Playoff QB Index: Who's Facing The Most Pressure?
QB Index #1
Playoff football is about a lot more than 60 minutes of a game. Winning the big games can cement legacies. Nick Foles was nothing more than a backup for much of his career before the Eagles’ improbable Super Bowl run in 2017, and is now considered a Philadephia legend. Postseason success generates big contracts. After his miraculous Super Bowl win in 2020, Patrick Mahomes earned the most expensive contract in NFL history—10 years, $500M. Stepping it up come playoff time can also determine a player’s future in an organization. Remember when Taylor Heinicke almost upset the G.O.A.T. in the playoffs two years ago in his first career start? The reason he’s still in the league, and had started most of the season for the Commanders this year, is because of his strong, 23-point performance in that wild-card game.
This year, there are numerous quarterbacks with their futures up in the air. So, I made a list of the quarterbacks that face the pressure this postseason. I had a debate with future Around the Associations writer, Josh Sun, about whether the need to make money or to add to legacy was a bigger source of pressure, and eventually, we compromised and considered them equal.
So, without further ado, let’s examine the pressure rankings.
One more thing: I assumed that Tua Tagovailoa would start for Miami and that Lamar Jackson would start for Baltimore (although I don’t actually believe he will).
14. Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence finds himself facing the least pressure of anyone because he is ahead of schedule. Just last year, the Jaguars were 3-14, a product of Urban Meyer’s turmoil and Lawrence’s poor play, and now they are 9-8, and the 4th seed in the AFC as a result of his leap into the top 10 in quarterback rating, and passing touchdowns. Thus, Lawrence doesn’t need to prove anything. Jacksonville will continue to build around him in the offseason. If he loses to the Chargers. it will be viewed as the end to a strong season for the second-year QB, and a step forward in his career experience-wise.
13. Tom Brady
Sure, there are a lot of questions surrounding Brady’s future. Will he retire and turn to his $375M contract at FOX? Will he leave the Bucs for another team? Will he stay, and commit to Tampa Bay? No one knows. There are doubts about his future, but at the end of the day, Brady has proven more than anyone could have expected out of a slow, 6th-round pick in 2000. Brady faces criticism if he loses, but nothing career-altering.
12. Brock Purdy
Like Brady during the early stages of his career, Purdy was not expected to become much. After all, he is “Mr. Irrelevant." Well, he has absolutely exceeded expectations, going 5-0 in his first 5 starts, and averaging 2.2 TDs per game. (not counting his excellent showing against Miami in which he replaced Jimmy Garoppolo in the 1st quarter). If he was qualified (he hasn’t started enough games), Purdy would rank 5th in QBR. Plus, in all likelihood, with Jimmy Garoppolo halfway out the door, Purdy would be the week 1 starter next year, even if he hiccups in the playoffs.
11. Justin Herbert
Sure, fans would have hoped that Herbert’s career record would be north of 25-24, but that’s where he is, and Los Angeles will be happy that their leader is finally in the playoffs. Though again, there were preseason expectations that the Chargers would make a run at the title, you can’t blame Herbert for their inconsistency this year—they’ve simply been too injured. Like his opponent, Trevor Lawrence, a loss will be viewed as an important experience in developing a promising career, but he lands higher on the list than Lawrence because he was given the third shortest odds to win league MVP before week 1.
10. Geno Smith
Geno is one of the most interesting cases on this list because his next season is a complete unknown. Smith could very well return on a transition tag as the starter, and knowing Pete Carroll’s faith in his QB, that is the most probable scenario. However, there is always the possibility that Seattle goes quarterback hunting in free agency, but in fairness to Smith, their only upgrades are Lamar Jackson, and potentially, a draft pick such as Ohio State QB, C.J. Stroud. From a football perspective, Smith has had his best career season and has led a Seahawks team that was projected to be last in the league to the 7th seed. He doesn’t have much to prove against the 49ers.
9. Joe Burrow
Unlike other top-tier quarterbacks such as Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott, Burrow has been to a super bowl. He also did so in his second year, a year in which Jackson lost in the divisional round, Allen was bounced in the wild-card round, and Prescott missed out on the playoffs altogether. In that regard, Burrow has evaded any serious pressure to win a super bowl in the next couple of seasons, especially with the surplus of contenders in the AFC. Where things could get a little bit dangerous for Joe Shiesty is if he loses to the Ravens on Sunday night. With everything going on in Baltimore, Cincinnati has no business losing this game. A loss would certainly raise a few eyebrows.
8. Tua Tagovailoa
This was a hard one. The last time we saw Tagovailoa, he was spraying the ball all over the field to Green Bay defenders—he threw 3 second-half interceptions in that week 15 game. However, he was concussed, so it’s hard to take that performance seriously into account. The same is true with wild-card weekend against the Bills. Not much will be expected of Tua—if he plays at all. His team will be the 7-seed, going against an AFC powerhouse, and most people will likely excuse him for a bad performance because of the concussions this season. This doesn’t mean he’s free of pressure. Tagovailoa’s performance dipped as the season went on, and there are still questions about if he is the future in Miami. Lamar Jackson will be a free agent his year, and Miami is his home city. Tua needs to prove to the Dolphins that he’s worth it.
7. Kirk Cousins
Cousins has the money figured out, arguably being one of the more overpaid quarterbacks in the league during his career. He is extended through 2023 and will make $36.25M next year. Where the pressure exists for the Vikings’ QB is in his old-ish age and his ability to be outstandingly mediocre. This year, Cousins has played the best football of his career this season with one of the best supporting casts in the league, and yet, Minnesota is still not considered a serious contender. Not to mention his nightmare-ish record in non-one-o’clock games. If the Vikings get first-rounded and Cousins plays poorly, Minnesota could move on from him when he is 36 years old, an age when his value would be low. A lot rides on Sunday’s game for Kirk.
6. Lamar Jackson
Given his contract situation, Jackson is lower than some might have anticipated. However, the Ravens are 9-point underdogs against Cincinnati, so not a lot is expected of them. For Jackson, he needs to show that he can elevate the Ravens’ poor offense, and avoid any sort of injury. If he can do this, he can go into contract negotiations feeling confident that he’s proven his worth. If he doesn’t? His stock may decrease from the $250M guaranteed that he asked Baltimore for before the season, and there will be more questions raised about his playoff performances—he is just 1-3 in the postseason thus far in his career.
5. Daniel Jones
If things fall the right way, Jones—whose fifth-year option was declined by the Giants in the offseason—could be franchise tagged and make $32.5M next year before signing a new contract with New York. Things could also take a tumble for Jones. If the Giants use the transition tag on him, he would make $5M less than he would if he were franchise tagged. Then, if he were to struggle next year, as he had for the first four years of his career, the Giants may not look to sign him. Either way, Jones won’t have much guaranteed money even if he does get franchise tagged, so he will need to keep improving at a high rate, and winning big games for the organization. And no game is bigger than the Giants’ wild-card game against the Vikings on Sunday. Jones has to show up.
4. Jalen Hurts
Towards the end of the regular season, there were lingerings that Hurts was just a system quarterback—after all, he is working with a top-3 receiving core, a pro-bowl RB, a great defense, and the league’s best O-Line. In week 18, Hurts and the offense didn’t exactly light it up; he went for 20/35 and a pick. We know the narrative of running QBs like Hurts—can that type of quarterback win a super bowl? Hurts was great in the regular season last year too but struggled in his first career playoff start. He needs to avoid playoff struggles becoming a theme. Additionally, Hurts’ rookie deal is hovering at around $1M, and he will be a free agent in 2023, so he needs to prove his worth this year. What saves Hurts from being at the top of the list is that the Eagles’ first playoff game will likely be against the Vikings, a 13-4 team, the Bucs, who are led by the greatest to ever do it, or the Cowboys, a well-rounded 12-5 team who already beat the Eagles once this year.
3. Josh Allen
Allen has gone through a rollercoaster year. In the divisional round last season, he lost to the Chiefs in what was, perhaps, the greatest game ever. This year, the Bills were heavy favorites, with hopes of going 17-0. However, injuries came into play for the Bills, including for Allen, who suffered a lingering elbow injury in week 6. Of course, horror struck Buffalo, with the near-death of Damar Hamlin, leaving the Bills grieving just weeks before the playoffs. It feels as though Allen will get some form of a pass if this is not the year for the Bills, given everything that has happened. With that said, Allen is in a conversation with Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes for best QB in the league, but they both have a Super Bowl appearance, while Allen hasn’t made it past the AFC championship, and is just 3-3 in playoff starts (Burrow is 3-1 and Mahomes is 8-3). The Bills are still considered favorites to win the dance by many people, and a loss before the Super Bowl would be highly disappointing.
2. Patrick Mahomes
There is actually less pressure on Mahomes than in years past because of the loss of Tyreek Hill, and the juggernauts that the Bills and the Bengals are. However, signing a quarterback to a 10-year, $500M contract means 3-5 Super Bowls are expected out of him.
Mahomes in the playoffs before the contract: 1 Super Bowl, 78.3 QBR
Mahomes in the playoffs after the contract: 0 Super Bowls, 70.4 QBR
The point is, it’s Patrick Mahomes, and he should be expected to win a Super Bowl every year given his never-seen-before ability. 0 championships will not cut it, no matter how well he plays. KC fans may begin to wonder if Mahomes’ gigantic contract is worth it if the Chiefs fall short again.
1. Dak Prescott
Prescott has been one of the biggest mysteries in the league this season. At times, he has looked like an MVP, but most of the time, he has been lackluster, leading the league in interceptions in only 12 games. In the last five weeks, he almost gifted the 1-11-1 Texans a win with 2 picks. He threw a game-losing pick-six vs Jacksonville. Against the Eagles, he was solid but made several dangerous throws including an interception. He threw two bad, first-half picks against the Titans, and threw a terrible pick-six vs Washington while posting a QBR of 14.8. Prescott cannot afford to have another game riddled with costly errors. If he does, the Bucs will take advantage, and he will face endless scrutiny from his fanbase. Head coach, Mike McCarthy, could be fired. There will be questions about Prescott he is the guy. There may be free-agent QB rumors. And let’s not forget that Dallas is one of the biggest markets in the league, and Jerry Jones—a man without the patience for Dak’s struggles—is the face of it.
If you watch the playoffs, think about this list, and let me know what you think.
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