New York Knicks Analysis: More Than a Dark Horse
When I was planning out how to organize this series of team analyses, I was originally going to place the teams into tiers and write about multiple teams in a single article. As I was making the tiers, the Knicks were the team that had me stuck. They’re closer to 5th, 6th, and 7th in the East than they are to 3rd, but they’ve played better than the Magic, Pacers, and 76ers all season long. They’ve struggled in the last month, but they’ve been without their second and third-best players in that time period. I settled on putting them in a two-team tier with Miami, but now the Heat are in the midst of a five-game skid and are down to 8th in the East. Thus, the Knicks are in a class of their own—they’re a dangerous loomer that could break some hearts in the Eastern Conference playoffs this season. Let’s get into how they can do it.
New York Knicks (40-27, 12.5 GB)
The Positive
Everything positive with the Knicks starts and ends with Jalen Brunson. Brunson made his first all-star appearance this season and will be a legitimate candidate for All-NBA even in a swarm of ultra-talented guards. For the first time in his career, he’s a legitimate first option on a contending team, averaging 27.2 PPG, 3.6 RPD, and 6.5 APG. Brunson is an elite space creator and shot maker when he gets within 12 feet of the basket. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic are the only two guards in the league that I’d trust to score a paint bucket more than him. That balanced with his 40.0% three-point shooting has created a double-edged sword at point guard for the Knicks that opposing defenses have to scramble to defend every night.
In the playoff last year, Brunson was regularly double-teamed, and despite 40-point efforts late in their conference semifinals matchup with Miami, had too little help around him to knock off the well-rounded Heat. The Knicks front office, which was once a clown show in the mid to late 2010s, has shown its worth by acquiring multiple pieces to support Brunson. Last deadline, they picked up Brunson’s old college teammate Josh Hart and completed the Villanova trio by signing Donte DiVincenzo this offseason. Hart, particularly, has stepped up this season.
Hart since the start of February
13.3 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG
Three triple-doubles
#2 in minutes per game
Hart since the start of March
#1 in defensive win shares
#8 in defensive rating
#1 in minutes per game
+6.4 despite no Randle or Anunoby
Hart is Tom Thibodeau’s iron man. He consistently guards the opponent’s best player while only sitting for one or two minutes in some games.
The Knicks’ other additions came in the middle of this season when they added OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Alec Burks while only losing RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and Evan Fournier who was taking up a massive chunk of New York’s cap space. Anunoby’s length, physicality, and ability to guard 1-4 (sometimes 5) on the defensive end is exactly what the Knicks needed, and his three-point shooting coupled with Bojan Bogdanovic, who is a known sniper, takes pressure off of Brunson, generates better spacing, and creates flexibility in their offense.
Knicks three-point shooting
Bogdanovic: 41.5%
Brunson: 40.2%
DiVincenzo: 39.6%
Anunoby: 37.4%
Anunoby and DiVincenzo also add championship pedigree to the Knicks. Anunoby was on the 2018-2019 Raptors championship team, and although injured, DiVincenzo rode the Bucks’ title wave in the 2020-2021 season.
One concern for the Knicks was center depth after Mitchell Robinson fractured his ankle in early December. Robinson is an elite rebounder, especially on the offensive glass where he led the league with 5.3 OREB per game, and backup center, Isaiah Hartenstein, had only ever started twelve career games. But Hartenstein has worked his tail off since filling in for Robinson, playing the best basketball of his career. He’s averaged 3.3 OREB of his own—7th in the league, and is an above-average passer at his position. Anunoby, Brunson, and Randle are the top three Knicks in terms of plus minus, but right behind Randle at +4.4 is Hartenstein—a tribute to his versatility and overall improvement throughout his career as a journeyman.
The Knicks as a team are still top-5 in most rebounding categories including offensive rebounds where they rank second with 12.8 per game. That’s the type of toughness and grit that win teams playoff games when everything else isn’t working.
Finally, the Knicks have worked themselves to within two games of Cleveland, who are slumping, for the third spot in the East, and are only three games back of Milwaukee who have the 4th hardest remaining schedule. There is legitimate potential for the Knicks to snare the two or three seed and avoid Boston until the conference finals.
When healthy, the Knicks are good enough to go toe to toe with Milwaukee and Cleveland. Anunoby returned for them last night, so they are just waiting on the return of Julius Randle, who has also been good for the Knicks this season, averaging 24.0/9.2/5.0 on 47.2% shooting. When the roster is fully re-bolstered, a serious case can be made that New York is the second-best team in the East.
The Negative
Injuries have been and remain the biggest concern for the Knicks. Anunoby just returned last night against the Kings but did not look particularly sharp. Randle is still out, however, and his timetable for return continues to be cloudy. Randle dislocated his right shoulder in late January. The report was that he would be re-evaluated 2-3 weeks after the injury, but the next report was that he would look to avoid missing the entirety of the regular season (11 weeks after the injury). On March 10th, Randle still wasn’t cleared for contact which is more cause for concern with the Knicks. Now, the hope is that Randle won’t need season-ending surgery on his shoulder, but that has not been ruled out.
Though New York faithful often bash Randle for being inconsistent, he’s still their indisputable second option and has the ability to create easy offense in ways that Anunoby, Bogdanovic, and Hart don’t. When Hart stepped in as the second/third option for the Knicks, his numbers boosted and he was given more responsibility, but he wasn’t able to carry the load when it came to shooting. He shot 34.5% from three in February and just 31.4% in March (the two months Randle has missed). It’s worth noting that February and March were the two worst three-point shooting months for Brunson and DiVincenzo making it clear that Randle’s presence makes everybody’s job easier on the offensive end.
Another suspect part of the Knicks lineup is the backup center position. I already mentioned that they are thin at center because of Robinson’s injury and Anunoby isn’t nearly big enough to operate as a small ball five. Thus, they’ve had to rely upon Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims—neither of whom have been reliable. Sure, Achiuwa has played well for stretches this season, but he’s also been inconsistent. As for Sims, he gets dominated every time I watch him, leading me to be nervous about their rotation especially if Hartenstein were to get injured prior to the postseason.
Although I praised some of the core Knicks for hitting their threes at a high clip, New York still hasn’t been great from beyond the arc compared to the rest of the league. They’re 18th in the league in three-point percentage (36.3%) which is 14th among the 16th teams in playoff position—only Philadelphia and Orlando are shooting worse from distance. For some perspective, Boston—who is New York’s most likely second-round matchup—is 29-4 against teams int he bottom half of the league in three-point percentage. The Knicks will have to step it up in that department to give themselves a chance to make a deep run.
Good Matchups
Indiana Pacers: The Pacers’ slight offensive decline and dip in the standings has coincided with Tyrese Haliburton’s struggles to score and assist at the rate he did at the start of the season. Hart and Anunoby will only make life tougher on him, and without Bennedict Mathurin for the season, I doubt the Pacers will have enough to score 120+ per game for seven games, especially with Randle likely matched up on Siakam.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Similarly to Indiana, the Cavs rely heavily on their backcourt which will only get harder with the Knicks’ solid perimeter defenders. Where Cleveland thrives is with their paint defense against bigs, but New York isn’t reliant on scoring from the centers. Finally, although Cleveland has improved their wing group, I expect one of Bogdanovic and Anunoby to target Max Strus on defense throughout a potential series.
Bad Matchups
Boston Celtics: We can look at matchups, health, and experience, or we could just focus on the bottom line which is that New York is 0-4 against Boston this season and has lost by an average of 11 points. Holiday and White have been good enough defensively to guard Brunson one-on-one—something most guards can’t do—which limits what the Knicks can do on offense. Boston’s size on offense has also overwhelmed the Knicks at times this year.
Miami Heat: When the lights shone brightest, we saw that the Heat were too much for the Knicks even without a healthy Jimmy Butler for most of the series. Bam Adebayo will look to feast on Isaiah Hartenstein and will limit Hartenstein’s productivity on the boards. Further, the Knicks are 7th among the eight east playoff teams in three-point percentage allowed, and when Miami gets hot from three, they’re very hard to beat. They’re called the Heat, after all.
My Projection
I see the Knicks reaching the conference semifinals for the sole reason that I don’t expect them to get up to the third seed in the East as long as Randle is still out. Though they’ll put up a good fight against Boston, I’ll take the Celtics in six If you’re curious, right now I’d take New York to beat Miami in seven games if they matched up in the first round as long as New York has home court advantage.
Bottom line: I am one of those people who will make the case for the Knicks being the second-best team in the East when healthy. Thus, their playoff success depends more upon seeding than any team in the playoffs for me. Being in the 1, 4, 5, 8 side of the bracket could mean the Knicks have to beat the Celtics and the Heat. However, if they end up in the 2, 3, 6, and 7 side, I like New York to make the conference finals. The end of the regular season will be essential to the Knicks like no other team, so tune in.