Super Bowl Deep Dive: Predictions, Explanations, and More
You’d think that a Super Bowl matchup between two 17-win wins with significant historical implications would get hyped up beyond creation, right? This has not been the case. The NBA trade deadline drowned out Super Bowl talks for five straight days, and now the only Super Bowl coverage I see are “Saquon Barkley please save us” edits and Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce going on a double date with Patrick and Brittany Mahomes (I’m going to lose my mind).
For a lot of people, the opening kickoff will be the first time they even think about this incredibly high-stakes Super Bowl game which is why Ben and I are going to get ahead of the curve and tell you who we’ve got tonight and why.
Here is the full preview for the ultimate showdown of the season.
Webb Constable
Chiefs and Eagles. The two teams that nobody wanted to see but will be glad they saw after what looks to be an all-time Super Bowl game. Whether you’d like to admit it or not, you knew that these were the best teams in their respective conferences going into the playoffs.
The Chiefs always find a way to win games by the skin of their teeth and no matter how many calls go their way or three-point games they win, nobody else belongs in the Super Bowl but them. As for the Eagles, they boast one of the best rosters in NFL history and are headlined by the marvelous Saquon Barkley. Though toppling the Chiefs is the sports equivalent of climbing Mount Everest, if anyone can do it, it’s Barkley and the Eagles.
Kansas City’s rush defense is statistically strong, but over time has cooled off from its hot start to the season. The playoffs have been a strong representation of this—they allowed 149 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per carry against Houston and 147 yards on 4.6 yards per carry versus Buffalo. Those figures were slightly above average for both Houston and Buffalo this season.
If the Eagles' rushing attack has an above-average game, the Chiefs might be doomed. In their nine best rushing games of the season, they are 8-1 and average 33.1 points per game. The only loss was against the Commanders—a game in which Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion in the first quarter. Individually, Barkley has been an absolute heater. He totaled three touchdowns and 118 rushing yards on just 15 carries last week against the Commanders and had 205 yards and two more scores on the Rams in the divisional round.
Philly’s only concerns with their rushing attack should be what will happen if Barkley can’t break off one of his patented long touchdown runs as well as the Chiefs' impressive record stopping the run in past Super Bowls. Last year against San Francisco in the big game, the Chiefs held Christian McCaffrey to just 80 yards on 3.6 yards per run. Remember how people were talking about McCaffrey before that game? That’s how they’re talking about Barkley. In 2023, when the Chiefs played the Eagles in round one of this Super Bowl rematch, the KC held the Eagles’ running backs to merely 45 yards on 17 carries.
The bottom line is that Philly absolutely needs their running game to prosper tonight for two reasons.
The first is Jalen Hurts. Make no mistake about it—the Eagles don’t need Hurts to pass for 300 yards and three touchdowns as long as Barkley is pounding the rock. It’s when Barkley can’t generate efficient offense on his own that the Eagles get in trouble. When Hurts throws over 30 times, the Eagles are only 3-2 and average 22.1 PPG—a shadow of their overall 28.4 average. Last week was the one exception to the trend; Hurts had 28 passing attempts and the Eagles scored 55 points. But Washington’s defense was a joke and their offense gave Philly multiple short fields with costly turnovers.
The second reason the Eagles need a signature Barkley game is because they can’t afford to start slow. The Chiefs are masters of keeping a lead. In the last three seasons, they are 35-4 when they enter the fourth quarter with a lead. So, it’s not impossible to come back on them, but you’re really testing your luck if you trail after three.
Let’s transition to the other matchup which is the Chiefs' inevitable offense against the Eagles' suffocating defense. This side of the game needs less of an explanation because it seems that no matter who the Chiefs play in the playoffs, they score anywhere from 25-to-30 points, but if the Eagles’ defense can make enough plays, I believe they can finally end the Chiefs’ run.
The key for the Eagles is forcing a turnover out of Patrick Mahomes. It’s no coincidence that the last time Mahomes threw an interception was the last time he lost a game (30-21 defeat against Buffalo). In the 2023 regular season, the Chiefs were just 5-6 when Mahomes threw at least one pick. Here’s the most telling stat of them all: In the last five years, the Chiefs are 45-2 when Mahomes doesn’t throw an interception. That’s absurd.
If there’s any defense that can break that trend, it’s Philadelphia’s. Even if they are unable to force a turnover, which is unlikely given their league-leading 1.8 takeaways per game, they have enough tools to make the Chiefs’ offense uncomfortable. They lead the NFL in defensive DVOA and are blowing the rest of the league out of the water in defensive EPA. Since week four, the Eagles defense hadn’t allowed over 23 points to anybody aside from the Commanders in week 16, but they forced three turnovers against those same Commies in the NFC championship game.
The Chiefs lack a strong deep threat. They are 27th in plays of 20+ yards (42) and 28th in plays of 40+ yards (4). For reference, The Eagles are third in 40+ yard plays (12). Most of their offense will come through short completions to receivers and Travis Kelce, medium gains from Isiah Pacheco and the timely, backbreaking Patrick Mahomes scrambles that always seem to be the reason the Chiefs pull out the down-to-the-wire games. However, a strong Eagles front line should stunt the Chiefs' short game.
Jalen Carter, Milton Williams, Jordan Davis, Nolan Smith, Zack Baun, Josh Sweat, and Oren Burks represent the best front seven in football. They’re averaging 3.5 sacks per game in their last four and have been terrific at stopping the run. In the NFC championship game, they held Washington to 51 total rushing yards and they are top-10 in rushing defense in total yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns. Against a shaky Chiefs offensive line, the Eagles’ front four (Carter in particular) might be able to turn the tides of this game.
I’ve been the number one supporter of the “never bet against Patrick Mahomes” argument for years. I’ve picked them to win every game this postseason despite many people choosing the Texans to pull off the upset or for the Bills to finally steal KC’s crown. It seems that in this game, plenty of fans are finally catching onto the fact that Mahomes and the Chiefs are flawless in the playoffs and are picking the Chiefs to win tonight. BUT I'M NOT ONE OF THEM. Give me the Eagles 34-20.
Final Prediction: Eagles 34-20
Ben Paradis
While much of America may groan at the prospect of two of the most polarizing teams and fanbases clashing on the sport’s biggest stage yet again, this is the most electrifying Super Bowl matchup in years. Two seasons ago, in their first meeting, the Chiefs edged out the Eagles in an instant classic, winning 38-35. But this is a new season, and both teams have evolved dramatically. The Eagles, now powered by Saquon Barkley, have reloaded, while the Chiefs enter with all the pressure in the world on their shoulders. This has all the makings of an all-time classic. Let’s break down who has the edge in Super Bowl 59.
The Eagles might just have the most complete roster in football. They boast the league’s best defense, best offensive line, best running back, and elite wide receivers. But among all their strengths, one stands above the rest—their dominant run game. Barkley is in the midst of one of the greatest running back seasons of all time, and with a win on Sunday, he would cement his place in history. In the playoffs, he’s averaging just under seven yards per carry, with at least 118 yards and two touchdowns in each of his last two games. He’s on an absolutely torrid pace, and the Chiefs don’t look equipped to stop him.
Kansas City built a reputation as one of the league’s best run defenses in the regular season, but that title has slipped in the playoffs. In the Divisional Round, Joe Mixon gashed them for 88 yards and a touchdown. In the AFC Championship, Buffalo ran wild for 150 yards, with James Cook accounting for 85 yards and two scores. Over their last six games, the Chiefs have allowed 147 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry. And worst of all? They haven't faced anything close to the force of nature that is Barkley. Even if they slow him down, Jalen Hurts remains one of the most dangerous running quarterbacks in football. Kansas City is in for a long night trying to contain this ground attack.
Yet, despite their run-heavy identity, the Eagles will have to lean on their passing game at some point—and that’s where things get dicey. Their offensive line is the best in the NFL, but the Chiefs’ pass rush is no joke. Kansas City has consistently pressured opposing quarterbacks in big moments—just look at the final moments of the AFC Championship game, when they took down Josh Allen in mere seconds on the final play. Hurts, meanwhile, has struggled under pressure. In his last Super Bowl against the Chiefs, he averaged 9.3 yards per attempt against standard coverage but just 6.1 when blitzed. Kansas City blitzed him on 40% of his dropbacks. Even in these playoffs, Hurts’ numbers against pressure—especially against the Rams—have been underwhelming. The formula is clear for Kansas City, and they have the personnel to execute it.
For all the hype around the Chiefs' defense, the Eagles have the edge on that side of the ball. Their unit is young, fast, and versatile, with the ability to cover the entire field against Mahomes. A major talking point this week has been Mahomes’ 8-0 record against Vic Fangio-led defenses, but let’s be real—that stat is misleading. Fangio spent years coaching a bad Broncos team that simply didn’t have the roster to compete. Even still, his defenses have held Mahomes to just 22 points per game, a number any coordinator would take. If there’s been any defensive system that has consistently slowed Mahomes, it’s Fangio’s.
One of the biggest chess matches in this game will be the turnover battle. The Eagles have forced 10 turnovers in the playoffs so far, while the Chiefs, despite taking care of the ball all year, finally coughed one up in the AFC Championship—their first turnover since Week 11. In their last Super Bowl meeting, the game swung on an untimely Hurts fumble that sealed Philadelphia’s fate. Given recent trends, the Eagles have the edge here.
Another key factor? Time of possession. The Chiefs have lost the time-of-possession battle by four minutes or more just twice all season. They lost both games. Meanwhile, the Eagles lead the NFL in average time of possession, thanks to their relentless ground attack and ball security. If they control the clock, they control the game.
At this point, nearly every stat and storyline suggests the Eagles should win. They have the better roster, the superior running game, and a defense capable of making Mahomes work. But here’s the thing—it doesn’t matter. Because at the end of the day, the Super Bowl comes down to the most important position in sports: quarterback. And with the season on the line, anyone with a brain would pick Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts.
Time and time again, Mahomes has proven that when his back is against the wall, he finds a way. Hurts? He’s a good quarterback, and a great leader—but he’s rarely the reason his team wins. From the outside looking in, he just doesn’t have the mental edge present in the champions throughout all sports. Besides, he is facing the greatest quarterback of this generation, and the second best to ever grace a football field. For every Michael Jordan, there is a Karl Malone.
So yes, all the numbers, trends, and logic might point to Philadelphia. But when it’s all said and done, the Chiefs are inevitable with Mahomes on their side. With the weight of the world on their shoulders, the Kansas City Chiefs will be the first team to ever win three straight Super Bowls.