Super Wild Card Weekend Preview (Saturday Edition): Panel Picks and Everything You Need to Know
The time has come. The mediocrity of the NFL is gone—aside from a one or two teams (I’m talking about you, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay). We are down to the final 14 teams, and for the next month, they will fight, round by round, for the illusive Lombardi trophy.
First on the schedule: Super Wild Card Weekend. Three seasons ago, the NFL instated the 7th seed in both conferences lifting the number of wild card games from four to six. Though I personally appreicate having an extra game on Sunday and a Monday Night game, others have complained about the addition of the 7 seed, arguing that it creates an unwatchable mismatch between them and the 2nd seeded teams.
It’s a fair argument—of the six 2 vs 7 games in NFL history, there have been numerous duds.
2020: New Orleans defeated Chicago, who were quarterbacked by Mitch Trubisky, 21-9 in a game where the 8-8 Bears produced nothing on offense.
2021: The Steelers, who were 24th in DVOA and 25th in PPG were pounded 42-21 by the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes diced apart the Steelers secondary with 404 yards and five touchdowns in a game that was over after 30 minutes.
2022: Though this 34-31 Bills win was an entertaining game by the end, any team with Skylar Thompson as their quarterback is at a severe disadvantage, and it showed with his 40% completion and two interceptions.
You can make an argument that the 7th seeded Steelers against the Bills will another one of these forgettable games. I disagree. The average win differential between the 2 and 7 seeds in those games is 3.5. There is only a one win gap between 11-6 Buffalo and 10-7 Pittsburgh. Buffalo has also been notorious this season for playing down to their competition, and only won by three points in each of the two wild card games that they played as the two seed. And you can never count out Mike Tomlin in December or January either.
On the other side, we’ve been treated to the best 2 vs 7 game ever—Cowboys vs Packers features a matchup between two great offenses, a revenge game for Mike McCarthy, and a classic rivalry, along with the extra fun that the chance of the Cowboys getting upset offers.
These intriguing 2 vs 7 matchups are just the appetizers for the six course meal that will take place this long weekend.
On Saturday afternoon, we will be treated to Texans vs Browns, and the nightcap is a battle of heavyweights: Chiefs vs Dolphins. To close out Sunday, Matthew Stafford and the surprising Rams will travel to Detroit, and then Tampa Bay will look to upset the sinking Eagles on Monday Night.
Without further introduction, let’s take a closer look at each game and pick the winners.
Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns
One could call it the Deshaun Watson bowl, but there’s a new sheriff in town for the Cleveland Browns who are entering the playoffs as the 5 seed on their magic carpet ride. Joe Flacco has taken the keys to the offense and unlocked a new level of success.
Since the former Super Bowl MVP took over the reigns, the Browns offense has upped the points per game from 19.4 (24th) to 28.6 (4th), their passing rating has leapt from 66.1 (51st) to 90.2 (19th), and their passing yards per game have skyrocketed from 182.3 (26th) to 312 (1st). In fact, in all games without Flacco, the highest passing yards output was 263 (Deshaun Watson vs Tennessee). In Flacco’s five games as the quarterback, he went over that total four times including four 300+ yard games.
Flacco has also helped unlock several important weapons in the offense. David Njoku did not have a game with over 77 yards through 12 games, but in his last four games, he has tallied 91, 104, 44, and 134 yard games. Though Flacco has only been the QB in 31.3% of Njoku’s appearances this season, 44.2% of his yards have come with Flacco. The same goes for Cleveland’s WR1, Amari Cooper, whose numbers are 26.7% and 38.8% in those respective categories—much of it due to his 265-yard masterpiece against Houston in week 16.
If the Browns have had an achilles heel since Flacco joined the team, it has been turnovers. You may have noticed that Flacco’s 19th ranked QBR is not the most impressive of figures, and it’s because he’s thrown eight interceptions. Luckily for Flacco, Houston’s defense has been middle of the pack in forcing turnovers. Their 17th in turnovers and 16th interceptions, so Flacco shouldn’t have more trouble than usual. Elsewhere on that side of the ball, the Texans have brought the heat to opposing quarterbacks. Jonathan Greenard has been a revelation for Houston, totaling a career-high 12.5 sacks in his fourth season after just 1.5 last year. Among all 11 players with at least 12.0 sacks, Greenard leads with 8.32 yards per sack. He hasn’t been alone though. 3rd overall pick Will Anderson has seven sacks of his own and ranks third in the NFL in pass-rush win rate—an unbelievable mark for a rookie. Sheldon Rankings and Maliek Collins chipped in another eight sacks, and Jerry Hughes was incredibly disruptive against Indianapolis in week 18, generating a game-leading 4.09 yards of distance between him and the quarterback.
All in all, Houston’s defense is 11th in PPG and ranked 6th in rush defense, so Jerome Ford will need to work some magic in order to have a memorable first playoff start. However, their pass defense in 23rd. Derek Stingley Jr. has been hot lately, but will need to rally the secondary to limit Flacco and the Cleveland offense.
Fortunately for Cleveland, their offensive line has held up for Flacco as it has all season. They have allowed fewer sacks, hurries, and knockdowns than the average offensive line, and finished the season as the 7th best offensive line per Pro Football Network. Their other advantage has been health—Geron Christian is their only starter that has missed time this year, and he’s been active for the last nine weeks, so chemistry is clicking up front.
However, though the offense is humming for the Browns, their historic defense is their hallmark. In a season in which they have stifled offenses, the opposing quarterback has been their main target.
#1 in opponent completion percentage
#1 in opponent passing yards per game
#2 in opponent passer rating
#2 in opponent yards per attempt
#6 in sacks
#7 in opponent TD to INT ratio
Now, here’s what is looks like when those numbers are put into form.
Joe Burrow: 14-31, 82 yards
Ryan Tannehill: 13-25, 104 yards
Brock Purdy: 12-27, 125 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Clayton Tune: 11-20, 58 yards, 2 INT
Lamar Jackson: 13-23, 223 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
Kenny Pickett: 15-28, 106 yards
Justin Fields: 19-40, 166, 1 TD, 2 INT
Though the numbers will show that they’ve worn down a bit over the course of their season, their 200 yards allowed per game through 5 games was an NFL record. And it’s not all about the stat sheet, anyway. As we’ve seen from a guy in Pittsburgh throughout the last three years, it can pay to have a game changing player on the defensive line, which is exactly what Cleveland has in DPOY candidate Myles Garrett. Garrett has been a true game wrecker this season, and has single handedly propelled the Browns to wins with the most memorable being their 39-38 win over the Colts in which Garrett had two sacks, two forced fumbles, and a blocked field goal, and a 27-3 victory over Tennessee where he totaled 3.5 sacks along with a forced fumble The emergence of Za’Darius Smith on the other side of the line has taken a tad more attention off Garrett, allowing him to operate more freely which helped him log 14.0 sacks on the season.
While Cleveland’s defense was nothing short of fantastic in 2023, they’re dealing with a different beast at quarterback this Saturday in C.J. Stroud, who has reeked havoc all over the AFC in his rookie season. Stroud has been one of the best rookie quarterbacks in NFL history and has been the conductor of the Texans train that was ranked 31st in my week 1 power rankings, but finished 10-7 against all odds. He is averaging 273.9 yards per game through the air this season which not only is the second highest output by a rookie in NFL history behind Justin Herbert, but is the highest in the league this season of all QBs to start at least nine games. He’s 5th in passer rating and 1st in TD to INT ratio, and has done a good chunk of his work without his favorite target, Tank Dell, who was ruled out for the season after fracturing his fibula in week 12.
Most importantly, Stroud possesses the clutch gene that so many young quarterbacks fail to develop in their first few years in the league. In back to back games, Stroud led game-winning drives against Tampa Bay, a touchdown drive that lasted 40 seconds, and the red-hot Bengals on the road. Stroud also took over in a win and in game agains the Colts in week 18, kicking things off with a 75-yard touchdown bomb to Collins, creating no doubt that he is built for the moment.
Dell was a key part of a skill group that Pro Football Network had ranked 31st in the league prior to the season. WR1, Nico Collins, has helped bust that myth with a 1,297 yard season in just 15 games. Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown were both signed from their in-state rivals, the Cowboys, and have had better seasons than their last ones in Dallas. Much of Houston’s chances this weekend will come down to the running game. When they rush for over 100 yards, the Texans are 6-1, but were 4-6 when they go under. In wins, they average 110.5 rushing yards per game, and just 77.4 in losses. They’re going to need a big day from Devin Singletary—their leader rusher—especially against the Browns, who’s rush defense can be suffocating at its best.
One last thing to note about this game: Browns beat Texans 36-22 in week 16. Though Houston was starting Case Keenum, I see few scenarios where they with while giving up 36 points. The defense will have to buckle down in order to give their rookie star a chance.
That’s the extra long layout of what I believe to be the most intriguing matchup of Super Wild Card weekend. Now, here are the picks.
Panel Picks
This week, games count for double. Wins are 2-0, losses are 0-2, and locks count for three. The less than -7 spread lock rule still applies, but no upsets are required. One more twist: we will predict the score of the games. One score picked correctly is worth one win, and the whole game score is worth two wins.
Ray: Texans beat Browns 35-31
The Browns have been rolling this season behind one of my least favorite players growing up in Joe Flacco. However, I think the energy in Houston is going be unbelievable and they will sneak away with the win.
Josh: Browns beat Texans 37-24
Stroud has hot start but scores only a field goal in the second half. Flacco has a consistent game, and turns back the clock to give the Browns the win.
George: Browns beat Texans 23-14
The Browns defense eeks out the Texans in a game where CJ Stroud and Flacco are both solid but not as magical as either are made to be. 23-14
Webb: Browns beat Texans 30-24
The inexperienced Texans offense get off to a slow start, and their subpar secondary is unable to slow down Joe Flacco, Amari Cooper, and David Bell in the deep passing game.
Rahul: Browns beat Texans 31-17
Browns pass defense is no joke and they will lock up Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. MIP “January Joe” Flacco will light up the Texans with Cooper and Njoku all fully healthy. Houston will try to slow the game down with Singletary, but Myles Garrett will be all over the run game.. Comfortable win for Cleveland.
Jackson: Browns beat Texans 37-10
Joe Flacco will spur a strong offensive showing and will throw for 350+ yards in a blowout win over the Texans.
Theo: Browns beat Texans 21-14
Flacco will show his years of experience under pressure as he leads the Browns to a narrow victory over the Texans. Despite their chemistry, the Texans’ younger offensive stars will choke in key situations as their limited time on the big stage becomes evident. The strong Browns defense will gain momentum and Stroud will fold under the pressure. I predict a relatively potent offensive first half with key turnovers occurring later in the game.
Game Details
Day and time: Saturday, 4:30 ET
Where to watch: NBC and Peacock
Spread: Cleveland (-2)
Weather: N/A (in a dome)
Winner is most likely to play Baltimore.
This is a battle of two teams peaking at the right time with all three phases of their games playing well at the moment.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have enjoyed splashing around in the comforts of their own warm Florida home this year, but things are about to get very chilly for them, when they head to play in 0° weather in Kansas City this Saturday night. The unthawed Arrowhead turf is nothing new to the defending Super Bowl champions—they’ve hosted a league-high 10 playoff games in the last five seasons, and are 9-2 in such games while scoring 30.5 PPG.
However, these are not your Grandma’s Chiefs. The 2023 version of the Chiefs is unrecognizable compared to years past. What was once a potent, chunk play offense has turned into a dud. Patrick Mahomes, arguably the greatest quarterback to ever live, has the second fewest air yards per attempt of any quarterback because his receivers pose no deep threat.
As a result, Mahomes’ aggressiveness rating, measured by Next Gen Stats has taken a considerable dip and is now the lowest of any quarterback in the NFL. Think about that. Mahomes—one of the two most talented quarterbacks in the league is forced to check the ball down more than any other quarterback in the league. As frustrating as it must be for the two-time Super Bowl MVP, we’ve seen Marquez Valdes-Scantling drop an absolute dime from Mahomes that won have won the Chiefs the game against the Eagles who were 8-1 at the time, Ka’Darius Toney has dropped more important passes than I can count on two hands. These guys are easy targets, but it’s not just them. Rashee Rice, the Chiefs’ WR1, and Travis Kelce are 10th and 11th in the league in drops, respectively. All in all, Kansas City’s pass catchers lead the league with 44 dropped passes this season.
The lack of production from Kansas City’s receiving core has resulted in a career-low 21.8 PPG for Patrick Mahomes, and just 17.5 PPG in their last 11 games where they’ve gone 5-6. However, we shouldn’t act like this offense isn’t capable of making a Super Bowl run. After all, Mahomes dragged this offense plus Juju-Smith Schuster to a Lombardi last February on one ankle. They’ve still got the ability to move the chains as they showed two weeks ago when the scored on six straight possessions against Cincinnati. When the offense is cooking, it’s a steady diet of Rice and Kelce. Rice’s magic number is 57—when he totals over 57 receiving yards, KC is 7-2. Meanwhile, Kelce, who had a forgettable December, has helped the Chiefs get to a 5-2 record when he has at least 80 yards, and a 4-1 record when he scores a touchdown. Force feeding those guys will be key.
Kansas City’s x-factor lies in the running game with second-year up-and-comer, Isiah Pacheco, who runs as if he hates the turf. Pacheco has 1,279 all-purpose yards this season on a healthy 4.6 yards per carry. He also has nine touchdowns and only fumbled once all season. Good news for the Chiefs: Pacheco runs especially well in the cold—he averages 5.6 yards per carry in temperatures below 40° and isn’t afraid of contact in the trenches.
This is exactly how the Dolphins do not want to play. After losing pro-bowl caliber linebackers, Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, for the season, Emmanuel Ogbah is their only linebacker with over 2 sacks. Phillips had 6.5 sacks through 8 games, and Chubb logged 11 before getting hurt in week 17, and outside of Ogbah, the other 8 LB’s have a combined 2.5 sacks all season. Pacheco went for 130 yards on 18 carries against a weak Bengals’ run defense. He’s already had 9 games with at least 15 carries this season, and I would project anywhere between 21 and 25 carries against Miami, especially if KC takes an early lead. It should be noted that Clyde Edwards is back after a minor injury and presents a solid receiving threat for the Chiefs out of the backfield.
So, how can Miami win this game? They need to be opportunistic on defense. The Chiefs are 5-0 when Mahomes doesn’t throw an interception, and just 6-6 when he does. On the flip side, turnovers haven’t played much of a pattern for Miami, but they have lost some big games with crucial turnovers (just look at their final drive in week 18 against Buffalo).
Of course, we all know that as good as their defense can be, Miami has built their identity on offense. To win on Sunday, the’ll have to stray away from their electric, deep-ball-centric style to a more physical approach. After all, they’re 8-3 when they outrush their opponents, and only 3-3 when they don’t. Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane was capable of carrying the load—one scored 20 touchdowns in the regular season, and the other averaged an astonishing 7.8 yards per carry. Mostert, who is questionable for Saturday night, and Achane will have their hands full against a rogue Chiefs defense. The Chiefs have only allowed one team have a 100-yard rushing game agains them this season, and it was the Raiders twice with Josh Jacobs and Zymir White.
But as much as Miami will need to pound the ground on Kansas City, anytime Mike McDaniel is on the sidelines, the game will look a little bit like a track meet. Tyreek Hill has been one of the best players in the NFL since he took his talents to South Beach, and can take single coverage and run a simple go route for a touchdown whenever he wants. Hill put up an all-time great receiving season with a career high 1,799 receiving yards (the 7th best of all time), and 13 scores. His 11 receptions of at least 35 yards slate him as the ultimate deep threat in NFL and his 15.1 yards per catch is 19th among all receivers this season. Hill, who is otherwise known as the “The Cheetah,” will need to give the Chiefs’ cornerbacks hell this week to give Miami a chance, and he can do so with his absurd speed. He’s recorded three of the top nine fastest speeds this season, but he has company in De’Von Achane who is in the top ten twice. Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle have also hit 20+ MPH this season.
Other formulas of victory for the Dolphins: Dominate the time of possession, and deal the Chiefs with bad field position to start drives In their last game with starters, the Chiefs had six straight drives that ended in Harrison Butker field goals, so if the Dolphins can pin them deep, those field goals might become punts.
We all know what the Dolphins are capable of at their peak. Heck, they dropped a 70-burger on the Broncos in week 3. But the offense Miami is fielding this week is different from the start of the season. They begun the 2023 campaign averaging 37.2 points in their first six games, but since then, that number has shrunk to 24.8, and just 18.3 in the last three weeks. Even worse, Jaylen Waddle is questionable for this game. You may say, “well as long as they have Tyreek, they’ll be fine, right?” Wrong. He’s been inactive for the last two games, and without him, the Dolphins are 0-2 and have scored their lowest and third lowest point totals of the season, as well as their second lowest yardage output of their season against the Bills.
Tua Tagovailoa, who was top-five in yards, touchdowns, and QBR in 2023 will have to bring his A+ game, and that starts by cleaning up the turnovers. Miami is 5-2 and averages 35.7 PPG when Tagovailoa doesn’t throw a pick and 6-4 with 22.4 PPG when he does. Fortunately for the Samoan, the Chiefs only have eight interceptions all season which is tied for second to last in the NFL. That doesn’t mean that offense will come easy, though, as the Chiefs have one of the top pass defenses in the league.
The final elephant in the room is that the Dolphins struggle in big games on the road. They are 0-4 against winning teams on the road this season, and in what is Tagovailoa’s first playoff game compared to Mahomes’ 15th, experience could be a large factor. Final tidbit: The Dolphins have lost 10 games in a row in temperatures of less than 40°.
Panel Picks
Ray: Chiefs beat Dolphins 23-10
McDaniels is a hall of fame crust lord and him and his goons are not gonna be able to handle the cold. Tua’s hands are going to freeze off and the pass game will not be there.
Josh: Chiefs beat Dolphins 36-30
The game stays close as the Dolphins establish themselves out of the gate. However, in cruch time, Mahomes takes over and does enough to get his Chiefs a victory.
George: Chiefs beat Dolphins 30-24
Miami’s struggles carry on and the Chiefs defense shines. Tua disappoints and Mahomes manages the game well.
Webb: Chiefs beat Dolphins 21-13
Like the Munich game, the Chiefs offense gets off to a quick start behind Isiah Pacheco. Mahomes will play more of a game manager role, but it will be enough as Tua and Tyreek never quite get comfortable against the Chiefs stifling defense.
Rahul: Chiefs beat Dolphins 20-16
The dolphins don’t know how to beat winning teams, the weather will be terrible this game, the dolphins pass defense stinks and the chiefs offense is leaky. I lean on experience and home field advantage to help the chiefs eke out a victory over the Dolphins, mainly behind Pacheco running the rock and Rice getting the majority of targets. Wild Prediction: Kadarius Toney gets a TD.
Jackson: Chiefs beat Dolphins 16-13
Patrick Mahomes throws for under 200 yards in a run-based game. Chiefs win in a tight one by a field goal.
Theo: Chiefs beat Dolphins 24-20
The Dolphins’ playoff losing spell will continue one more year as Tua will be stopped when it matters most by the Chiefs pass rush. I predict the Dolphins to come out strong, much to Swifties’ despair, only for the Chiefs to regroup in the locker room and put up a comeback topped off by a Mahomes-lead explosive final drive to seal the victory. The cold weather will surely have an impact, likely more on the Dolphins than the Chiefs, although it’s not like Kadarius Toney will be catching balls anyway.
Game Details
Day and time: Saturday, 8:00 ET
Where to watch: Peacock
Spread: Kansas City (-4.5)
Weather: 0°, 17 MPH wind
Winner is most likely to play Buffalo.
This game is a must watch (unless you don’t have Peacock), but might resemble the Patriots vs Bills game when Mac Jones threw three passes. The weather will be a significant factor, making it a must-watch win or go home game.
Thanks for reading, and be sure to stay tuned for game previews over the next few days.