The NFC: The Island of Misfit Quarterbacks
Three years ago, Jared Goff was lost. He had no idea why the tides turned against him in Los Angeles, and although he said the inclination to move on after he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford was mutual, Goff was salty about the situation. After reviving the Rams, taking them to a Super Bowl, playing under Sean McVay—a young football genius—and living in the Hollywood lights, Goff would have to restart his career under a first time head coach in the Motor City for a team that was 14-33-1 in their last three seasons. At the start of the 2021 season, Goff was just an uninspiring, rental quarterback, and who knows what would have happened to him after that. Detroit started the season 0-10-1 and looked completely hopeless.
It was around this time that Baker Mayfield’s time in Cleveland was all but expired. He had suffered a shoulder injury in week 2, missed a few games as a result, and just a year after the Browns went 11-5, they were 6-6 with Mayfield playing the worst football of his career. When the season concluded, the former first overall pick was left out to dry and the Browns would trade for their quarterback of the future—Deshaun Watson. Mayfield was signed to a one year deal in Carolina the next year, but was released into free agency after a 1-6 start, making his future appear very grim.
As Mayfield was fighting for a job, Jordan Love was growing restless in Green Bay When the Packers drafted him out of Utah State with the 26th pick in the 2021 draft, he was a project who would hopefully spend several years living and learning from Aaron Rodgers. Though Love gained knowledge from one of the greats, he only started one game in his first two seasons—partially because Rodgers won back-to-back MVP awards in those years. Love thought his time had come after the Packers shocking 13-10 loss to the 49ers in the divisional round and rumors surrounding Rodgers’ departure, but in the offseason, Rodgers signed a 3 year / $150.8 million deal, signaling that Love wouldn’t see the field for a few more years. Love said in retrospect, “I’ll admit, I think the hardest time was when he re-signed the contract last year. It was kind of like, OK, well, where do we go from here? What do I do?”
Brock Purdy, who was selected as the 262nd and last pick in the 2022 draft, was in a similar situation. He was third on the QB depth chart behind Trey Lance, who was viewed as the franchise cornerstone, and Jimmy Garoppolo, who took the 49ers to a Super Bowl in 2020. Not a soul knew Purdy’s name except any Iowa State faithful and a few die hard Niners fans, so the odds were stacked against him. No Mr. Irrelevant had reach the Pro Bowl in the last thirty years, and Purdy didn’t appear to be any different.
Elsewhere in the NFC, other quarterbacks were getting all the shine. Jalen Hurts became the highest paid quarterback in the NFL after an incredible 14-3 season which ended with a 38-35 loss in the Super Bowl. Dak Prescott, although he led the league picks in 2022, was being given another chance with expectation that he would bounce back into All-Pro form. Kirk Cousins was all of sudden universally accepted as a top 10 quarterback who could lead his Vikings on a deep playoff run. And of all people, Daniel Jones was paid a 4 year / $160M deal last offseason. It seemed like we were watching a new band of quarterbacks take over.
Though no one believed they’d ever sniff the success that they’ve achieved, the Lions made the playoffs with Goff after a 12-5 season. Last week, they defeated the Rams 24-23 in their own building to move onto their first divisional playoff game in 32 years. Goff played a big role in their success, playing like a top-10 QB all season. He was 7th in completion percentage and passer rating, 2nd in yards, and 4th in touchdowns.
Jordan Love, who was an afterthought after a disappointing start to this season, exploded onto the scene and has taken the Packers farther than Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers did in their first seasons as the starter. Since week 11, Love is 7-2 with 21 touchdowns and one interception and he just diced apart a Cowboys defense that has been top-10 in most categories all year. One could argue he’s been a top-5 quarterback this year, and absolutely appears to be the future up in Wisconsin.
Purdy nearly shocked the world in his rookie season before going down with an injury against the Eagles in the NFC Championship game, but has bounced back into MVP form, and has had the best statistical season for a 49ers quarterback in history. Yes, better than Joe Montana. He’s the league leader in EPA per play, QBR, yards per attempt, and top 5 in touchdowns, completion percentage, and passing yards. For a guy that was a complete stranger 14 months ago, I’d say Purdy is doing pretty well.
And finally, there is Baker Mayfield who may have the best story of all. After getting kicked to the curb by the Panthers, he took some time off before getting signed by the Rams for the final five weeks of the 2022 season. With no future in LA, Mayfield had to sign a 1 year / $4M deal with Tampa Bay, who were projected to finish last place in the moribund NFC South, and spend the summer competing with Kyle Trask for the starting quarterback spot. 18 weeks and a dominant Wild Card win over the Eagles later, Mayfield is a lock to get paid and stick around for years to come. He has completely revived his career, playing like a top-12 quarterback all year. He did what Tom Brady couldn’t do in his final year—lead the Bucs to the playoffs.
I’m not the only person who didn’t expect this bizarre arrangement of quarterbacks to survive to the final four in the NFC. Nick Shook writes the QB Index for NFL.com every week, and at the start of the season, none of these four guys were top 4 in the NFC, or even close to the top 10 overall.
Even NFL executives didn’t recognize the potential in these guys. Here a graph of the 16 NFC starting quarterback’s salaries from 2023.
The guys in green went a combined 42-25 this season despite being 8th, 10th, 13th, and 16th in NFC QB salary. Mayfield wasn’t even viewed as a starting caliber player before the season started—his salary ranks 38th of all quarterbacks. And the man who led the MVP race through 15 weeks is 89th in QB salary.
Incredibly, the combined 2023 salary for Goff, Love, Mayfield, and Purdy is less than the salaries of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts. Of those four, only Jackson is still in the playoffs.
Perhaps Tom Brady was right. Maybe there is a lot of mediocrity at the QB position in today’s NFL, and that’s why Goff, Mayfield, Love, and Purdy are the last men standing in the NFC. But maybe it’s no coincidence that the guys who weren’t given respect, and aren’t being paid the big bucks are winning. Very often, it’s the players that have nothing to lose, and are playing pressure-free, hungry football that excel the most. These guys are playing with house money, and are motivated by nothing but the Lombardi—something that they could have never dreamed of a few seasons ago.
Three years ago, Jared Goff was lost after being hung out to dry by the Rams. Before his revenge game against the Rams last week, Goff was asked if he has still has a chip on his shoulder because of the trade. "Of course," Goff told ESPN. "I think it'll never leave me, and I think that's a good thing."