The Second Coming of Nikola Jokic Has Arrived

Underappreciated Player #1

At one point in his childhood, Alperen Şengün’s parents tried to force him to be a swimmer. He hardly had time to practice basketball during the week due to a vigorous swimming schedule and other practical issues.

But Şengün never gave up on basketball. And it was the right choice.

Born in 2002 in Giresun, Turkey, Şengün possessed the physical traits to be great. It wasn’t until 2014 when the junior Bandırma Basketbol İhtisas Kulübü team—a popular club in Turkey—head coach, Ahmet Gürgen, identified Şengün at a basketball tournament and recruited Şengün to come to play with him in Bandırma, causing Şengün to move cities. From the jump at Bandırma, Şengün was dominating, putting up MVP-caliber numbers, and eventually winning the prestigious award in 2017 as well as the championship. Şengün made a transition to the second division in the Turkish League and averaged an impressive 10.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.2 assists. He impressed so much that he transferred to Teksüt Bandırma, a division one team, scoring 5.0 PPG in his first season, and 19.2 PPG in his second.

At this point, NBA scouts already had their eyes on Şengün. He knew that one more solid season in the top Turkish division before he was eligible for the NBA draft, could cement himself as a solid, first-round prospect. That’s just what he did. Şengün signed with a club called Beşiktaş and put up 19, 10, and 3 on 65% shooting. On the same night that Şengün was announced MVP of the Basketbol Süper Ligi, he declared for the NBA draft. The only questions around Şengün were about his size, athleticism, and if he was too skilled to come into his own as an NBA player. His draft comparisons included three-time all-star, Domantas Sabonis, and 2023 Hall of Fame nominee, Pau Gasol.

Şengün was drafted 16th overall by a rebuilding Houston Rockets team. Some who watch his game today may be confused that 15 players were drafted before him. To answer those questions, just look at the history of foreign players being drafted too low (there are fewer scouting opportunities on foreign players). Nikola Jokic was the 41st pick. Giannis Antetkounmpo was picked 16th. DeAndre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III were preferred over Luka Doncic in 2017 because of concerns about Doncic’s unfamiliarity with American basketball. Dirk Nowitzki was taken 9th overall, and like the other three, was the clear best player of his class.

In his rookie year, Şengün averaged 9.6 points, 5.5 boards, and 2.6 assists despite being snubbed from the all-rookie teams, and his versatile skillset was very promising. This season, Şengün has improved drastically, putting up 15.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 3.6 APG, 57.5 FG (up 10.1% from last year), and 31.3 % 3PFG (not great, but up 6.5% from last year). Şengün is rapidly advancing into the top 10 centers conversation. Said Jalen Green of his center, “[he] breaks a record every other day.” Next year, I think he could be an all-star. I also think that he will win an MVP some day. And an NBA championship.

More importantly, Şengün has been on a tear as of late, looking like a reason why the Rockets could contend for the playoffs next year. Here are his numbers from his last 11 contests.

Jan. 5 vs Utah — 20 PTS, 13 REB, 4 AST

Jan. 7 vs Minnesota — 18 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST

Jan. 11 vs Kings — 10 PTS, 10 REB, 10 AST

Jan. 13 vs Kings — 14 PTS, 6 REB, 7 AST

Jan. 15 vs Clippers — 15 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST

Jan. 16 vs Lakers — 33 PTS, 15 REB, 6 AST

Jan. 18 vs Hornets — 24 PTS, 12 REB, 6 AST

Jan. 21 vs Timberwolves — 19 PTS, 16 REB, 7 AST

Jan. 23 vs Timberwolves — 21 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST

Jan. 25 vs Wizards — 25 PTS, 11 REB, 10 AST

Jan. 26 vs Cavaliers — 14 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST

In this span, Şengün has averaged 19.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on 63% shooting, not to mention hitting 5 of his 7 attempted 3-pointers. Special numbers from a second year player.

So, it’s fairly obvious that this young man from Turkey excites me. But why? What does he bring to the table that is different from everybody else? Well, he reminds me of one of the best players in the league. The reigning two-time MVP in fact, and the most efficient player in today’s game. That would be Nikola Jokic, who in his best 11-game stretch from his second year, averaged 23.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 5.0 assists on identical 63% shooting.

As you can see, Şengün’s numbers from this season look eerily similar to those of Jokic in his second season. His numbers from this 11-game span are close to what Jokic averaged in his 5th season, a season in which Jokic was named to the All-NBA second team, and reached the Western Conference Finals. Some of Şengün’s games this season resemble the absurd statlines the Jokic has posted including a 40 point, 27 rebound, 10 assist game earlier this year.

Of course, the two also play a very similar game. As the stats show, they are highly versatile players. They can score from anywhere on the court including beyond the arc, where Şengün has taken 1.3 three-pointers per game in his career. Jokic took 1.5 in his first two seasons. They are predictably impactful on the glass, with Şengün in 31st and Jokic slotted at 25th in rebounds per 48 minutes this season (min. 30 games played). And in the passing game, Şengün is fifth among centers in assists per 48, behind Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, Draymond Green, and Pascal Siakam, although one could argue that Green and Siakam aren’t true centers. Additionally, 55% of Şengün’s assisted points have come from 3-point range this season, which will be positive for his team as NBA offenses continue to modernize. Defensively, both have their weaknesses, but Şengün is already close to Jokic’s level. He has a higher shot-blocking rate than Jokic, and the Rockets have a higher defensive rating with Şengün on the floor than the Nuggets do with Jokic on the floor. To be clear, none of this is to say that Şengün is a better player than Jokic, because he isn’t. It is all to say that Şengün plays a similar game to the two-time MVP, and even does some things better than Jokic.

One refute to my claim is that Jokic possesses more natural strength and has a more powerful frame than Şengün. However, Jokic has deficiencies too. He is one of the more unathletic players in the NBA. At 6 foot, 11 inches, only 2% of his shot attempts are dunks, unlike Şengün, whose athleticism was rated higher than Jokic’s by NBA scouts, while getting 8% of his shot attempts from dunks. Şengün also has an extra inch of height to him.

Something else that goes against me is that the Rockets have a league-worst record of 12-38. However, the Nuggets at the start of Jokic’s career were nothing to write home about either. Denver only won 33 games in that 2015-2016 season and did not make the playoffs in the first three years of Jokic’s career. Plus, the core four in Houston of Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Jabari Smith Jr., and Şengün have an average age of 20.25. You can’t expect that much youth to lead a team to great things in the early stages of their careers.

Bottom line: I believe Şengün possesses the skills to become Nikola Jokic 2.0, and his recent spurt should only make you want to hop on the Şengün train more. In his third year, Jokic averaged 18, 11, and 6 in a 40-win season. If Şengün is able to put up similar numbers in year three, we can’t continue to ignore this young, upcoming Turk. Before we know it, her might just be breaking records as a two-time MVP.