The X's and O's of Matchups Between the Top Championship Contenders
There have been several key games between some of the league’s heavyweights in the last two weeks, many of which look like potential playoff previews. Here are two things we know about the NBA playoffs: 1) They start in just about a month and 2) They are all about matchups. So often, we have seen lower seeds take out top seeds because they pose a very complicated matchup. Other times, a series that appears to be tight even turns into a blowout because one team is not equipped to keep up with the other.
Given that there are so many new-look teams at the forefront of the title conversation this year, I believe we have less of a sense of what some of the most important matchups look like. Ben Paradis and I discussed this on ATA Podcast #22, but I want to get into the nitty gritty today and dissect some of the recent games between contenders and what they mean for the playoffs.
Thunder vs Celtics
I was in attendance for this game last week which many felt was a Finals preview. The intensity was high inside of TD Garden as all of the fans were aware that the Thunder are all of a sudden the team to beat. However, while aware of their incredible 56-12 record, many fans still did not seem to respect OKC as a true title favorite, especially since they were playing without Jalen Williams.
The Thunder ultimately dispatched the Celtics 118-112. Though they only won by six, they played with a certain decisiveness that convinced me—a Celtics fan—that they were never going to lose the game. Even at 95-95 in the fourth quarter, I had no belief that the Celtics would be able to keep up with the Thunder’s potent offense with their blocky offense.
The story of the game was the Celtics three-point shooting. They shot 36 threes in the first half (most in NBA history) and finished with 63 threes in the game (third most in NBA history). They made just 20 of them (31.7%) while the Thunder shot 13/37 from beyond the arc (35.1%).
As a result of the Celtics’ stubbornness to shoot twos, their offense was very streaky. OKC started the game on a 9-0 run in which the Celtics shot 0-for-5 and 0-for-3 from three. At the start of the 4th quarter, the score was 88-88 before OKC went on a 7-2 run in the midst of an 0-for-3 three-point shooting stretch from Boston. The Celtics brought the score back to 95-95, but after OKC came out of a timeout, they went on a 9-3 run that essentially put the game away. In that 9-3 stretch, the Celtics shot 1-for-7 from three.
Boston can’t afford to shoot this many threes when they aren’t hot, because teams like the Thunder find a way to take advantage. And in a home environment where your role players are supposed to be the difference, shooting 63 threes not only takes all the life out of the stadium but out of the bench players who can’t get much of a feel for the game.
The bench is an issue for Boston. Watching that game from the stands, it occurred to me that I trusted OKC’s reserves (Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Alex Caruso, etc.) much more than I trust Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luka Kornet, and Torrey Craig. It’s because with so much reliance on threes, a good night for Hauser is if he shoots 3-for-5 from beyond the arc. Otherwise, it’s an underwhelming night. The same goes for Pritchard. OKC’s bench guys are able to impact the game in so many different ways because they are all elite defensively, and because the Thunder’s offensive game plan revolves around so much more than shooting threes. They are all good at filling in gaps, spacing the floor, having good court awareness, and not needing the ball to succeed.
The final major takeaway from this game is that the Thunder, once again, took Jaylen Brown out of the game. Brown had a Bradley Beal game four vs Minnesota esque performance, scoring 10 points while shooting 5-for-15 from the field and 0-for-5 from three. He tallied five rebounds and two assists and fouled out with 3:36 to play.
Brown put his hands on his head in agony as he walked off the court after his sixth foul. After the game, he admitted to being rattled by OKC’s physicality. The bottom line is that Boston needs the best version of Brown if they want to repeat this year. Kristaps Porzingis has played fewer than half of the Celtics’ games this year, and Jrue Holiday is clearly laboring through his mallet finger injury, so if Brown is playing badly, the Celtics' offense turns into the Jayson Tatum show which is not good enough to beat the Thunder, no matter how well JT has been playing lately.
OKC has won both meetings this season and has shut down Brown both times, but when fully healthy, I believe Boston still poses as a major threat.
Series Prediction: Thunder in 7
Thunder vs Nuggets
Before the Thunder took down the defending champs last Wednesday night, they hosted a baseball series with the Nuggets. Two Sundays ago, the Thunder prevailed 127-103, but the Nuggets battled back a day later, barraging OKC with three-pointers and winning 140-127. A major storyline going into the mini-series was the MVP race between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In the two games, Jokic averaged 29.5 PPG, 15.5 RPG, and 8.5 APG (averages 29.0, 12.8, and 10.3 for the season), while SGA put up 32.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 6.0 APG (averages 32.8, 5.1, and 6.2 for the season). Long story short: these two games settled nothing MVP-related.
What it did settle is who will win a seven-game series. I believe that to be the Thunder. Denver needed their best shooting game in years to take down OKC, and if what we’ve seen this season is any indication, they won’t shoot 61% from the field and 56% from three again. Russell Westbrook, Jalen Pickett, and Payton Watson won’t shoot a combined 9-12 from downtown again.
More importantly, Denver’s defense is a leaky boat. Nikola Jokic has a terrific defensive IQ, but he is not the rim protector that other Western conference centers like Chet Holmgren, Rudy Gobert, or Jaren Jackson Jr. are. On the perimeter, Jamal Murray and Christian Braun—their top defender—aren’t good enough to defend Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who continues to drop bodies with his nasty handles.
OKC managed to score 127 points in both games without clearing 50% shooting in either game which tells me that their offensive performances against Denver are replicable in the future. In addition, they don’t have a single player (maybe besides Alex Caruso) who I’d let take an open three. And Denver’s defensive rotation and quickness aren't necessarily the best in show.
The Thunder’s containment of Jamal Murray is another reason why I believe Denver doesn’t stand much of a chance against them. These are Murray’s last six games against the Thunder.
34 PTS, 11-22 FG
17 PTS, 6-17 FG
12 PTS, 4-13 FG
16 PTS, 6-14 FG
9 PTS, 4-15 FG
15 PTS, 5-13 FG
Averages: 17.2 PPG, 38.3% from the field
As we’ve seen in back-to-back seasons, the Nuggets will be good as long as Nikola Jokic is on the roster, but they are only great when Murray is at his best. They are 21-9 this season when Murray scores at least 20 points and just 16-15 when he fails to reach that threshold.
Denver’s only real chance is if Jokic can use his massive computer brain to pick OKC apart over the course of a seven-game series. Don’t expect Denver to win game one, but if Jokic can solve their defense and Murray chips in with some above-average play, the Nuggets stand a slight chance of winning four out of seven.
Series Prediction: Thunder in 6
Nuggets vs Timberwolves
It might not be a conference finals matchup, but nobody can deny the excitement that a Nuggets vs Timberwolves threematch (yes, I just made that up) would bring. Denver sent Minnesota home in round one of a closely contested five-game series in 2023 and Minnesota shocked the world by getting revenge in a seven-game classic last season.
Since that series—a back-and-forth battle—Minnesota has dominated Denver. They’ve had three meetings this season, and the Timberwolves won all three by an average of 17.3 points per game (24.5 in their last two). They’ve now beat Denver in their last five matchups, and are 9-5 against them since the start of last season.
The primary reason for Minnesota’s dominance is their defense. In the last 354 calendar days, the Nuggets have been held to under 100 points eight times in games that Jokic plays. The Timberwolves were responsible for seven of those. In the 14 games that they’ve played in the last two seasons, the Nuggets have scored only 101.1 PPG against Minnesota—the lowest of any team they’ve faced.
What is the reason for this? Much like OKC, they know to shut down Jamal Murray, who, as you know by now, is the key to taking Denver’s offense to the next level. The Wolves have terrific perimeter defenders in Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaden McDaniels, and even Jaylen Clark to combat him. As a result, since the start of last season, Murray is averaging 17.2 PPG on 41.4% shooting—subpar compared to his usual 21.4 PPG on 47.8% shooting.
But their stout defense against Murray ripples even further. It forces Jokic to be a scorer which is Denver’s recipe for disaster. Jokic, who is averaging 10.3 assists per game, has only dished out 6.4 per game in his last seven regular games against the Wolves. Add the seven playoff games into that mix, and it’s still just 7.4 per game.
Bottom line: Minnesota is a nightmare matchup for a very vulnerable Denver team. You can never count out Jokic in a seven-game series, and this version of Minnesota doesn’t have Karl-Anthony Towns, but Denver has also gotten worse and the Wolves have already beaten them once. I believe that if given the opportunity, they’ll do it again.
Series Prediction: Timberwolves in 7
Cavaliers vs Celtics
There hasn’t been a Cavs vs Celtics game in March, but given that it seems inevitable that these two teams will collide in the Eastern Conference Finals, so why not write about it?
Despite snapping their 16-game winning streak with a home loss to Orlando, and a disappointing L against the Clippers last night, the Cavs still have the best record in the league at 56-12. The Celtics trail them by six-and-a-half games with a 50-19 record.
The two have split their four meetings this year with the Cavs with each game being decided by seven points or fewer. All signs point to the Eastern Conference title coming down to the final seconds of game seven.
When two teams are as even as Boston and Cleveland, I tend to lean on experience which Boston has a considerable advantage with. In the last five seasons, the Celtics have won 13 more playoff games than any other team (52) which is larger than the gap between second-place Miami (39) and seventh-place Dallas (27). They just won the championship and comfortably beat a very similar-looking Cleveland team in the second round of the playoffs. DeAndre Hunter is the only Cavs player to appear in a conference finals game in his career while the entirety of the Celtics playoff lineup was there just one year ago.
I also believe that when healthy, the Celtics match up with the Cavs better than most. They have two elite defensive guards in Jrue Holiday and Derrick White to help combat Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland who are averaging a combined 45.2 points per game. On the front line, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford are big and physical enough to neutralize the length and height that Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen bring to the table.
Despite these advantages, I’d be disrespecting the Cavs if I argued that the Celtics have matched their level of play this year. No team in the East has played better than Cleveland this season and it isn’t close. They are 2nd in points per game, first in three-point percentage, second in net rating, and first in offensive rating. They are shooting 49.2/38.8/78.9 splits for the season which has resulted in the highest effective field goal percentage of any team.
The Cavs are also incredible in the clutch which would pay off against Boston who they always match up closely against. They have a league-best 22-7 record in the clutch with an absurd 33.8 net rating. That’s the second-highest in NBA history behind the 73-win Warriors who had a clutch net rating of 34.1.
Their defense can be shaky on the perimeter and will be the reason they get knocked out of the playoffs if they do. But then again, Boston’s offense can get clunky and they have periods where they become far to three-point happy. Both teams have their flaws, but more importantly, both teams have a boatload of skills that make them two of the top three contenders in the NBA this season.
For my prediction, it was hard to rely on X’s and O’s given that Cleveland has outscored Boston 460-459 this season and both teams have similar playing styles. In the end, it came down to experience.
Series Prediction: Celtics in 7
That’s going to do it for my playoff previews today. These are my favorite articles to write—breaking down the intricate details within each matchup and how one team’s biggest strength or weakness could make or break their chances.
Be sure to listen to the ATA Podcast with Ben Paradis from Beyond the Box Score to hear our weekly thoughts on these X’s and O’s. Plus, stay tuned for March Madness coverage later today and tomorrow morning. Until next time.