Panel Picks Week 17 Results

Dec 30, 2022

As week 17 approaches (Dallas actually leads Tennessee 7-0 as I’m writing), I collected a group of friends to make our weekly picks. If you’ve ever listened to the Around the Associations podcast on 88.3 FM, you know that the usual pickers are myself and Roman Caggiano. With Roman enjoying his vacation in Puerto Rico, I turned to George Constable, Ray Pavlik, Josh Sun, and Kevin Wright.

George is an accomplished fantasy football player, a hardcore Ravens fan, and has, in fact, gone to several of the best Ravens’ games in recent years. On the contrary, George’s favorite player of all time is RB, Julius Chestnut, of the Titans.

Ray is a Patriots fan, who will argue endlessly that Stephen Gostkowski is the greatest kicker of all time, and picked Mac Jones as this year’s Super Bowl MVP. There’s still a chance.

Josh is also a Patriots fan, who enjoys the ups and downs of New England fandom. Just last week, he taunted me about the Ravens’ 10-3 loss to the Browns. A day later, he was ranting about how the Patriots need to completely rebuild after losing on a last-second touchdown to the Raiders.

Kevin, our final resident Patriots fan, is an Offensive Lineman at Concord-Carlisle High School. He is not a big Matt Patricia fan, to say the least.

And then, there’s me. Here are the picks.

Primetime Games

Early Window Games

Late Window Games

Most alike picks: Josh and I picked the same result in 14 of the 16 games.

Least alike picks: Kevin picked differently from Josh and I on 8 of 16 games.

Most upsets picked: Josh picked 6 underdogs (CIN, NO, CAR, CLE, SEA, LAR).

Least upsets picked: George only picked 1 underdog (CIN).

Most picks with the majority: George picked with the majority 15 times.

Most picks against the majority: Josh and Kevin each picked against the majority 4 times.

What Stands Out?

The panel picked the Patriots in a sweep over the Dolphins. I suppose this isn’t much a surprise with Tua Tagovailoa out, in concussion protocol. But Teddy “Two Gloves” Bridgewater is no slouch. With pro-bowl caliber weapons in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, I think Miami should still be favored. Plus, after the last two weeks, its hard to make the “you can’t pick against the Patriots in late-game, late-season situations” argument.
Both Kevin and Josh picked against the Eagles which isn’t unforgivable given the fact that Gardner Minshew is starting. But Philadelphia did hang 34 points last week against Dallas with Minshew as the starter. Plus, the Saints? A 6-9 team that his been inconsistent week to week and is averaging 14 points in their last 4 games? Seems suspect.
4 votes for the Pack??? Sure, the Vikings are no ordinary 12-3 team. Their win differential (+9) is higher than their point differential (+5). They’re 11-0 in one-score games which doesn’t seem sustainable. But they’re still 12-3, and beat the Packers 23-7 in week one. The biggest reasons to pick the Packers are that Green Bay has won it’s their last 3, the venue is ice-cold Lambeau Field, and Aaron Rodgers’ past success in 4:25 games. For me? I’m just a sucker for Rodgers in December.

Playoff Picture

Let’s pretend our majority pick in each matchup won this weekend. These would be the updated playoff pictures in each conference. The percentages indicate the chance each team has of reaching the playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight.

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs: 13-3 — 100%
Cincinnati Bengals: 12-4 — 100%
Buffalo Bills: 12-4 —100%
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 — 77%
Baltimore Ravens: 11-5 — 100%
Los Angeles Chargers: 10-6 — 100%
New England Patriots: 8-8 — 22%

IN THE HUNT

New York Jets: 8-8 — 33%
Miami Dolphins: 8-8 — 44%
Tennesee Titans: 7-9 — 23%

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles: 14-2 — 100%
San Fransisco 49ers: 12-4 — 100%
Minnesota Vikings: 12-4 — 100%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8 — 100%
Dallas Cowboys: 12-4 — 100%
New York Giants: 9-6-1 — 100%
Detroit Lions: 8-8 — 40%