Week 1 Panel Picks
The panel is back better than ever with a bolstered roster, new exciting rules, and an incredible season of NFL football ahead of us.
If you recall back to last February, Theo Randall outlasted George Constable in a tight battle for the right to being the first-time champion. It’s anyone’s game now with plenty of new storylines surrounding the panel members.
Let’s start with Rahul Babu, who if I’m not mistaken has developed an algorithm to win the panel this year—the product of his sudden obsession with sports betting (follow rb1picks on social media).
I may not know the lines like Rahul does, but I’ve certainly read between them by reading sports novels by some of my favorite journalists and listening to NFL podcasts hosted by some of the experts in their field.
The rules are more strict this year, meaning Theo won’t be able to resort to picking the favorites in every single game. That’s good news for George, who was the best upset-picker last season.
Although Ray Pavlik is probably still picking Drake Maye as his Super Bowl MVP, he recently announced that since the Bill Belichick era has ended, he won’t be picking the morbid Patriots every week. That's got to be disappointing news to Jackson Stone, who would lock his trusty Lions every week if he had it this way.
Josh Sun had an unimaginably bad ending to his 2023-2024 campaign, but you can hardly blame the guy—he’s just picking with his heart. He says he’ll be doing the same thing this year.
Most importantly, we are glad to welcome an 8th panel member to the team! Ben Bavar is a McDonough graduate and a current Brown undergrad and is ready to rock the world.
Enough introduction. Let’s explain the rules and start the season that we’ve all been anticipating for months.
Underdog Rules: The goal is to force everyone to go out on a limb at least once per week, so I made some extra regulations.
1. Every week, two underdogs must be picked.
a. One underdog has to be at least +1.
b. The other underdog has to be at least +3.
2. Every four weeks, an underdog of at least +5 and an underdog of at least +7 must be picked.
a. For example, I could pick the Broncos +6 in week one to satisfy my +5 pick and then I could pick the Cardinals +7.5 in week three to satisfy the +7 pick. Once we reach week five (every four weeks), those picks reset.
Lock rules: The goal is to make it harder to lock the best team every week and increase diversity in the locks.
1. As usual, locking a team for a week awards 2 wins to the usual 1 win if get it right, but 2 losses if you get the lock wrong.
2. There is no more restriction on which teams can be locked each week. Last year, we weren’t allowed to lock a team with a line higher than -7, but that is allowed now.
(MOST IMPORTANT)
3. The new style will be like a survivor pool—once you lock a team, you cannot lock them again. Since 18 weeks is a lot of time, locks reset at week 10 (after half the season).
a. For example, I could lock the Chiefs in week 4 and week 11, but I couldn’t lock them in week 4 and week 8.
Primetime Games
Early Window
Late Window
Most alike picks: Ray and I only picked one game differently. He likes the Eagles and I like the Packers.
Least alike picks: Josh and Theo picked differently in 10 games. If history is an indicator, this will go very well for Theo and very poorly for Josh.
Most upsets picked: In typical Josh fashion, he chose nine underdogs
Fewest upsets picked: Theo only picked two upsets.
Most picks with majority: Ray was never in the minority with his picks.
Most picks against majority: Jackson was in the minority in seven of the 16 games.
What Stands Out?
Ravens vs Chiefs has to be the front-page headline. 7 votes for the Ravens??? Here are what I believe to be the factors. 1) The Chiefs lost the introductory game last season to the Lions. 2) The Ravens are three-point underdogs which satisfies the +3 rule for each week. 3) We have three Ravens fans on the panel. Even so, one vote for the defending champs is incredulous.
Rookie quarterbacks are 16-35-1 in their first career starts in NFL history. They are 0-7-1 in their last eight and have not won a game since Sam Darnold in 2018. That didn’t stop us from sweeping the Bears over the Titans. Chicago and Buffalo were the only two teams to sweep. The Caleb Williams hype train is already in full rumble.
As 2.5-point underdogs in Cleveland, the Cowboys are getting a lot of love from the panel. The Cowboys made no notable additions this offseason and had a boatload of drama surrounding the contracts of Ceedee Lamb, Dak Prescott, and Micah Parsons. However, everyone seems to be out on Deshaun Watson. Everyone except Jackson and Theo, that is.
The survivor lock system is already causing people to be strategic about their locks. I’m not sure the Saints will be locked again all season, but Ray has jumped on the opportunity to lock them as 4.5-point favorites over Carolina. I had a similar train of thought, locking up the Chargers over the Raiders.
There is a clear consensus on every primetime game. The Ravens, Lions, and 49ers were all picked 7-1 over the Chiefs, Rams, and Jets, respectively. And the Eagles blew away the Packers 6-2. Close votes or not, I’m not sure there has ever been a more excited five-day stretch of NFL football. Gear up.
Playoff Picture
Let’s pretend our majority pick in each matchup won this weekend. Here would be the playoff matchups on Wild Card Weekend if that were the case.
AFC
(1) Baltimore Ravens vs BYE | This would be the second straight year Baltimore has earned a first round bye.
(2) Houston Texans vs (7) Pittsburgh Steelers | Houston beat Pittsburgh 30-6 in week four last season.
(3) Los Angeles Chargers vs (6) Buffalo Bills | Buffalo beat Los Angeles 24-22 in week 16 last season.
(4) Miami Dolphins vs (5) Cincinnati Bengals | This would be a battle of two of the top QBs from the 2020 draft class.
NFC
(1) Detroit Lions vs BYE | The Lions are my pick to get the one seed this season.
(2) Philadelphia Eagles vs (7) Seattle Seahawks | Seattle beat Philadelphia 20-17 in week 15 last season.
(3) New Orleans Saints vs (6) Dallas Cowboys | This would be a battle of dome teams.
(4) San Francisco 49ers vs (5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers | San Francisco beat Tampa Bay 27-14 in week 11 last season.
We are 23 minutes to kickoff, so I’m going to keep this short. Enjoy the panel this season and go Ravens.