravens offense has been clutch either, though. In fact, they’ve been far more than clutch—they’ve been magnificent, and it all starts with MVP Lamar Jackson. About 7 or 8 times a game, Jackson turns a seemingly dead play into a first down or more with his absurd scrambling ability, football IQ, and improvisation skills. Jackson leads Ravens rushers with 821 yards this season as well as all quarterbacks. In his first season under Todd Monken as OC, we’ve also seen Jackson succeed within a system. Monken’s passing scheme has allowed Jackson to sit back and feed new weapons, Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., and Nelson Agholor, with ease. Flowers has been the best rookie WR in Ravens history with 858 yards and 5 touchdowns, and the two veterans have been steady, providing big plays all season long.
Though they’ll be without Mark Andrews again this week, but Isaiah Likely has been more than serviceable, playing the best football of his career. And Houston’s secondary isn’t the sharpest either—they’re 25th in passing yards allowed this season. The one thing that they do do well is force turnovers. They’ve got 14 picks this season, and have turned up the heat as of late including two pick-sixes of Joe Flacco in the Wild Card round. Finally, Houston will need to hunker down against the Ravens run game. They’ve got three capable rushers in Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill, and Edwards has been one of the best goal line backs all year.
My prediction: this game will be over fast if the Texans turn the ball over. Baltimore capitalizes on turnovers like no other team, and the Texans formula this year has been mistake-free football.
Here are the picks.
Panel Picks
Same rules as last week. Games count for double, a lock gives an extra point, guessing one team’s score correctly gives you one point, and guessing the game score correctly is worth two points.
Ray: Ravens beat Texans 35-31
Houston’s glory run comes to end here unless first ballot playoff choker Lamar Jackson does what he normally does.
Josh: Texans beat Ravens 34-31 (lock)
Texans narrowly edge out Ravens on second half offense (ravens clamp on first half), Lamar goes off but it’s not enough, Texans win slow battle to end
George: Ravens beat Texans 35-17 (lock)
The Ravens defense comes to play today, and C.J. Stroud’s magical rookie campaign comes to a thundering halt in a game in which he throws an interception and can’t connect on big plays.
Webb: Ravens beat Texans 38-7 (lock)
We have yet to see the Ravens play against a great team at home. However, we have seen them trounce plenty of solid to good teams which is exactly what the Texans are. The Texans offense defense will get off to a turnover-riddled start, and Lamar and the offense will operate efficiently in short field positions. This game will be over halfway through the fourth quarter.
Jackson: Ravens beat Texans 35-14
Ravens with a comfortable victory over the Texans. Lamar completes under 15 passes but rushes for 100+ yards.
Rahul: Texans beat Ravens 27-20
I really want to ride with Stroud here, and as a betting man, I like Texans +9.5, given they are 7-2 ATS and just creamed the Cleveland Browns defense: a defense that’s statistically better than the Ravens against both rushing and passing. Screw it, got to piss off Webb and George here and climb up the ATA ladder. I’ll take the Texans to win in the upset of the week. Humphrey and Andrews will still be out, Stingley will keep Flowers out of the game, Nico Collins will go for 2 TD’s and 150 yards, and the media once again writes off the Ravens as a regular season team.
Theo: Ravens beat Texans 27-17
This Baltimore defense will break Stroud. He has excelled thus far but will be stuffed by the Ravens’ third down and red zone expertise. Despite Mark Andrews still recovering from injury, Lamar will earn only his second playoff win and setup the Ravens well with this decisive victory over the Texans.
Game Details
Day and time: Saturday, 4:30 ET
Where to watch: ESPN, ABC (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman)
Spread: Baltimore (-9.5)
Weather: 23°, feels like 3°, 12 MPH winds
No matter the result in the KC vs Buffalo game, the Ravens will be at home with a win and the Texans will be on the road with a win.
San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers
The last time these teams squared off in the playoffs, Green Bay was the one-seed and the 49ers were the Wild Card team coming off an upset of the Cowboys. In 2023, the script has flipped, and Green Bay, who was upset 13-10 by San Francisco that year, will hope that it says that way. San Francisco, meanwhile, has been on a quest for the Lombardi under Kyle Shanahan for years and years, but hasn’t reached the finish line. This year is understood to be their best chance yet.
The reason for this is that they’ve got more star power than any team. Purdy. Samuel. Aiyuk. Kittle. Williams. McKivitz. Juszczyk. Warner. Greenlaw. Ward. Bosa. Armstead. I could go on and on about the ridiculous roster that John Lynch has pieced together.
Their offensive pieces created a nice looking puzzle this year, as Brock Purdy was top 5 in almost all QB metrics, and number one in YPA—the 49ers had more big plays than anyone. Life’s been easy for Purdy as long as Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle have all been fantastic in the yards after the catch department, leading to multiple chunk plays per game. But the catalyst for San Fran’s offense is none other than the great Christian McCaffrey who leads all runningbacks in rushing yards by almost 300, and receiving yards. Among all rushers with at least 100 attempts, McCaffrey trails only Lamar Jackson in YPC with 5.4. One weakness for the 49ers on offense is running the right. Going left with Trent Williams at left tackle is almost a smart bet, but the right side of the line has cycled guys in and out with injury plaguing them.
For this to be relevant, Joe Barry’s inconsistent defense will need to be at the top of their game. Preston Smith, De’Vondre Campbell, and Rashan Gary have all been fantastic this season. Gary has a career high nine sacks, and Lukas Van Ness—a promising rookie—has logged four this year. However, Green Bay’s defense has made some bad teams look good and it starts with their pass defense. They’ve forced the second fewest interceptions of any team, and have been in the bottom half of the league for points allowed and passing yards allowed in the second half to the season. Part of the reason for this is Jaire Alexander’s spotty attendance—he’s questionable this week and can play a big role for he Packers at his best.
On the other side of the ball for Green Bay, Jordan Love and his army of young wide receivers will have a tough task ahead of them with an experienced 49ers defense. However, the 49ers D hasn’t been invincible this season, and with Love throwing 21 touchdowns and one interception in his last nine games, Green Bay stands a chance. What’s gotten the mojo going for the Pack has been Aaron Jones who has ben fantastic since returning from injury. If anyone in the NFC can solve the elite linebacker duo of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, it’s him. In the last four weeks, the Niners have allowed 33 to Baltimore, 29 to Arizona, and 21 to the Rams backups, so it’s not like they’re unstoppable back there. If Love can complete a few big plays to Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, the Packers stand a chance.
Let’s get to the picks.
Panel Picks
Ray: 49ers beat Packers 31-17
I did call the Packers the biggest frauds in the playoffs last week, and I still don’t think they’re very good. It will result in a comfortable win for the 49ers.
Josh: 49ers beat Packers 41-20
Niners dominate the entire time, although Brock looks fairly mediocre, Love throws two picks and the game is over by the midpoint of the third quarter.
George: 49ers beat Packers 28-17
The Packers aren’t ready for the big stage with the young roster they have. San Francisco starts and finishes strong, leaving little time for Jordan Love and the offense to get going in the biggest game of his career.
Webb: Packers beat 49ers 30-27
The Packers win the coin toss and score on the first drive, immediately putting the pressure on Brock Purdy. It ends up being a back and forth game, but Jordan Love has the last laugh, as he and Jayden Reed repeatedly connect to set up a 51-yard game-winning Anders Carlson field goal.
Jackson: 49ers beat Packers 42-24
49ers with a convincing win over the packers. Purdy throws for over 300.
Rahul: 49ers beat Packers 31-23
Man I hate the Niners I really do. But I would also hate to watch from front court Alyssa Thomas try to throw down a dunk jam. Give me the Niners in this matchup. CMC will score a TD, so will Deebo, so will Aiyuk. Love will rally the Packers back with some help from my knight in shining armor Aaron Jones (who I badly need to hit 70 rushing yards for my parlay) and Jayden Reed. However, Brock Purdy will hand the ball off to CMC 20+ times in the game, enough to run the clock down and make it to the conference championship.
Theo: 49ers beat Packers 30-20
This game could very well go either way after last week’s showing by Jordan Love. With 21 TD/1 INT in his last nine games, Love is surely going to be tricky for the 49ers redzone defense. However, coming fresh off the bye, Purdy will show his true colors and rack up astonishing stats in his second playoff run.
Game Details
Day and time: Saturday, 8:15 ET
Where to watch: FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen)
Spread: San Francisco (-9.5)
Weather: 55°, 45% chance of rain
No matter the result in the Detroit vs Tampa Bay game, the 49ers will be at home with a win and the Packers will be on the road with a win.
My favorite sports podcast, Around the NFL, likes to say that Wild Card Weekend eliminates the “rubble”—the teams like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia that don’t belong in the final 8. We’re finally in the divisional round, where every team is playing their best football of the season, and we should have a terrific weekend ahead.