Let's Not Act Like We Haven't Seen This Before
I’ll start out this article by saying the following three things.
Luka Doncic is a top 5 player in the world (not necessarily #5 —he could be #1—that’s for you to decide). Right now, he’s in a conversation with Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry (if you’re curious, I think Jayson Tatum, needs another MVP-caliber season to prove himself as top 5.
There’s no player I’d rather start a franchise with.
He is on a Hall of Fame trajectory and could be in the conversation for the best international player ever with Hakeem Olajuwon and Dirk Nowitzki when his career is over.
Luka’s greatness is undeniable. His public praise is completely justified. Check out this video he made in collaboration with Dude Perfect last month. The Mavericks are reaping the benefits of his success, winning their last 6 games, and leaping to 4th in the Western Conference. Here are some of his statistical feats from earlier this season.
Oct. 27 — 41 PTS, 11 REB, 14 AST in OT win vs Brooklyn.
Nov. 12 — 42 PTS, 10 REB, 13 AST, 60% FG in win vs Portland.
Nov. 29 — 41 PTS, 12, REB, 12 AST in win vs Golden State.
Dec. 12 — 38 PTS, 11 REB, 8 AST in win vs Oklahoma City.
But it’s what he’s done in the last week and a half that has been the most eye-popping.
Dec. 23 — 50 PTS, 8 REB, 10 AST in win vs Houston.
Dec. 25 — 32 PTS, 9 REB, 9 AST in win vs the Lakers.
Dec. 27 — 60 PTS, 21 REB, 10 AST, and a game tying shot in win vs New York.
Dec. 29 — 35 PTS, 12 REB, 13 AST in win vs Houston (they can’t catch a break).
Dec. 31 — 51 PTS, 6 REB, 9 AST, 0 TO in win vs San Antonio.
Averages in those 5 games: 45.6 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 10.2 APG, 2.4 STL, 60% FG, 50% 3P.
Numbers over such a span are so rare that the basketball world has talked about them endlessly from December 23rd until now. But we’re acting as though numbers like his have never been seen before, which is unfair to one of the greatest statistical runs of all time.
In the 2018-2019 season, James Harden exploded. In 78 games, he went for 36.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 7.5 APG. Doncic’s recent tear is from a sample of just 5 games, and Harden’s numbers aren’t too far away from his. Harden’s player efficiency rating was practically identical to Doncic’s this season, as were his win shares per 48 minutes. In fact, despite Doncic’s heroics this season, Harden’s on-court plus-minus (+5.5) was higher than that of Doncic (+5.1).
Let’s also take into account the supporting casts. Doncic is putting up his numbers with virtually no help. If you don’t think so, then how could the Mavericks have been 15-16 on December 20th? Christian Wood is scoring 17 PPG but has shown a fairly low ceiling given his efficiency. His real plus-minus is its lowest in 4 seasons—seasons in which he was playing with the horrid Rockets. Spencer Dinwiddie is averaging 16 PPG but has only topped 30 points once all season. Tim Hardaway Jr. is the only other 10+ point scorer on the team and has been, perhaps, the most inconsistent scorer in the league. He’s lived behind the 3-point arc and is shooting just 35% from that range. The point: Doncic is the only option that the Mavericks have, so his usage is through the roof.
In 2018-2019, Harden was teammates with future Hall of Famer Chris Paul whose splits that year were 16, 5, and 9. They also had sharpshooter Eric Gordon alongside him, who was good for 16 per night. A more efficient Dinwiddie, one may say. To round out the lineup, Clint Capela averaged 16, 13, and 2 blocks per game, and PJ Tucker brought defensive toughness, 8 PPG, and 38% from distance. It’s safe to say that while Harden was the main option on that Houston team, it was not a one-man show. Yet, he still put up some of the most mind-boggling numbers in NBA history.
Here are some of Harden’s statistical feats from that historic season.
Nov. 26, 2018 — 54 PTS, 8 REB, 13 AST vs Washington.
Dec. 13, 2018 — 50 PTS, 10 REB, 11 AST vs Lakers.
Dec. 31, 2018 — 43 PTS, 10 REB, 13 AST vs Memphis.
Jan. 3, 2019 — 44 PTS, 10 REB, 15 AST vs Golden State.
Jan. 11, 2019 — 43 PTS, 10 REB, 13 AST vs Cleveland.
Jan. 14, 2019 — 57 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST vs Memphis.
Jan. 16, 2019 — 58 PTS, 10 REB, 6 AST vs Brooklyn.
Jan. 23, 2019 — 61 PTS, 15 REB, 4 AST vs New York.
Feb. 28, 2019 — 58 PTS, 7 REB, 10 AST vs Miami.
Mar. 20, 2019 — 57 PTS, 7 REB, 8 AST vs Memphis.
Mar. 22, 2019 — 61 PTS, 7 REB, 1 AST vs San Antonio.
Mar. 30, 2019 — 50 PTS, 11 REB, 10 AST vs Sacramento.
In these 12 games, Harden’s splits were 53.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG, and 8.8 APG. In a 15-game stretch in the middle of the season, he averaged 44.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 7.9 APG. Almost the exact same numbers as Doncic’s recent stretch, in three times the games. And let’s not forget when he dropped 60, 10, 11 (the only 60-point triple-double until 10 days ago) and a game-winning 4-point play in the previous season en route to the Rockets getting the one-seed—a season in which Harden’s WS/48 was higher than Doncic’s through 34 games.
And then, of course, there’s winning. In his famed 2018-2019 season, Harden led his Rockets to 53 wins and the 4th seed, before getting eliminated in 6 games in the second round against the future champion, Golden State Warriors. We don’t know how the Mavericks’ success will convert in the postseason this year, but currently, they are on pace for just 46 wins.
So, before we crown Doncic as the greatest statistical player since Wilt Chamberlain, let’s not forget about the season in which James Harden took over the league; a season, perhaps, incomparable to any in NBA history.