They Can't Keep Getting Away With This
CHARLOTTE — Patrick Mahomes scrambled down the left sideline for 33 yards to put the Chiefs into field goal range with under a minute to play. It was a fitting response to Bryce Young’s game-tying touchdown drive given how many times Mahomes has broken opponents’ hearts late in the fourth quarter with his legs.
Kansas City bled the clock down to 0:02 to set up backup kicker Spencer Shrader for a 31-yard field goal to walk it off for Kansas City on the road.
The victory brings KC to 10-1 which stands as the best record in the NFL—tied with the Detroit Lions. However, when you watch Kansas City play, they don’t look like a great team. Yesterday is a perfect example; why are they only beating the consensus worst team in the NFL for most of the season on a game-winning kick? The Chiefs consistently do the bare minimum to win and somehow, time after time, it works.
The word “somehow” is important in this case because it shows the lack of an explanation that we have for the Chiefs’ success this season. Sure, Patrick Mahomes is clutch and this team has played on the biggest stage year after year, but how do you explain the bad calls the Chiefs get in their favor, the coin tosses they win, their blocked kick vs Denver, Isaiah Likely’s toe, etc.?
Believe it or not, there is a stat for all of those random, unexplainable moments. It’s called luck rating. Luck rating is simpler than you may think. It calculates how many wins you are above expected based on your point differential. When I first discovered the stat, I told my friends, “I’m telling you right now, there’s no way the Chiefs aren’t #1.” And sure enough, sitting at the top of the luck rankings are the Chiefs, who are a rare three wins above expected after 11 games.
Here are the full rankings. Any column to the right of the rating column isn’t important.
As expected, most of the top teams in the league are at the top of the rankings. That’s what happens when you have a lot of wins—you win a few games that you aren’t supposed to win. The teams at the very bottom aren’t the worst teams in the league, but rather some teams that can’t catch a break from absolutely heartbreaking finishes.
The Bengals are 1-6 in one-score games this season and actually have a positive point differential despite being 4-7. The Jets have lost four games this season by three points or fewer, and the Bears have lost three of their last five games on a Hail Mary, a blocked kick, and a game-winning field goal.
There’s only one team that has a luck rating of exactly zero. That’s the Ravens. As a Baltimore fan, I’m happy to see that whatever the outcome of our season ends up being, it will accurately reflect the strength of our team.
But nothing on this chart jumps out to me more than the gap between the Chiefs and the rest of the field.
Since the stat started being tracked (2003), there have only been five teams to have a luck rating more than double the third-ranked team (the 2003 Patriots, 2006 Colts, 2009 Colts, 2022 Vikings, and the 2024 Chiefs). The highest luck rating ever was New England in 2003 and Pittsburgh in 2004 who both had an absurd 5.0 rating. The Chiefs are currently on pace to break that record with a projected luck rating of 5.3.
So, all of this begs a larger question: What if luck wasn’t a factor? I set every team’s luck rating to zero and re-created the standings. First, here are the current standings.
Now, here are the standings excluding team luck. There are decimals because luck ratings aren’t always whole numbers.
What Changed?
The Ravens surpassed the Steelers for first place in the AFC North.
The Jaguars surpassed the Titans for third place in the AFC South.
The Chargers surpassed the Chiefs for first place in the AFC West.
The Packers surpassed the Vikings for second place in the NFC North.
The Buccaneers surpassed the Falcons for first place in the NFC South.
The Saints surpassed the Falcons for second place in the NFC South.
The Niners surpassed the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Rams for first place in the NFC West.
Now, let’s take a look at the playoff picture. First, here’s the actual version.
Now, here is the luck adjusted playoff picture.
In the AFC, the Bills leap up to the 1st seed, the Ravens jump the Steelers for the division lead and the 2nd seed, the Texans slide up from 4th to 3rd, and the Chargers overtake the Chiefs for the division lead and the fourth seed. Kansas City and Pittsburgh occupy the first two wild card spots, and the Bengals rise from 10th to 7th and steal the final spot from the Broncos.
In the NFC, the Lions and Eagles maintain their positions as the two best teams, but the 49ers and Bucs jump into 3rd and 4th by taking their divisions. Green Bay and Washington slide past Minnesota in the wild card spots, dumping the Vikings to 7th.
Most of these differences from the actual playoff picture to the luck-adjusted playoff picture were predictable enough. The Ravens look better than the Steelers by the eye test, the Bengals have been incredibly unlucky on national TV several times, the 49ers still have the best roster in the NFC West, the Falcons have several nail-biting wins, and the Vikings have had luck on their side.
But never would I have predicted that the Chiefs wouldn’t even have the AFC West division lead if luck wasn’t on their side this season.
Is it a good sign for the Chiefs that they can pull out games they have no business winning? Or is it a signal that they are fraudulent and eventually they will come down to earth? Admittedly, I’d go with the former given what we know about the Chiefs from seasons past.
After all, as Ralph Waldo Emerson, who resided in my hometown of Concord, MA for much of his life, once said, “Shallow people believe in luck. Strong people believe in cause and effect.”
RWE for the win!