Ranking Teams Most Likely to Win the Super Bowl
Right now, there are eight teams that can make a legitimate case for winning the Super Bowl. The Rams and Bucs are getting hot at the right time but both have glaring flaws on defense and its rare you see a team start 5-5 or worse and go on to win it all. None of the Broncos, Chargers, and Seahawks have made a statement win this season and are untrustworthy at quarterback, receiver, and on the offensive line, respectively. As for Washington and Houston, they don’t have enough playoff experience and have not played their best football in months.
Thus, I have narrowed my list of contenders to eight teams. The Bills, Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, Vikings, and Packers all have a shot at hoisting the Lombardi at the end of the year.
Let me be very clear: these are not power rankings. Power rankings are a reflection of a team’s past. Super Bowl rankings are a projection of a team’s future.
Let’s rank the contenders.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
Let’s face it. There are 20 quarterbacks you’d rather have than Russell Wilson. I understand that 2024 has been somewhat of a renaissance year for the 36-year-old, but I don’t trust him in snowy Buffalo or deafening Arrowhead against high-caliber opponents on the biggest stage.
Pittsburgh’s defense is real and has the ability to force game-altering turnovers, but their offense is too inconsistent to string together four straight victories. In their last five games, they’ve scored under 20 points three times which is concerning given that the Steelers are on pace to play the Bills in a divisional matchup. Buffalo has cleared the 30-point threshold in eight straight games and shows no signs of slowing down.
7. Detroit Lions
Every year, there are a few teams that are eliminated by injury. Detroit is on the verge of becoming one of those teams. They have 17 defenders on their injury report and lost David Montgomery for the season against the Bills. When a team has that many players missing on defense, they have to play virtually perfectly on offense. And even when the Lions did that, they lost 48-42 to Buffalo.
Aside from the fact that their two-headed backfield has lost one of its heads, Jared Goff doesn’t move the needle enough on offense to pull the Lions out of the mud if their defense is surrendering score after score.
The trouble for Detroit is that their chances of getting home-field advantage for the playoffs are declining as Philadelphia and Minnesota keep winning. I find it hard to believe that if the Lions don’t get the one seed, they’ll be able to reel off four games in a row with at least one of them on the road—especially if it’s in Philly.
6. Baltimore Ravens
At their best, the Ravens can beat any team. They’ve consistently been the best offense in the league all year long like we expected they would be after building upon a breakout year in 2023 by signing Derrick Henry.
However, Baltimore hasn’t shown any consistency this season which leads me to believe they’ll have a stinker at some point in the playoffs. Their defense is 23rd in points per game allowed and 31st in passing yards allowed per game. Most importantly, they give up far too many big plays that break the game open. Now, in an AFC playoff picture that has an unusually low supply of great receivers (Nico Collins, George Pickens, Zay Flowers, and Courtland Sutton are the best ones), the Ravens can get by with a poor passing defense and lean on a steely rush defense. But that’s a big if.
A shaky defense isn’t the only problem. The sun is setting on the career of Justin Tucker, who threw away a potential win against the Eagles two weeks ago, putting the Ravens in a wild-card position as opposed to at the top of the AFC North. No kicker has left more points on the field (26) than Tucker this year which could nip the Ravens in the bud in a close playoff game.
The Ravens can win it all, but they need more than Lamar Jackson playing like Superman as he has all season.
5. Buffalo Bills
Don’t let Josh Allen’s monster last month deceive you. This team still has flaws. Much like the Ravens have done all season, the Bills found a way to lose to a 6-6 Rams squad in the midst of a historically good game by their quarterback. The Bills have figured out how to manage the offense without Pro-Bowlers at their skill positions and then some. But their defense, which was viewed as leaky prior to the season after they released several starters, is finally coming down to earth.
Buffalo allowed 18.7 points per game in their first 10 contests including five games in which they allowed exactly 10 points. In their last two games against the Rams and Lions, the Bills have allowed 86 combined points. Yes, those are two of the best offenses in the NFL, but hey, in the playoffs, you play good offenses.
Unlike the Ravens, the Bills’ quarterback has a great playoff history. Allen has a career 93.6 rating in the regular season and a 100.0 rating in the playoffs including a perfect 2022 postseason and a 4:0 TD:INT ratio last year. They’re likely to play two games in Buffalo which will set up a potential rivalry rematch against the Chiefs which we already know the Bills can win. They’ll need their defense to step up to the plate though.
4. Minnesota Vikings
You may discredit me for placing the Vikings ahead of the Bills and Lions, but you only win a Super Bowl if you are complete in all three phases.
The Vikings have a lights-out defense led by a mastermind in Brian Flores. They generate all kinds of pressure and boast an experienced and athletic secondary that leads the NFL in interceptions. They’re led by the second-best rush defense in the entire NFL which will do wonders in a conference with Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, etc.
The glaring red flag for picking the Vikings to win it all is the fact that their quarterback is Sam Darnold, who was coined as a draft bust prior to this season. But it’s not Darnold we should trust. It’s Kevin O’Connell. O’Connell is officially the best quarterback whisperer in the world and has designed a perfect scheme for the former third-overall pick who is 5th in passing yards and touchdowns and 4th in rating.
Throw this year’s version of Darnold into the mix with stellar weapons on offense and the aforementioned defense and coaching (not to mention they might have the loudest crowd in the league), and you’ve got yourself a contender.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are the hottest team in the NFL and also have one of the best rosters which automatically qualifies them for the top three. It’d be nice if I trusted their coach a little bit more, but perhaps Nick Sirianni is playing chess while the rest of the league is playing checkers by turning his players against each other to create media skepticism of the Eagles that is ultimately fueling them.
Philadelphia’s defense, which was their biggest concern coming into the year, has been lights out all season. They’ve allowed the fewest points and yards this season, are third in DVOA, and have elite playmakers at every position. Offensively, they have the winning formula—they run their opponents into the ground. They overtook the Ravens (who have been top three in rushing six years in a row) for the highest rushing yards per game thanks to a dominant season out of Saquon Barkley. If Barkley stays on his current pace, a mediocre passing game might be able to take the Eagles to the promised line (don’t tell that to A.J. Brown).
The Eagles’ final three games are against division opponents. If they win out, all they need to capture the 1st seed in the NFC is for the Lions to lose once. I think I’d be in the majority if I bet my money on the team that has won their last 13 games, playing at home, and is playing against less experienced competition.
2. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is the most complete team in the NFL. They’ve got the quarterback in Jordan Love, they have a top-five running back this season with Josh Jacobs, they’ve got a dynamic receiving core, a top tight end, a good offensive line, a dangerous front seven, a ball-hawking secondary, and they finally have a kicker after cutting Anders Carlson and picking up Brandon McManus. And they've got the coach too. Matt LaFleur is a flat-out mastermind and should be in the running for coach of the year.
Green Bay is 8-2 in their last ten games with the only losses coming against Detroit who as I’ve mentioned are being ravaged by injuries. As for the Vikings and the Eagles who Green Bay also lost too early in the season, both were one-and-done in their last playoff appearance. Green Bay, on the other hand, had the Niners on the ropes last season in the divisional round, and with LaFleur at the helm, are on the verge of breaking through with their sky-high ceiling.
I’m reiterating at this point, but the Packers are the most well-rounded team in the league. Their offensive DVOA is the best in the NFC and their defensive DVOA is 7th in the league. They’ve held their opponents under their season average in 10 out of 14 games this season. And Green Bay has only lost once on the road which is where they’ll be playing the majority of their playoff games.
At the end of the day, the NFL is run by its quarterbacks and Jordan Love is the best quarterback in his conference. The Packers will make it back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2011.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has proven that time and time again, they can find a way to get the job done while playing far from their best. That’s what happens when Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback. He might not look like the best at times, but when it matters most, he is.
Yes, I am fully aware that Mahomes might be sidelined with a high ankle sprain for the rest of the regular season and could be sore in the playoffs. Remember what happened last time Mahomes had a high ankle sprain late in the season? He rattled off three straight wins on adrenaline to win the Super Bowl. It doesn’t matter.
The playoffs are all about knowing how to win, and nobody knows how to win more than the Chiefs who have championship pedigree oozing out of them. Until I see the left tackle position cost them, Travis Kelce come up empty, and Mahomes turn the ball over in the playoffs, I have no reason to believe that anybody should be able to stop this 13-1 juggernaut that will only have to win two games on their home turf and one game in New Orleans.
They say that it’s not about how you start, it’s about how you finish. This list is not about record, how good a team is on one side of the ball, or how good they’ve looked through 15 weeks. It’s about what teams are yet to show us and how high their ceilings are. To me, it’s clear that the Chiefs and the Packers’ ceilings are in a different stratosphere than the rest of the league.
Bills > Vikings
Eagles > Packers