NBA Playoffs First Round Preview
The NBA playoffs are officially upon us. An incredibly captivating regular season has all led to a 16-team field with each team vying to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy when it’s all set and done.
Step one: the first round. Every series is kicking off this weekend and most of them have scintillating storylines and player matchups. I can’t recall the last time there were three series’ in the same conference that peaked my interest like Rockets vs Warriors, Lakers vs Timberwolves, and Nuggets vs Clippers do, and I don’t remember the last time there were two intense rivalries in the same conference like Knicks vs Pistons and Bucks vs Pacers.
This season’s playoffs are going to be a wild ride, so let’s sit back and enjoy it.
With game one between the Pacers and Bucks underway, I’ll get straight to the point. Here are my predictions for the first round of the 2024-25 postseason.
(1) Cavaliers vs (8) Heat
The Heat have done it again. They’ve snuck into the playoffs by becoming the first team to win two Play-In games on the road in history and have been rewarded with a date with the 64-win Cavs.
Is it possible that Miami pulls off a shocking eight versus one upset again? Some think that the Cavs are a shaky one seed given that they barely made it out of the first round last year with the same core or players and that their defense has middled out recently, but I haven’t met a single person who thinks that this version of the Heat stands a chance against Cleveland.
Their offense is 24th in points per game and outside of Tyler Herro, they have nobody that wows you on offense. Herro put up 30 against the Hawks last night and the Heat still needed signature games from Davion Mitchell and Haywood Highsmith to win that game in overtime.
Meanwhile, the Cavs have several guys that can explode on any given night and carry their team to victory. They are Donovan Mitchell, a likely All-NBA first-teamer with a proven playoff pedigree, Darius Garland, a 20 PPG scorer shooting 40% from three, and Evan Mobley, a Most Improved and Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Best of all, they all work together along with Jarrett Allen, Max Strus, Ty Jerome, etc. to create the league’s most efficient offense.
Expect the Cavs to outscore the Heat in this series and if they lose game one or two, they’ll bounce back with a good shooting night in the very next game.
Prediction: Cavaliers in 5
(2) Celtics vs (7) Magic
Orlando may have one of the worst offenses in the league and an even record this season, but as a Celtics fan who lives in Boston, I can tell you that everybody wanted to play the Hawks instead of the Magic. Orlando’s physicality has made the Celtics uncomfortable in past meetings. They are the type of team that probably won’t beat Boston but will help a better team’s chances of beating them by bruising them up.
Orlando is 10-2 in their last 12 games (not including the last game of the season in which they didn’t play their starters) and more importantly, is 2-1 against them this season and 6-4 in their last ten meetings. Boston’s offense doesn’t do well against physical defenses like Orlando, particularly Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard.
However, Orlando simply does not have enough offensive firepower to beat the Celtics. They have far too many possessions where the ball starts and ends in the hands of either Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner. Those two are incredible players but they are not great enough shooters or distributors and have hardly any spacing around them. They were last in three-point percentage this season and were ice-cold in the Play-In game against Atlanta. Orlando needs better play out of their guards and unless Cole Anthony and Anthony Black combine for 40 points again like they did against the Hawks, it will continue to be the Paolo and Franz show on offense.
We already know about Boston. When fully intact, they are potentially the best team in the NBA. We watched them do it last season and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t go back-to-back this season. If Orlando had Jalen Suggs healthy, this series would be very interesting. Without him, I can’t quite get there.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
(3) Knicks vs (6) Pistons
If you’re sitting courtside for this series, don’t bring your kids. The Pistons stir the pot with any opponent and there will only be more jabs, cheap shots, trash talk, and Isaiah Stewart-inflicted brawls in a playoff setting against the glamorous Knicks. The Pistons love to play physically, but their massive leap this season has been a result of Cade Cunningham’s elite play and the shooting threats installed beside him.
Cunningham has been the second-best point guard in the league this year and will have his way against the Knicks whose defense is middle-of-the-road. He’ll be sure to pick on Jalen Brunson when he can and won’t let OG Anunoby deter his regular pace and style. The Pistons have a chance to make this a close series if they get the same production out of Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Malik Beasley who was second in the league in three-pointers this season. But if they fail to keep up on offense, they don’t stand a chance against the Knicks’ elite offense.
New York’s starting five of Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Karl-Anthony Towns is second only to Boston’s five in PPG and all five of them are threats off the dribble and from beyond the arc. Most importantly, they have two blue-chip scorers in Brunson and Towns. Brunson was second in points per game in the playoffs last season and takes over the ends of games. Towns is one of the greatest shooting big men we’ve ever seen and is averaging 24.4 PPG this season.
While the Pistons come equipped with menacing defenders like Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren and Ron Holland, the Knicks’ offensive options outnumber Detroit’s defensive tools. Even if Thompson is locking up Brunson for half a quarter, Tom Thibodeau can trust Bridges and Anunoby to score at their own will. If Duren is having his way against Towns, Thibs can go double-big with Towns and Mitchell Robinson.
The Pistons are a great story but they’ve reached the end of the road this season.
Prediction: Knicks in 5
(4) Pacers vs (5) Bucks
There are plenty of great matchups to go around in the first round, but Pacers vs Bucks is the best rivalry of the eight. These teams played each other 11 times last season including NBA Cup and playoff matchups, four more times this season and have had disdain for each other ever since Giannis Antetokounmpo took off at full speed into the Pacers’ locker room.
Pacers vs Bucks is a battle of a complete team against two superstars and a weak supporting cast and will be a good indicator of which team-building strategy is more effective. Indy’s top scorer is Pascal Siakam who averages just 20.2 points per game and has six players that score between 10 and 19 PPG. One of those players is Tyrese Haliburton, who is the conductor of the Pacers’ potent offense that is averaging 120.5 PPG in their last 15 games against Milwaukee.
Outside of Giannis, the Bucks’ defense is creaky with old players and small guards. They aren’t built to stop Indiana’s speedy attack and will need Herculean efforts out of Giannis and Damian Lillard to win. Luckily, they’re both very capable. Both have averaged north of 26 points per game in the playoffs in their careers and have produced some of the most memorable playoff moments over the years like when Lillard scored 55 points in a crucial game five against Denver in 2021 or when Giannis dropped a 50-piece to win the Finals in the same season.
Dame has turned back the clock a bit this season with nearly every statistic improved from last season and Giannis has been playing at an unthinkably high level for a month and a half which has landed the Bucks on an eight-game win streak.
Ultimately, I believe Milwaukee is too reliant on guys like Kyle Kuzma, Kevin Porter Jr., and Ryan Rollins who make me very nervous in the last minutes of a game if I’m a Bucks fan. The power of friendship will prevail in this series.
Prediction: Pacers in 6
(1) Thunder vs (8) Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are not a bad team like everybody is making them out to be, but they stand little to no chance against the Thunder who are an absolute juggernaut. They won 68 games this season and and the best point differential in NBA history.
The Thunder are led by their historically good defense which is first in defensive rating and points per game allowed by a mile. When you look at their roster, it makes sense—Lu Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace are all blistering defenders. They’ll certainly make life tough on Ja Morant, who has turned up the heat since the start of March.
The Grizzlies’ defense is the opposite of historically good. They’ve been bad for a good two and a half months and with interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo at the helm, things have only gotten worse. Since the start of February, they are 16th in defensive rating—one of the worst ratings among playoff teams. The Thunder will be able to pick on their smaller defenders and uncharacteristic lack of physicality and outscore the Grizzlies. I expect Shai-Gilgeous-Alexander, the MVP favorite who averaged 32.7 points per game this year, to score at least 35 per game in this series.
Memphis hasn’t won a game against a team over .500 since January and they lack the chip on their shoulder that is required for an eight seed to test a one seed, so why on earth would I pick them to win a single game against one of the best teams in NBA history?
Prediction: Thunder in 4
(2) Rockets vs (7) Warriors
No individual matchup will be more entertaining to watch than Steph Curry vs Amen Thompson. Curry, a wizard with his off-ball movement, handles, and of course his elite jump shot, met his match in a lightning-quick, uber-athletic, and highly instinctive Thompson the last time the Warriors played the Rockets. Houston won that game 106-96 and Curry scored just three points.
It’s not just Thompson and Curry who have a history. Steven Adams, who has started several games at center for the Rockets, played the Warriors in the playoffs when he was with the Thunder and the Grizzlies. Dillon Brooks was also on that Memphis team in 2022 and has an open rivalry with Draymond Green. Fred VanVleet beat the Warriors in the 2019 Finals with a 22-point closeout game. Even their head coach Ime Udoka has a history with the Warriors from when he lost to them in the 2022 Finals. Finally, these teams used to square off in their heydays when Curry, Klay Thompson, and Kevin Durant dueled James Harden and Chris Paul in back-to-back seasons.
Given their history along with the way these teams carry themselves—the Rockets play incredibly physically and the Warriors are led by alpha personalities— this will be the most nasty series of the eight and will come all the way down to the wire.
My scouting report doesn’t consist of much more than Thompson’s potentially smothering defense on Curry and the last eight minutes of every game. Houston’s offense has a tendency to get very static with the game in balance. Though many of the clutch stats stay otherwise, their lack of a go-to scorer hurt them in the regular season and will hurt them twice as much if they don’t figure out a solution in the playoffs.
Golden State’s recipe for success will be to win in the high-leverage moments where they’ll have an advantage due to their experience. In the end, while I have lots of respect for Houston, I can’t imagine Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green losing a game seven to a group that has never sniffed the playoffs together.
Prediction: Warriors in 7
(3) Lakers vs (6) Timberwolves
People will rush to conclusions and say that the Lakers will make easy work of the Timberwolves because they are the higher seed and have the two best players in the series with LeBron James and Luka Doncic. And as much as I’d like to say “Minnesota, South Dakota, I drive a Toyota, Lakers in 5” for Shannon Sharpe, I must admit that this will be another close first-round series.
First of all, saying the Lakers have the two best players in the series is premature. At any given point, Anthony Edwards will be the best player on the court and I predict that he’ll lead both teams in scoring. Since the All-Star break, he’s averaging 27.8 points per game which has coincided with more wins—Minnesota has won 18 of their last 22 games.
However, while the aura of the Timberwolves is built for the playoffs—they play with great physicality, aren’t scared of any opponent, and are a very tight-knit group—the roster has glaring issues, especially in a playoff series against two of the greatest minds to ever grace a basketball court.
Let’s start with Julius Randle, who often looks like he’s playing his own game of 1-on-1 in the middle of the 5-on-5 game. In his two career postseasons (2021 and 2023), his points per game have dropped 6.1 and 8.5, respectively and he’s not going to have a size advantage against LA’s stocky wings like James, Rui Hachimura, and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Then there’s Rudy Gobert, who Doncic eviscerated in the playoffs last season when the Mavericks took on the Wolves in the Western Conference Finals. Minnesota will try to hide Gobert on the Lakers’ worst wing and let him play free safety in order to protect the paint and avoid getting caught in the pick-and-roll where he is dead in the water against James and Doncic.
Finally, Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaylen Clark and Minnesota’s full arsenal of long, athletic defenders aren’t going to be as effective as usual in this series. They do very well against guards such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, James Harden, Jamal Murray, and most other guards that work off the dribble, but Doncic is the one guy they can’t stop. He is too big, too strong, and doesn’t get sped up by aggressive defense.
Minnesota is very feisty and has a top tier talent in Edwards, but it won’t be enough against the experience and talent of the Lakers.
Prediction: Lakers in 6
(4) Nuggets vs (5) Clippers
The average NBA fan is probably most intrigued by Lakers vs Timberwolves or Knicks vs Pistons, but no series rivals Nuggets vs Clippers from purely a basketball perspective, because at their best, these are both dark horse championship contenders. For the majority of the season, the Nuggets were viewed as the biggest threat to the Thunder in the West, and now, some see the Clippers as OKC’s biggest competitor.
The Clippers have been neck-and-neck with the Thunder for the top net rating in the league since the start of March. Their defense has led the way all season (3rd in DEF RTG) and they come well-equipped to guard a dangerous Nuggets offense. Kris Dunn, who is one of the best defensive guards in the league, will make life tough for Jamal Murray, and Ivica Zubac—a defensive player of the year candidate—will do about as good of a job against Nikola Jokic as any center in the NBA. On a side note, Zubac vs Jokic will be like Andre the Giant versus the Undertaker in a heavyweight clash. That’s going to be fun.
I don’t believe that Denver’s firing of Mike Malone is the reason they’ll lose; I actually believe David Adelman’s presence has ignited a fire inside of the players. But coaching only matters so much when Jamal Murray isn’t at his best. I’ll continue to say it—Denver cannot win anything unless Murray is at his best. They just lost four in a row without him and got back to their winning ways as soon as he returned. In the end, I believe Dunn, Kawhi Leonard, and Derrick Jones will be able to combat Murray whose averages in points, rebounds, and assists against the Clippers are worse than his entire season averages.
The Clippers are the better team in this series as shown by their 18-3 record since March 4th (tied for the best in the league) and they match up with the Clippers well. Add in the fact that the Clippers finally have a strong home-court advantage in the Intuit Dome, and I believe they’ll have their way.
Prediction: Clippers in 6
