I was Wrong About Saquon Barkley
Nobody was quite sure what to make of the Eagles when Saquon Barkley signed a 3-year/$37.75M deal with Philadelphia.
Some were convinced that Barkley was the missing piece to an Eagles team that at one point boasted a 10-1 record just one year removed from playing in the Super Bowl. Others were skeptical of the impact a running back could have, especially on a poorly coached team that looked nowhere near contention when they were picked apart by the Bucs in the Wild Card game.
Admittedly, I was in the second boat. I did not believe in any part of the Eagles aside from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. I thought Jalen Hurts’ superstar mask would be taken off, revealing an average quarterback and an overrated runner of the football. I was even lower on the Philly’s defense. In the final seven weeks of the season, they looked like the worst defense in football, allowing 30.6 PPG which was the second worst in that span. Aside from rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean who were selected 22nd and 40th, respectively, there was no evidence that Philly’s defense would improve. Specifically, I had very little hope that Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson would be able to patch up on the enormous leaks they inflicted in their secondary.
Jason Kelce’s retirement left some uncertainty on an offensive line that had thrived upon continuity for years. A chronically hurt Lane Johnson and Mekhi Becton on the right side of the line just didn’t get the job done from my view.
And then, of course, there was the coach. Nick Sirianni was not a good coach at the time of the Barkley signing. His main calling card is his passion and intensity for the game such as when he cried during the National Anthem or cursed out his own fanbase. When it came down to the X’s and O’s, Sirianni appeared to be clueless about all strategy. His clock management was poor, and most of all, I had no faith that his reportedly unhealthy relationship with Jalen Hurts would be restored. I may not understand a play sheet but I understand how difficult it is to succeed with a coach that you don’t get along with.
By the end of the 2023, the Eagles were 10th in offensive DVOA and 29th in DVOA and had a point differential of just five and while watching the Bucs trounce them 33-16 in week four for the second time in the calendar year, I was ready to write them off for good—a satisfying conclusion given that I picked them to miss the playoffs this year.
I stand by the fact that these were all fair and logical opinions to have prior to the 2024 season. What I overlooked is that Saquon Barkley is an abnormal talent with the rare ability to change the script of a team all by himself.
I even had my doubts about Barkley heading into the season.
Nobody can forget about his sensational rookie year in which he compiled over 2,000 total scrimmage yards. However, his production dipped in every category in year two and in year three, he only had 25 touches before tearing his ACL. Year four is when he looked the second coming of Ezekiel Elliott. He stayed healthy for 13 games, but only managed 593 rushing yards on 3.7 yards per attempt. He broke out in 2022—a year of success that the Giants will regret for a long time—, totaling 1,312 rushing yards, 4.4 YPA, and 10 touchdowns. But he retreated back to his mediocre self in year six, managing just 962 yards rushing (16th in the NFL) on 3.9 YPA (below average).
Barkley’s dip in production last year coincided with a financial crisis for running backs. No team was willing to use a sizable chunk of their salary cap for a position that was far more replaceable than any other position in the league (aside from special teams).
I agreed with the GMs on this one. What difference would Barkley make by replacing De’Andre Swift, who had a better statistical season than him last year?
But positions in the NFL are cyclical and Barkley is one-of-one.
He has completely turned around this Eagles team. They have now won eight straight games, scoring 29.5 PPG while doing so. Against my Ravens yesterday, he took over the game by himself. Up 14-12 on a crucial fourth-quarter drive, Barkley accounted for 51 of the Eagles’ 71 yards including a game-breaking 25-yard sprint to the endzone which put the Eagles up by nine. All things considered, Barkley’s 107 rushing yards on 4.7 per carry are pedestrian for what he’s done all season. 107 yards was his second-lowest output in his last seven games—he’s averaging an eye-popping 145.3 YPG on 6.6 YPC in that span. For the season, he’s already at 1,499 yards rushing and leads all running backs with 6.1 YPA (tied with Lamar Jackson for most among all players). As of now, he’s on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record by 19 yards.
Barkley’s resurgence has revived the Eagles but it is also reviving the running back position. His historic season with help of a big year from Derrick Henry will help put running backs back on the market as desired assets. It’s important that Barkley and Henry have been the two top rushers this season because it shows that the best are still the best and that there are levels of running backs just like every other position. These guys are not replaceable by any means.
Widening the scope back out to the team’s success, Saquon isn’t the only reason for Eagles’ turnaround despite how transformative he has been. Philly’s defense is ranked second in yards per play allowed, and has held seven of their last eight opponents to 20 points or fewer. Their young core of Jalen Carter, Mitchell, DeJean, and Nolan Smith is generational, and it’s been coupled with unexpectedly good seasons from Brandon Graham, who is now out for the season, Slay, and Zack Baun.
The Eagles’ line has held up strongly and has given Jalen Hurts time to throw which has limited his turnovers significantly. But it all comes back to Barkley. A car can have a surplus of top-of-the-line parts with flashy paint and a luxurious brand to it’s name, but it can’t move without it’s engine.
The Eagles were stuck in neutral with a coach that didn’t know how to shift the gears of the car. Saquon Barkley has them driving at 100 miles per hour while Sirianni and the rest of the Eagles get to sit back and marvel over the generational talent that many believed wouldn’t make a difference.