Milwaukee Bucks Analysis: Never Count Out The Freak
The Bucks are 42-23 but with the way the media talks about them, you’d think they are 23-42. All year, Milwaukee just hasn’t quite looked right from firing Adrian Griffin at 30-13 to Damian Lillard’s occasional lackluster play to Giannis Antetokounmpo calling out the entire organization. But any time you have a top-3 player in the league and an NBA champion alongside one of the best snipers in league history, you’ve got a chance, and that’s exactly what the Bucks have. Even still, Milwaukee has been the most difficult team in the NBA to figure out this season, but I’ve got some ideas.
Milwaukee Bucks (42-24, 9.5 GB)
The Positive
The positive is in the personnel for the Bucks, who, for the seventh season in a row, are getting MVP-level play out of Antetokounmpo. He’s averaging 30.8 PPG, 11.2 RPG, and 6.5 APG while shooting a career-high 61.5% from the field—a whole 6.2% higher than the last two seasons. On the offensive end, Giannis is most definitely having his best season since winning his second MVP award in 2020. His sidekick, Damian Lillard, has been productive too, despite constantly receiving the Anthony Davis treatment from the media. Lillard’s averages are 24.7, 4.4, and 6.8 on 42.6% and 35.5% shooting. Sure, those marks are worse than last season, but anytime you average 32.2 on a team full of scrubs, it will be hard to match.
The reality is that despite the well-roundedness of previous Bucks teams, Antetokounmpo has never had a second option of the caliber of Lillard which is particularly important for him, because he often needs a guard to handle the ball in late-game situations which Lillard is one of the best guys in the league for. If all else fails, Milwaukee has the best playoff performer throughout the last five seasons and a perennial all-star at their disposal.
Antetokounmpo and Lillard don’t just work by themselves though—their pick and roll has been effective. Though they don’t run it very often, Antetokounmpo is in the top third of players for points per possession as the roll man with 1.17. Lillard is 40th among 292 qualified players in points per possession on all pick and rolls—not just one with Giannis. I say that because the majority of Lillard's production in that set has come from the high pick and roll with Brook Lopez. Anytime you have a deep threat like Lillard, the high pick and roll is a go-to, but Milwaukee has taken that to a whole new stratosphere. At one point in very early March, Lillard and Lopez had run 124 high pick and rolls and the second and third-place duo combined for just 100. Hey, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Anyone who knows anything about Milwaukee knows that the problem in the short-lived Adrian Griffin era was the Bucks’ lackluster defense. The Doc Rivers hire seemed incredibly questionable at the time, but he has helped fix Milwaukee’s shaky defense—something that Adrian Griffin couldn’t do. They’re much more switchable on defense, and the dribble penetration has looked good against guards. Overall, there seems to be more buy-in from the players which is always evident when you see quicker doubling, rotating, and switching. Rivers got off to a rocky 1-5 start with the Bucks including losses to Portland and Utah, but in their last 15 contests, they are 5th in defensive rating, 8th in opponent PPG, and 7th in opponent FG%.
As we know, defense wins championships and nothing is more vital to a team in the playoffs than a big stop down the stretch. But when the chips are on the line, the Bucks already have things figured out. They’re 21-11 in clutch time this season—one win short of the league-leading Nuggets and Bulls (???) and just barely behind the Nuggets, Lakers, and Mavericks in terms of win percentage. In clutch situations, they are 3rd in offensive rating and 5th in defensive rating. That has led to being 2nd place in net rating and 3rd in PIE (Player Impact Estimated). Especially with Boston’s mysteriousness down the stretch of games, Milwaukee should feel good about themselves if it's close in the final five minutes. Plus, Milwaukee is the only team in the East along with the Celtics with a winning record against teams above .500 (21-15).
Finally, in my last analysis, I highlighted how Cleveland’s starting lineup can’t seem to mesh together well enough. Well, no starting lineup in the Eastern Conference playoff picture has played together more than Milwaukee’s. Lillard, Malik Beasley, Khris Middleton, Antetokounmpo, and Brook Lopez have played 35 games together this season which, in this age of basketball, is not shabby at all. Combine that with the reliable minutes that Bobby Portis and Patrick Beverley are giving the Bucks plus the Danilo Gallinari signing which has worked out better than expected, and things are looking up for Milwaukee.
The Negative
The Bucks are flat-out mysterious. On any given night, they can knock out the Celtics by 40 and beat the Clippers without Giannis, and on another night, they get trounced by the Kings or Warriors or lose to the Trail Blazers. That’s why no one believes in Milwaukee—they’ve shown how low their floor is and how frequently they go there.
As I mentioned at the top of the article, something has been wrong in the locker room too. You could call it their “vibe” or maybe it’s just chemistry, but there hasn’t been a whole lot of good news surrounding the Bucks. Lillard has made it clear that he is lonely in Milwaukee without his family, Antetokounmpo has been fiery all season, notably when he sprinted to the Pacers’ locker room after the game ball like a wild animal to secure the game ball. Khris Middleton’s ankle injuries are piling up, and then, of course, the coaching staff has been a carousel.
We can talk about Doc Rivers and how he’s improved the Bucks’ defense, but everyone knows that come time to win the big playoff games, Rivers has proven to be a liability. Take a look at some of the leads he’s blown as a head coach in the playoffs.
3-1 Leads
2003 Magic lead Pistons 3-1 in First Round
2015 Clippers lead Rockets 3-1 in Conference Semis
2020 Clippers lead Nuggets 3-1 in Conference Semis
3-2 Leads
2009 Celtics lead Magic 3-2 in Conference Semis
2010 Celtics lead Lakers 3-2 in NBA Finals
2012 Celtics lead Heat 3-2 in ECF
2023 76ers lead Celtics 3-2 in Conference Semis
Incredibly, Rivers-led teams are 16-33 when they have three wins in a playoff series.
I don’t want to tear down Doc too much because the Bucks have shown great flashes since he joined the team, but it’s worth noting that their offensive rating with him at the helm is 114.7 which would rank 18th in the league. It’s not too worrisome until you realize that under Adrian Griffin, the Bucks’ offensive rating was 122.0 which would be first in the NBA. Couple that with the fact that team defensive numbers still only average out to the middle of the pack, and the Bucks don’t look like a contender on paper.
Now, part of the reason for their dip in offense is that Khris Middleton went down with a left ankle sprain just four games into the Rivers era. In years past, Middleton has been a reliable second option, averaging 20+ PPG for three straight years. In the 2021 Finals, Middleton averaged 24/6/5 and was an intricate part of their championship run. This season, when on the court, he’s only averaging 14.8 points which isn’t quite going to get it done. For the Bucks to have a chance against the Celtics and Nuggets, Middleton will have to elevate to playoff form, especially without any other consistent perimeter scorers outside of Lillard.
This brings me to their next weakness which is their bench scoring. They’re ranked 20th in bench scoring with 32.8 bench points per game—in the Giannis era, they’ve never scored fewer. They can count on Bobby Portis 100% of the time, but Beverley is an on-and-off scorer and Pat Connaughton, Jae Crowder, and Gallinari haven’t earned the right to be trusted this season. The bench is the other reason why the Bucks need Middleton—Crowder gets moved to the starting lineup where he is often a defensive liability and AJ Green, who most fans have never heard of, becomes the 9th man in the rotation. Indiana has the most bench scoring in the league, and Miami and Orlando are all close to the top. Those are three of the most likely first-round matchups for the Bucks, so they’ll need to stay the course in the minutes with Giannis and Lillard are off the floor.
Finally, there are a few stats that I believe Milwaukee fans will find a bit alarming.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has the worst points per jump shot of any player in the league at 0.79.
They are 29th in transition points and 29th in opponent turnover percentage.
They have the 4rd hardest remaining strength of schedule with two games against the Celtics and Thunder each.
Good Matchups
Orlando Magic: They are one of two teams that Milwaukee should root to be slotted against in the first round. At the end of the day, Orlando is a good team but they don’t have enough to put up with the star power of a top-3 player like Antetokounmpo. I’d take the Bucks to win 4-1 in this series.
Philadelphia 76ers: Most would expect the two stars, Giannis and Embiid, to cancel each other out, though I’d give the nod to Giannis in the playoffs. After that, Milwaukee’s supporting cast is more reliable and talented than Philly’s by a considerable margin. Don’t believe me? The 76ers are 10-21 without their MVP this year. For what it’s worth, Milwaukee is 2-1 without the Greek Freak.
Bad Matchups
Indiana Pacers: Indiana is 4-1 against Milwaukee this season, and Pascal Siakam wasn’t a Pacer for any of those games. He’d likely take the responsibility of guarding Giannis. Haliburton has torched the Bucks scoring and playmaking and without guards who are capable of staying in front of him, he could have a a field day against a hot and cold Bucks team.
Miami Heat: Everyone knows Miami has Milwaukee’s number in the playoffs. They’ve knocked out the Bucks as a five and and an eight seed when the Bucks were the one seed. Playoff Jimmy turns into a machine against them, and now he doesn’t even have to worry about Jrue Holiday guarding him. I’d take Miami in a seven game series.
My Projection
I’m willing to give the Bucks the benefit of the doubt and say they have a decent shot at reaching the conference finals because they likely won’t have to play the Celtics or the Heat on the way. It’s hard to ignore talent, and we’ve got to remember that prior to the start of the season, we thought Milwaukee was going to be unbeatable with Lillard on the roster. However, Boston has been miles ahead in Milwaukee this season, and it will take a Herculean effort from The Freak to get them over the hump. If I was ranking title favorites, I’d have the Bucks at 5th.
Bottom line: For Milwaukee to have any chance in the final two rounds of the playoffs, Khris Middleton has to be healthy and scoring 20 points per game. From there, Giannis will need to average anywhere between 35 and 40 PPG which we’ve seen he’s capable of in the playoffs. My final thought: if the Bucks go down early this season, the pot might start to stir and Milwaukee and some familiar faces might not be there next season.