Scoring Has Reached A New Level
Did you know that Kelly Oubre averaged 20 points per game last year? This is the same Oubre who had averaged 15.0 and 15.4 PPG in the last two seasons, and shot 31.4% from three this season. Yet, somehow, in the 48 games that he played, Oubre put up 20.3 PPG. Being on the Hornets, the 4th worst team in the league last year with little to no direction, you’d think Oubre was the highest scorer on his team. Well, you thought wrong. LaMelo Ball averaged 23.3 PPG and Terry Rozier put on 21.1 PPG. Like Oubre, both were inefficient players in 2023, shooting at 41.1% and 41.5% from the field, respectively. And as if it wasn’t enough, in 2022, Miles Bridges, who was suspended last year, averaged 20.2 PPG. Despite Bridges’ rather random outburst in scoring, we will disregard him from this next point which will blow your mind.
Throughout the 77 year history of the NBA, there have only been 2 championship teams with three players who averaged over twenty points.
Yep. The greatest offense in NBA history is the only team that fit the criteria. And yet, a group of inefficient scorers on a 27-55 team had three 20 PPG scorers. Better yet, the Hornets weren’t the only ones. The Wizards, who won just 35 games last year, had three 20 PPG scorers in Bradley Beal (23.2), Kristaps Porzingis (23.2), and Kyle Kuzma (21.2). Even the Trail Blazers, who, along with the Wizards, could be favorites to be the league’s worst team next year had three 20 PPG scorers with Damian Lillard (32.2), Anfernee Simons (21.1), and Jerami Grant (20.5). In fact, here’s a list of every player who averaged at least 20 PPG in the 2022-2023 season.
This graphic shows players with a minimum of 56 games played. However, if any number of games made the cut, players such as Ball, Beal, Kawhi Leonard, and Zion Williamson would also be here.
Look at some of the names on this graphic. Bojan Bogdanovic? Jordan Clarkson? Keldon Johnson? Jordan Poole was criticized all season for his poor shot selection and inefficient play, and still averaged 20.4 PPG as the third option on offense for the Warriors. Paolo Banchero was talked about less than your average rookie of the year, and still quietly put up 20.0 PPG. It seems like just yesterday when Tyrese Maxey entered the league. Yet, he scored 20.3 PPG on a Philadelphia team with the reigning MVP, and one of the greatest scorers ever in James Harden.
All of this is to say that the amount of recent scoring is unprecedented. To be clear, it’s less about high scoring averages than it is about the depth of scorers in the league today. Joel Embiid’s 33.1 PPG was only 23rd all-time in PPG for a single-season. However, we haven’t seen the amount of high-level scorers..…well..…ever.
This graphic that shows the number of 24+ PPG scorers in 10 seasons across a 45 year span.
2021 and 2023 are very similar, but in 2021, only 31 players average over 20 PPG to the 45 in 2023.
As you can see, the depth previously mentioned has grown over time. But let’s not kid ourselves. Scoring numbers are also higher than ever. There’s a reason that the 2022-2023 season was the highest scoring season since 1969. Wrap your mind around this. Every top-20 scorer at their ranking in 2023 had a higher PPG than the player at the corresponding ranking in 2022. For example, Joel Embiid led the league in scoring in 2023 with 33.1 PPG, which was higher than his league leading average of 30.6 in 2022. Luka Doncic ranked second in the category in 2023 with 32.4 PPG which was higher than the 29.9 PPG that second-ranked Giannis Antetokounmpo scored in 2022. Jalen Brunson was the 20th ranked scorer this season with 24.0 PPG—more than 20th ranked Dejounte Murray in 2022 (21.1 PPG).
For better perspective, here’s 2023 versus every other year on the graph.
In 2023, the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 18th, 19th, and 20th ranked scorers were higher than all players at their respective rank in any year represented on this graph. In fact, as you can see, there is no rank in the top-20 where 2023 is not in the top-3 out of the ten years. The only year that comes close to 2023 was 2021, but in 2023, the depth was on par with 2021, and the highest scorers were putting up even bigger numbers.
A couple more facts related to the figures in this article:
In 1999, Karl Malone finished 3rd in scoring with 23.8 PPG. Jalen Brunson was 20th in scoring in 2023 with 24.0 PPG. Also in 1999, Shareef Abdur-Rahim was the 4th-ranked scorer. He finished his career as a 1x all-star.
In 2013, 105 players scored at least 10.0 PPG. That number was at 133 in 2023.
Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen combined for 49.8 PPG when the Bulls went 72-10 in the 1995-1996 season, and won the championship. In 2023, Dallas (59.4), Boston (56.7), Philadelphia (54.1), Portland (53.3), Milwaukee (50.4), and Cleveland (49.9) all had duos that scored more points than Jordan and Pippen. That’s six teams in one season who scored more than perhaps the greatest duo ever.
The meteoric rise of scoring in 2023 makes me wonder a lot of things. Will rules have to be made to help out defenses? Will records be easily shattered in a few decade? How will all time greats be remembered if offense continues to increase at a rapid rate? How long can we preach the motto “defense with championships?” Because it’s starting to look like offense will be ruling the league for many years to come.