Sorting out the Playoff Picture: What's At Stake in Week 18
Year after year, the NFL gives us thrilling finishes in the final week of the season. This year is no different. Despite the media pundits running through the entire playoff bracket and penciling in the teams in the championship games, not a single playoff matchup is set. This weekend is more crucial than any weekend we had all season, so it’s important you know what’s at stake.
Today, I’ll cover the playoff chances and scenarios surrounding every team and seed in each conference. Here it is.
AFC Playoff Picture
Clinched Positions
1st seed: At the top of the conference, the playoff picture is almost entirely set. The Chiefs locked up the number one seed on Christmas day with a resounding 29-10 victory over Pittsburgh. Kansas City is resting their best players in week 18 and will have a first-round bye for the fifth time in the Patrick Mahomes era.
2nd seed: The Buffalo Bills have also clinched their spot. At 13-3, Buffalo is two games back of Kansas City and two games ahead of any other team, meaning they’ll rest their starters this week against New England as they prepare to face the seventh seed in the Wild Card round.
4th seed: The only other team who has locked up their playoff position is the 9-7 Houston Texans. They find themselves in this position as a result of locking up the division in week 15 and now losing their last two games by a combined score of 58-21.
Still Up For Grabs
3rd Seed: Baltimore and Pittsburgh are battling for the title of AFC North champion—the only division champion that has not been decided. For Baltimore, it’s simple. They win and they’re in. And they shouldn’t have much trouble this week; they’re taking on the Cleveland Browns who are 3-13 and have been tanking for the last two weeks. Baltimore is an 18-point favorite in this game which is the largest point spread of the whole season.
Pittsburgh’s path is clear cut too. They need a win and a Baltimore loss to get the third seed. But winning alone will be a difficult task. The Steelers are hosting Cincinnati who are winners of four straight and have everything to play for in week 18. And despite a 10-6 record, Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point underdog this Sunday.
5th seed: The three teams in the running for the fifth seed are the Steelers, Chargers, and Ravens. Pittsburgh currently occupies the fifth seed and will clinch the fifth seed as long as they win and the Ravens win. Even if Pittsburgh loses to Cincinnati, they can still grab the fifth spot if the Chargers lose to the Raiders by virtue of their head-to-head record over LA.
The Chargers need a win and a Pittsburgh loss to jump into the fifth spot which isn’t out of the question considering that their week 18 opponent is 4-12. They go into the game as a 6-point favorite over the Raiders.
There is a scenario in which the Ravens end up as the fifth seed and it will happen if the math to getting the third seed goes the Steelers way. Translation: they would have to lose and the Steelers would have to win for the Ravens to end up in fifth.
The Chargers find themselves in a unique but favorable situation. They have the privilege of watching the Steelers play on Saturday night and can choose to play or rest their starters depending on whether or not the Steelers win.
6th seed: The sixth seed is a similar-looking race except it doesn’t include the Ravens who can only end up as #3 or #5. The Chargers sit in the sixth spot at the moment and will stay there as long as the Steelers beat the Bengals.
The only way the Steelers get the sixth seed is if they lose to the Bengals and the Chargers beat the Raiders—an entirely possible scenario. The sixth seed will likely play the Ravens in round one of the playoffs.
7th seed: The final playoff spot is where everything is up for grabs. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, if you’re a football fan, you’ve been following the Bengals’ furious comeback from 4-8 to 8-8 with a chance to get into the playoffs. However, even after four straight wins, the Bengals still don’t control their own destiny. They need a win over the Steelers, a Dolphins loss to the Jets, and a Broncos loss to the Chiefs who are resting starters.
For Miami, they don’t have to worry about the Bengals. Miami just needs a win and a Broncos loss. A win is hardly guaranteed though. For the fifth time this season, the Dolphins are starting Tyler Huntley, who they’ve only scored 14.3 points per game with all season.
As for Denver, they’ve lost two straight heartbreakers, but their 9-7 record ensures a playoff berth if they beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead. They can also make the playoffs with a loss as long as Miami and Cincinnati also lose but there is only a 22% that both of those teams fall on Sunday. Either way, the team that earns the seventh seed will travel to Buffalo for their Wild Card game.
NFC Playoff Picture
Clinched Positions
2nd seed: The Eagles are the only team in the NFC who are sure about their playoff position headed into week 18. They are only a game back of the Lions and Vikings, but one of them will win in week 18, meaning that the top seed is out of reach for Philly. They’re three games north of the third-seeded Rams, so they’ve decided to rest some of their top players as they prepare to take on the Giants in a meaningless game. One of those starters is Saquon Barkley, who is only 100 yards shy of Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record.
Still Up For Grabs
1st seed: In one of the most important regular season games of all time, the Lions will host the Vikings in a battle for the NFC North and the one seed in the NFC. The loser of this game would be the first 14-win wild card team ever, meaning they’d have to go on the road for the first weekend of the playoffs. This game is all or nothing.
3rd seed: The third seed in the conference will come down to the Rams and the Bucs. Currently, at 10-6, the Rams occupy the third spot. In order to give up the third seed, they’d need to lose to the Seahawks and the Bucs would have to beat the Saints.
With the way things are shaking out, the Bucs have a good chance at leaping the Rams. Sean McVay is resting his starters against Seattle and appears not to be concerned with the possibility of playing Detroit or Minnesota in round one. Tampa, on the other hand, has everything to play for. Because the NFC South is still up for grabs, the Bucs are playing everyone against the reeling Saints. Once again, all they need is to win and for the Rams to lose. LA needs a win or a Bucs loss.
4th seed: The Rams, Bucs, and Falcons are all in the running for the 4th seed. The Bucs and the Falcons are fighting for the NFC South—the other NFC division that has not been decided.
To win the NFC South, the Falcons need to beat the Panthers and need the Bucs to lose to the Saints. Atlanta can’t achieve anything higher than the fourth seed.
For the Bucs, they can win the division with a win against the Saints or a Falcons loss to the Panthers. As I’ve already touched upon, if Tampa Bay wins, they can get the third seed and the Rams can fall to the fourth seed. LA can avoid the four by winning. The chances of getting the fourth seed are as follows.
5th seed: The fifth seed will be occupied by the loser of Detroit vs Minnesota—odds you’re already familiar with.
6th seed: The difference between the sixth and seventh seeds is massive. The sixth seed likely gets to play the Rams who have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball this year and have one of the worst home-field advantages in the league. The seventh seed has to travel to bruising Philadelphia to face the 13-win Eagles.
The two teams fighting for the position are the Commanders and Packers. After the Packers lost to the Vikings last week, the Commanders overtook them in the standings. Now, Washington controls its own destiny. To secure the sixth seed, they just need to beat the Cowboys in Jerry World this Sunday. The Packers need a win over the Bears and a Commanders loss to avoid being the seventh seed for the second consecutive season.
7th seed: Every Wild Card team has already clinched a playoff berth, meaning nobody on the outside of the playoff picture has a chance to backdoor their way into the seventh seat. Thus, the race to avoid the seventh seed is just the sixth seed race in reverse.
All the talk around resting starters for the playoffs and divisions being clinched can create the illusion that week 18 doesn’t matter. Make no mistake—week 18 is the most important week of the regular season. 10 playoff seeds are still undecided, two playoff spots are up for grabs, and the most high-stakes regular season game in a long time will be held at Ford Field on Sunday Night. Grab your popcorn because it’s about to go down.
To be sure, my popcorn will not be burnt.