OKC Thunder Analysis: Business is Booming
Who could have seen this coming? Sure, there was excitement surrounding the Thunder entering this season after they overachieved in 2023 by reaching the final Play-In game, but nobody could have anticipated they would be neck and neck with the defending champions for the first seed in the Western Conference.
Many people—particularly the numerous Celtics fans who read my articles—are not aware of why the Thunder have been great this season and assume that their little joyride of a season will get ugly in the playoffs. I’m here to tell you why that’s not true and why this Thunder team is a legitimate contender this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder (50-21, 0.5 GB)
The Positive
The Thunder may be second in the West but that’s not the 2 that everyone has their eyes on. No, that’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA has silenced the doubters who thought his 2022-2023 campaign was a fluke by leading the NBA in points, free throws, field goal percentage among guards, and steals on remarkable efficiency while being just 25th in minutes per game. As a result, he’s in a tight race with Nikola Jokic—one of the greatest players of this generation—for the MVP award.
Shai is virtually unguardable these days with his three-point shot looking better than ever; he’s shooting 36.7% from distance which is his highest of any season in which he played at least 40 games. His passing has improved to 6.9 assists per game, and as we all know, his perimeter iso game is better than your favorite player’s (Mavs fans might have something to say about that). But SGA isn’t in the MVP race just because of himself. His teammates’ elevated play from last year has taken some of the load off him—particularly Jalen Williams, who I believe will be an All-NBA player within the next two seasons.
Williams is an efficient scorer, an All-NBA level defender, a solid rebounder, and a terrific passer for his age. There are a limited number of second options that I’d take over him: Jaylen Brown, Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, Kyrie Irving, De’Aaron Fox, and maybe Bam Adebayo, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Jamal Murray. Williams’ strongest quality has been described on the Bill Simmons Podcast and JJ Redick’s podcast and it is that “he gives a s***.” He plays every night, guards 1-4, hustles extremely hard, and brings loads of positive energy. By the way, remember when I mentioned that Gilgeous-Alexander is 1st in the league in field goal percentage among guards? That was a lie. He’s tied for first with none other than Jalen Williams. In fact, Williams hasn’t shot below 50% from the field since March 4th. Ridiculous numbers for a guard.
Williams also shoots a lights out 44.1% from deep which is fourth best among qualified shooters in the entire league. He’s part of the reason why the Thunder lead the entire NBA in three-point percentage, but he’s not the only factor.
Thunder three-point shooting this season
Aaron Wiggins: 49.0% on 1.5 3PA
Jalen Williams: 44.1% on 3.3 3PA
Lindy Waters III: 41.7% on 1.9 3PA
Cason Wallace: 41.0% on 2.4 3PA
Isaiah Joe: 40.7% on 4.5 3PA
Luguentz Dort: 40.4% on 5.0 3PA
Kenrich Williams: 38.8% on 2.0 3PA
Chet Holmgren: 38.4% on 4.3 3PA
In fact, OKC has 15 guys that shoot over one three-pointer per game, and of those 15, only SGA, Josh Giddey, and Ousmane Dieng shoot below the league average for their position. Something about Giddey and that number 15, huh?
It’s important to remember that average guys as many of these players are couldn’t perform this well on just any team. SGA has so much gravitational pull when he has the ball in his hands that the Thunder are able to get open looks whenever they want.
Thunder Three-point Shooting Frequencies Based on Closest Defender
30th in attempts with closest defender between 0-2 feet (very tight)
30th in attempts with closest defender between 2-4 feet (tight)
1st in attempts with closest defender 6+ feet away (wide open)
The Thunder breed efficiency. They’re 2nd in FG%, 1st in 3PFG%, 1st in FT%, and their fantastic spacing due to Chet Holmgren’s three-point shooting ability has allowed them to be 1st in drives per game, 3rd in FG% on those drives, and 1st in free-throws generated. Finally, their 1st in PPG in the pick and roll.
They are incredibly versatile on offense’ with Holmgren able to stretch the floor, and Williams’ and SGA’s abilities to play in the post. They engage in many different sets due to the various shapes their offense takes after a defensive stop as a result of their defensive versatility. Their perimeter guys can also operate in the dunker spot.
But as much as the media likes to glamour the Thunder’s high-power offense, we know that defense wins championships and OKC’s got D. They rank 5th in defensive rating making them the only team besides the Celtics that is top-5 in both offense and defense (they’re 3rd in offense).
SGA is the league leader in steals. Lu Dort has been a lockdown defender since 2020. Chet Holmgren is second in the league in blocks, and Jalen Williams is playing like an All-Defensive player candidate. And they can all switch 1-4 with the exception of Holmgren. So, how do you attack the Thunder? There aren’t many answers. All in all, they are 3rd in opponent field goal percentage while averaging the most turnovers forced per game with 15.7. There’s not a lot of leeway when you face the Thunder.
Further, the entirety of OKC embodies what the media says about Jalen Williams—they all give a s***.
Thunder Hustle Stats
1st in deflections, def. loose balls recovered, % of def. loose balls recovered.
2nd in charges drawn, contested shots and 3-pt shots.
3rd in contested 2-pt shots.
Finally, I’d like to push back against the primary criticism of Oklahoma City which is that they are not playoff-ready. Age is not the only marker that determines if a team is “playoff ready,” there are many others.
Last year, the Cavaliers—a young upstart much like Oklahoma City—were not able to make adjustments against the Knicks and admitted that the lights were too bright for them. Oklahoma City has 8-9 guys who I’d trust to close a playoff game. Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, Giddey, Holmgren, Joe, Hayward, and Wiggins are all capable of finishing when the lights shine brightest.
The Thunder are never forced out of their identity. This is because they have a number one option that is so good at making adjustments on the fly that he’s always comfortable running any type of offense.
They rarely get phased late in games. They have the 6th best record in the clutch in the NBA, the 2nd best FG%, and very importantly, the 3rd best FT%.
They have a raucous home crowd which helps anyone in the postseason. Even if OKC loses the one-seed race to Denver, they are more than likely to capture a top-two seed which would give them two rounds of home-court advantage. Having the upper hand over hostile atmospheres like Sacramento, Minnesota, and other likely opponents could prove to be massive for the Thunder.
The Negative
I’ve got to say, I did a lot of digging for things that the Thunder do poorly, and there just aren’t many. But there are two many concerns to be—the first being less of my concern and more of an NBA media concern and that is their lack of depth at the center position. OKC’s needs at the trade deadline seemed clear; they needed a backup center. Holmgren has had a terrific season at the five spot averaging 16.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game on 53.6/38.0/79.5 shooting, but he what he has in length and skill, he lacks in strength and, at times, in rebounding.
Daniel Gafford appeared to be the obvious target for the Thunder but he was signed by the Mavs. OKC ended up sticking with Jaylin Williams in the backup position. Now, Williams and Bismack Biyombo are capable centers, but they are no match for the top big men in the West like Jokic, Anthony Davis, and Domantas Sabonis. If Holmgren’s body makes one wrong move, which we’ve already seen when he suffered a Lisfranc injury prior to his rookie season, the Thunder could get put in a tricky spot, especially with undersized forwards who can’t play center.
I mentioned Holmgren’s rebounding, but the issues haven’t all been about him. As a team, the Thunder corral the 27th most rebounds per game. The other four teams in the bottom five are Detroit, Washington, Charlotte, and Portland—four of the five worst teams in the NBA. They are also 29th in offensive rebounding. Second-chance points are huge in the playoffs given the slowed pace, so this is a definite red flag.
The Thunder’s main concern to me is Josh Giddey. After a promising second-year leap, Giddey’s struggles in his third year have been more than minor. He is only shooting 34.6% from three this season making him by far the worst shooter in the starting lineup. Teams have started to leave Giddey wide open to shoot because it’s a better bet than sagging off of SGA or any other Thunder player. More and more, opponents are putting their center on Giddey and leaving him wide open so they can clog the paint making life more difficult for Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, and Holmgren when they do work near the rim. Here is a link to a two-minute compilation of opposing centers leaving Giddey wide open. It’s even crazier when you realize that all two minutes are from a four-game span this season.
It’s worth noting that Giddey is also the worst defender in the starting lineup with a mediocre defensive rating of 111.6. In my opinion, the Thunder should keep an eye on closing playoff games with Isaiah Joe instead of Giddey.
A few other small concerns are that the Thunder can be a bit too reliant on the three ball—they shoot 41.0% in wins and 34.3% in losses—and that Gordon Hayward has not looked at all sharp since he was acquired at the trade deadline. He’s only averaging 4.0 PPG as a member of the Thunder and just 1.0 3PA per game.
Finally, although I believe in OKC’s maturity and poise on a big stage, age and experience cannot go without stating. The Thunder have an average age of 23.8 years—the second youngest in the league—and have by far the least experience of any Western Conference playoff team.
SGA has played two playoff series’ but has never been a number one option, Dort has played one in 2020, and Giddey, Williams, and Holmgren will all be newcomers. No team has ever won the finals with that little experience, and for what it’s worth, the youngest team to ever win the finals was the Trail Blazers in 1977 who had an average age of 24.2.
Good Matchups
Los Angeles Clippers: For most teams, it’s pick your poison for who they put their weak perimeter defender on against the Clippers’ big three of James Harden, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard. Not the Thunder. I reckon they’ll put Dort and Harden as they did in the 2020 playoffs vs Houston, SGA on George, and Williams on Leonard with Giddey on Norman Powell. This will force other guys to get involved for LA which hasn’t been the safest of bets this year.
Dallas Mavericks: Lu Dort struggles against quick shifty guards but thrives against big guards like Doncic. Doncic even called Dort a “top-three defender in the league.” On the other side of the floor, PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford are nowhere near as capable of contesting SGA’s and JDub’s drives as Gobert is. Finally, give me Mark Daigneault over Jason Kidd in a coaching matchup any day of the week.
Bad Matchups
Minnesota Timberwolves: Minnesota’s paint defense is the best part of their defense which is already the best in the league. It starts and ends with Rudy Gobert who has held Chet Holmgren to 13.8 PPG 6.0 RPG on 40.0% shooting in 4 games. The length of Gobert and KAT has made life difficult for OKC’s driving guards. Overall, Minnesota is 2-2 vs OKC this season and has held them to 108.8 PPG—much lower compared to the 120.3 that they’ve averaged all season.
Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers seem to puzzle the Thunder. They won their final three meetings this season and has been partially due to Anthony Davis’ domination of Chet Holmgren. AD has averaged 27 PPG and 13 RPG vs OKC. The Lakers have also played up to their competition very well this year. They have winning records against the Thunder, Clippers, Pelicans, and Suns this season.My Projection
Unlike some other teams in the West, I believe the Thunder are for real. Even if they get matched up against Minnesota in the conference semifinals, I like OKC in six or seven. Ultimately, I believe Jokic and Denver will overwhelm the undersized Thunder, but I would also not be shocked if OKC pulled off a run to the finals. They are one heck of a team.
Bottom line: Giddey and Chet will determine how far the Thunder can go. If Giddey can stroke it from deep in the playoffs and Chet holds his own against the elite big men of the Western Conference, the Thunder become the most complete team in the West and have a chance to make the Finals. If not, an early exit could be in store.