Jokic and Giannis Concerns, a Lakers Collapse, and Worrying Starts for Two All-Stars
12 more games in the last two days have provided us with plenty of storylines to cover including some historically good statistical feats, NBA Cup battles, and some promising and ominous-looking outlooks for a few of the league’s top players and teams.
Two All-Time Greats, Two Bad Teams
Nikola Jokic
Last night, Nikola Jokic became the five player in NBA history to post three straight 30-point triple-double. In spite of his stat line, the Nuggets lost a thrilling game to the Mavericks by a score of 123-120.
Jokic continues to build upon one of the greatest statistical seasons in NBA history and is now averaging 30.0 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 11.5 assists this season. But he has nowhere near enough help. The Nuggets are +7.3 per game in the minutes that the Serb is on the court and -5.9 when he is off the court. When he plays, Denver is 7-4 and when he doesn’t, they are 1-2 including a loss to the Grizzlies without Ja Morant in which they only scored 90 points and a loss to the injury-ravaged Pelicans where they only scored 94. That’s led to the Nuggets scoring just 102.0 PPG when Jokic is sidelined, and 120.8 PPG in the games where he is on the court.
Jamal Murray has been a large part of the problem. He’s averaging 17.9 PPG—his lowest since 2017-18 and is shooting an uncharacteristic 39.7% from the field. After his playoff inconsistencies, messy Olympics, and a poor start to the season, there have to be legitimate concerns about Murray’s career heading downhill. He is just 27 years old.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Giannis Antetokounmpo is in a similar situation—a former champion with a formerly great point guard who can’t provide the same spark anymore and a subpar supporting cast. The Bucks have been even worse than the Nuggets (they are 7-9), which, in my opinion, is due to the fact that Giannis’ supporting cast, is older and worse defensively and he isn’t as well-rounded as the Joker.
That said, the Greek Freak had a 37-point triple-double against Indiana last night, has 78 points in his last two games, has scored at least 37 four times in his last ten, and put up a 59-piece against Detroit last week.
Giannis is averaging a league-leading and career-high 32.4 PPG to go along with 12.0 RPG, and 6.4 APG. His advanced stats such as PER, WS/48, and VORP resemble his MVP seasons, and yet, none of it will matter by April because the Bucks are not good enough to contend in the Eastern Conference.
The Bucks are 16th and 15th in offensive and defensive ratings, respectively. That’s led to 16th in net rating and 17th in plus-minus. As for the most important important traditional stat—three-point percentage—, they are 14th. Everything is middle-of-the-pack for Milwaukee. They have essentially no trade pieces and I don’t believe it’s possible for such an old, poorly-coached team to turn the season that they’ve had around. The Bucks are stuck in neutral and considering mumbles surrounding Giannis’ unhappiness in Milwaukee and Damian Lillard’s dwindling trade value, the Bucks might have to put her in reverse.
Lakers vs Magic
I spend too much time criticizing ESPN for their constant Lakers, Cowboys, and Jets-centered conversations and their hires that exemplify a view that entertainment value comes first and actual sports analysis second. I watch in disgust as loud voices like Stephen A. Smith, Mike Greenberg, Chris Russo, and Kendrick Perkins continue to get more screen time while insightful professionals such as Zach Lowe, Kirk Goldsberry, Max Kellerman, and Mark Jackson were laid off months ago.
However, I’ll admit that it’s hard to write the Front Page Headlines without mentioning the Lakers game that I was glued to on Friday Night. Up two points with 39 seconds left, LeBron James went 1-2 at the free throw line. Franz Wagner missed a game-tying three-point attempt with 27 seconds to play. The Magic fouled Anthony Davis who went 1-2 at the line himself, but left me with a feeling that the game was over given Orlando’s lack of offensive weapons to turn to. Wagner scored a driving layup with 20 seconds to play and Davis was fouled again to put the margin back to four with a couple of free throws.
As a lingering nervousness—the result of James’ and Davis’ previously missed foul shots—circulated Crypto.com arena, Davis stepped to the line and barely missed the first free throw. As Davis put up the second one, I spotted a slight twitch in his hips that told me he knew it would miss. Sure enough, the shot clanked back iron, leaving the Magic with 17.2 seconds to tie and go for the win. And unlike Todd Bowles against the Kansas City Chiefs, Franz Wagner wanted the ladder. A weak ball screen by Jalen Suggs switched Cam Reddish onto Wagner who already had 34 points in the game. Wagner went through the legs twice, stepped back to his left and drilled a 27-footer in the mouth of Reddish, giving Orlando a one-point lead with 2.5 seconds to play.
The Lakers called time to advance the ball. Austin Reaves inbounded to Davis who was guarded by premier defender Jonathan Isaac with his back 20 feet to the basket. Davis hurled a fall-away jumped at the horn but it was too strong, not even grazing the rim.
With the 119-118 loss, the Lakers slip to 10-5 and fourth in the Western Conference with a playoff rematch against the Nuggets up next tonight at 10:30. They’ve had one of the easiest schedules in the league. Prior to the Magic game, they were on a six-game winning streak with the second-best player they faced in that span being Lauri Markkanen.
On the flip side, the Magic now sit at 4th in the East with a 10-7 record and a home bout with the Pistons next on the schedule. Orlando is one of just two teams to have not yet lost a game at home this season (7-0).
A Tale of Three Guards
Tyrese Haliburton
Would it be premature of me to say that the falloff of Tyrese Haliburton needs to be studied? Let’s not forget that while Haliburton broke out last season, he was in a shooting slump for over half of the season, and was not even the first option on a team that reached the conference semifinals on the backs of injuries to their first two opponents. In fact, Haliburton never averaged more than 18.0 PPG in January, February, or March last season. This year, he’s down to 15.5 PPG and 8.5 APG on ugly 38/29/83 shooting splits.
Indiana’s pace is down from 2nd last season to 8th this season and slowed-down Haliburton in the half-court is not nearly as effective as quick-decision-making Haliburton on the fast break. His jump shot hitch is coming back to bite him and his lack of a handle is limiting his offensive creativity. I have lots more to say on Haliburton, so I’ll save my full analysis for a deeper dive but I encourage you to watch a Pacers game and watch for the difference between his game this year and last year.
Trae Young
Haliburton’s play is concerning but there’s still hope he’ll turn things around. Trae Young, on the other hand, is playing himself out of Atlanta. His shooting has been getting worse for four straight seasons now, but 2024 has been a new low. Young is shooting just 28.4% from the field and 32.3% from three and has the ability to shoot the Hawks out of games they can win. It’s taken the development of Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, and Jalen Johnson for people to finally see that there is a bright future in Atlanta that doesn’t include the 26-year-old young. Now, the question is who would want Trae Young? I see only one team that would consider trading for his contract and that is the Lakers who are desperate to package D-Angelo Russell out of town.
Jordan Poole
To end this subsection on a positive note, let’s talk about Jordan Poole. For all of the jokes made at his expense last year, Poole has been a serviceable point guard for Washington and it’s fair to say that their 2-12 record is not entirely his fault. His points, assists, and field goal percentage are up from last year and his three-point percentage is WAY up (11.7% difference). Most importantly for Poole’s image, his stupid plays are way down. Now, his defense is still terrible which is the larger problem in D.C., but his offense performance this season has been admirable.
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers finally won a game! If you showed that sentence to Philly fans before the start of the season, I’m sure they’d be in shambles, but after a 2-12 start and five straight losses, they just needed one to give their fanbase a glimmer of hope.
Jared McCain poured in another 30 points in Philly’s 113-98 victory over Brooklyn and yelled “I’m the Rookie of the Year” to his bench. McCain isn’t lying. He leads all rookies in points per game with 16.5 and he is shooting 42.7% from three. Incredibly, on a team with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George, McCain has the most win shares and the highest offensive box plus-minus on the 76ers.
With the win and help from the Celtics who staved off a scrappy Wizards performance last night, the 76ers improved their standing to 14th in the Eastern Conference. That puts them three game out of the Play-In (10th seed).
Houston Rockets
I loved Houston’s potential coming into this season but I didn’t think they would gel this quickly. They just crushed Portland 116-88 last night, holding every Trail Blazers player to 13 points or fewer. The Rockets are now 12-5 on the season which is just one game behind the first-place Warriors.
I thought that Houston would have to weed out the best player on their roster, given how many solid players they had, but they’ve been able to find their rotation while maintaining a strong collective effort across the board—no player is averaging over 19.2 points per game. Six of their top eight players are 23 or younger which doesn’t include this year’s third overall pick Reed Sheppard.
Those top eight guys are a great combination of size, offense, defense, and shooting. Jalen Green has stepped up his efficiency and decision-making, Alperen Sengun is still baby Jokic, Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks are providing veteran stability on the ball on both sides, and Tari Eason and Amen Thompson are do-it-all guys (Thompson’s potential is sky high).
Houston’s defense has been their calling card. They are second in defensive rating behind Oklahoma City Thunder and fifth in overall net rating. Ime Udoka’s defensive background seems to be working wonders after being 29th in defensive rating just two seasons ago.
There are whispers about Houston using some of their young assets to trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo or Kevin Durant. I believe if they do that, they are unnecessarily speeding up what has been a very effective rebuild and if they can’t win a championship with those players, their rotation will get old fast.
Houston should stay put because they look fantastic as is.
Pistons vs Hornets
No Pistons vs Hornets game requires an in-depth reaction, but if you watched the highlights from this game, you know why I’m talking about it. At 109-109 in the final seconds of regulation, Malik Beasley missed two point-blank shots for the win (the most Pistons way to not win a game) sending the game to overtime.
In overtime, Brandon Miller splashed an incredibly difficult fallaway three as the shot clock expired and stared at the front row as he ran back on defense. A minute later, Miller pulled from Davidson and drilled the dagger three giving him 38 points for the game. LaMelo Ball, who continues to play some of the most crafty, fun basketball I’ve ever watched, scored 35 points. That makes Miller and Ball the third youngest duo in NBA history to score 35 points in the same game.
Cade Cunningham continued his impressive play with 27 points, seven rebounds, and ten assists in the loss. He’s now averaging 23.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, and 8.9 APG—a great third to fourth-year leap.
