Week 12 Power Rankings
I wasn’t able to release this article in time for last night’s Thursday snow globe game no thanks to a busy week and some emailing issues on Substack but that won’t stop ATA from blazing ahead to the two-thirds mark in this season’s power rankings. And because these rankings were meant to be read prior to Thursday Night’s game, I did not take into account the Steelers vs Browns winter affair (you’re welcome Steelers fans).
There was no shortage of movement in this week’s edition including a few teams scratching and clawing their way into the top half, a few squads earning top ten status for the first time all season, and a couple teams who sprinted out of the gate coming back down to earth. But everyone’s wondering about the elephant in the room: “Are the Chiefs finally going to move down?” My answer to that: read the rankings.
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (down 1)
Record: 2-9
Number: 1
That’s how many times in Doug Pederson’s career that he has won 10 games. Pederson’s been a head coach for nine years and yet, he has only hit 10 once. Pederson is a fraudulent coach who has lost the locker room in Jacksonville and will either be fired during the season or after the season ends.
31. Carolina Panthers (up 1)
Record: 3-7
Number: -14.3
That’s Carolina’s point differential this season. It’s -3.7 points worse than the second-worst team in the league (Dallas). Their last two wins have come by an average of two points and six of their seven losses have been by at least 14 points including four losses by at least 23 points.
30. Dallas Cowboys (down 5)
Record: 3-7
Number: 77.4%
77.4% is the percent of the time that Dallas’ opponents score touchdowns when they get into the redzone. That is last in the NFL and the gap between them and 30th-place Tennessee (7.62%) is nearly as large as the gap between Tennessee and 20th ranked Jets (7.70%).
29. New York Giants (up 1)
Record: 2-8
Number: 8
That’s the number of touchdowns that Daniel Jones has thrown this season which puts him on pace to finish under 16 for the fifth year in a row. Even in 2022, when Jones made the playoffs and was paid his massive contract, he only threw 15 TDs.
28. Tennessee Titans (down 1)
Record: 2-8
Number: 36.6
That’s Will Levis’ passer rating in the fourth quarter this season which is last in the NFL. That’s led to the Titans having the lowest fourth-quarter points per game with 2.9. If games ended after the third quarter, the Titans would be 3-5-3. Not great, but it’d be 11th in the AFC. They’re 2-8 because of their fourth-quarter woes.
27. Cleveland Browns (up 2)
Record: 2-8
Number: 36.4%
That is the number of plays that have been successful as part of the EPA stat. The stat is calculated based on yards on a play vs expected yards on a play. Cleveland is in last place by a wide margin, largely due to Deshaun Watson’s miserable performance this season.
26. Las Vegas Raiders (up 1)
Record: 2-8
Number: -14
That's the Raiders' turnover margin, which is by far the worst in the NFL. They've turned it over a league-worst 19 times in nine games while recording a league-low five takeaways. So, this isn't just a quarterback problem.
25. New England Patriots (down 1)
Record: 3-8
Number: 16
That’s the fewest points the Patriots have scored in the six games that Drake Maye has started this season. For perspective, they scored sub-16 three times in Jacoby Brissett’s five starts and seven times last season. Things are looking up for the Patriots who have a +10 point differential in their last four games.
24. New York Jets (down 1)
Record: 4-7
Number: 0-4
That’s the Jets’ record in games decided by three points or fewer. They lost 10-9 on a missed field goal kick against the Broncos, the Bills had a game-winning interception in a 23-20 victory over the Jets, their rival Patriots scored a go-ahead touchdown with under 20 seconds to go, and Anthony Richardson scored a go-ahead touchdown with 46 seconds remaining in a 28-27 win.
23. New Orleans Saints (up 1)
Record: 4-7
Number: 34
That’s the average points per game allowed by New Orleans in October when they went 0-4. Without that month, the Saints are 4-3 and their two consecutive wins have fans wondering what would’ve happened if Dennis Allen was fired earlier. The Saints have talent but it was wasted by the team’s hatred for Allen.
22. Chicago Bears (down 1)
Record: 4-6
Number: 24.8%
That's Caleb Williams' bad throw rate. He and the already-benched-once Bryce Young are the only qualified passers in the NFL with bad throw rates above 20.0%. Before the season started and at 4-2, the Caleb draft pick looked like the perfect fix to years of struggle. Now, Bears fans are second-guessing.
21. Indianapolis Colts (up 1)
Record: 5-6
Record: 57.78%
That is the Colts’ alarming completion percentage this season between an erratic Anthony Richardson and a dying Joe Flacco. Incredibly, Richardson has only gone about 50% in two of his seven starts. Flacco didn’t help much, passing for under 60% in three of his five games. The gap between their last-place collective 57.78% completion percentage and the 31st-ranked team is larger than the gap between 31st and 17th.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (no change)
Record: 4-6
Number: 47%
That’s the target share that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin occupied when they were in the lineup. The Bucs were 4-3 before both were sidelined with injury and all of a sudden, Tampa is 0-3 in their last three games with Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton as Baker Mayfield’s top targets. Evans is expected to return this week.
19. Atlanta Falcons (down 5)
Record: 6-5
Number: 9
Nine is the number of sacks the Falcons have recorded this season which is dead last in the NFL. They're the only team in the league without a double-digit sack total, and their sack rate of 2.56% is easily the worst mark in football. And that’s after trading for Matthew Judon. Achilles' heel? Possibly.
18. Seattle Seahawks (up 1)
Record: 5-5
Number: 2.33
That’s the number of seconds the Seahawks last before allowing pressure on QB Geno Smith. The Hawks have one of the worst offensive lines in the league which has led to 3.2 sacks allowed per game—27th in the NFL. The Seahawks have talented playmakers on offense but their shaky line negates much of those players’ productivity.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (down 2)
Record: 4-7
Number: -2.0
That’s the Bengals’ luck rating this season and it’s last in the NFL. A luck rating of -2.0 means that the Bengals have two fewer wins than they would if the season was simulated 100 times. In simpler terms, they have played like a 6-5 team but have been on the wrong side of some tough losses.
16. Miami Dolphins (up 2)
Record: 4-6
Number: 2.7
2.7 is the average completed air yards per target for Tua Tagovailoa. That’s 32nd out of 34 qualified QBs and the lowest of Tagovailoa’s career. It explains the Dolphins’ mediocre 3-3 record in his starts.
15. Los Angeles Rams (up 2)
Record: 5-5
Number: 63.8%
That’s Matthew Stafford’s on-target percentage, which is by far and away the worst qualified rate in the NFL. The 36-year-old appears to be on his last legs, or at least heading towards it.
14. Denver Broncos (up 2)
Record: 6-5
Number: 5-1
People are quick to point out the fact that Atlanta was the first winning team that Denver beat but given their less-than-lofty preseason expectations, I chose to point out that Denver is 5-1 against losing teams. They’re taking care of business which surpasses what we thought they were capable of this year.
13. San Francisco 49ers (down 2)
Record: 5-5
Number: 3
That’s the number of division games that the Niners have lost after having an 87+% chance of winning. Last week, ESPN’s game cast gave them an 87.6% chance of winning prior to Seattle’s game-winning drive. Against Arizona, that number was 93.2%, and against Los Angeles, it was 95.5%. The Niners could be 8-2 but allowing game-winning drives has stunted their season so far.
12. Arizona Cardinals (down 2)
Record: 6-4
Number: 118.1
That’s Kyler Murray's passer rating on deep attempts this season, which ranks fourth among quarterbacks who have made at least five starts. Once they hit on the deep ball, Arizona is 7th in redzone success rate, which has led them to be a top ten offense this season by DVOA The explosiveness is back in Arizona.
11. Washington Commanders (down 4)
Record: 7-4
Number: 2.3
Jayden Daniels has 10 carries for just 23 yards (2.3 average) in his last two games. His last two games have been his fewest rush yards and yards per carry of his young career and the reason is clear—the rookie is hurt. He’ll have a chance to get back on track against Dallas this week, but pain is pain and Daniels is feeling it come Sunday, these rushing numbers might be here to stay.
10. Green Bay Packers (down 1)
Record: 7-3
Number: 11
It’s been an up-and-down season for 5th-year-man Jordan Love. He’s thrown 16 touchdowns in seven games this season but is tied for the league lead in interceptions with 11. Love’s carelessness has complicated matters for Green Bay who are 7-3 but have not looked as crisp as we expected they would on offense and have very few definitive wins this season. Their last three wins have been by a combined six points.
9. Los Angeles Chargers (up 4)
Record: 7-4
Number: 23-50
That’s the combined record of the opponents that the Chargers have beaten. Six of the seven victims have at least seven losses on the season and the Broncos—the only team with a winning record—were 2-2 with a raw Bo Nix at the time. The Chargers look good, but I need to see them beat someone real. They play the Ravens this week.
8. Houston Texans (up 4)
Record: 7-3
Number: 35
That’s the amount of sacks that C.J. Stroud has surrendered through 10 games, meaning he’s on pace to take 60 sacks. Last season, with an injury-riddled offensive line, Stroud was only sacked 38 times but with all of the negative plays (35 is five-worst in the NFL), the Texans offense has been rather stagnant. They’ve only scored over 24 three times.
7. Minnesota Vikings (up 1)
Record: 8-2
Number: 1
1st place is the Vikings league rank in defensive DVOA. It’s been a long time coming for a unit that U-turned when Brian Flores was hired last year. They were 24th in 2022, 11th in 2023, and top of the mountain so far this season. They are 4th in PPG allowed, 1st in rush yards per game allowed, and 10th in YPG allowed.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (no change)
Record: 8-2
Number: 27.3
27.3 is the Steelers’ points per game since inserting Russell Wilson into the lineup. Their scoring total has gradually decreased week by week, but it’s a nice step up from the 20.7 that Justin Fields was giving them. Mr. Unlimited is the reason the Steelers are 8-2 as opposed to 6-4.
5. Baltimore Ravens (down 1)
Record: 7-4
Number: 7.1
That’s the yards per play gained by the Ravens offense thus far. The next-best offense in the AFC in that category? Buffalo at 5.8. Lamar Jackson and Co. are head and shoulders above everyone else right now. It’s led to a second-ranked DVOA of 35.7%, validating their spot in the top five.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (up 1)
Record: 8-2
Number: +90
That's the margin by which the Eagles have outscored their opponents during an ongoing six-game post-bye winning streak. It's been on heck of a stretch that has certainly saved their season, and possibly even jobs belonging to key organizational figures.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (down 2)
Record: 9-1
Number: 2.7
I talked about the Bengals league-worst luck rating, so I may as well talk about the league’s best. A 2.7 luck rating at this point in the season is virtually unheard of and it soars above the rest of the league. The Vikings are second with a 2.0 rating and the Bills are third with a 1.3. 17th-ranked Baltimore is 0.0. A 2.7 rating means the Chiefs would have a hypothetical record of 6.3-3.7 if the season was simulated over and over again. They’d be the 6th seed in the AFC if every team’s luck rating was neutralized.
2. Buffalo Bills (up 1)
Record: 9-2
Number: +13
That's the Bills' turnover margin, which tops the NFL by a multi-turnover margin over second-place Steelers. They've already got 20 takeaways and just seven turnovers. In the four seasons prior to this one, Allen’s interception count through games had risen from 7 to 8 to 10 to 11. It was just five this season.
1. Detroit Lions (up 1)
Record: 9-1
Number: 15.9
The Lions' average point differential is 12.6 this season which is miles ahead of the rest of the league. No other team is in double digits and the gap between them and second-place Buffalo (+9.6) is larger than the gap between Buffalo and 11th-ranked Green Bay (+3.7). That’s on pace to surpass the 2019 Ravens and enter the top ten highest point differentials of all time (highest since the 2007 Patriots who lead the list with an average point differential of 19.7).
Interesting to think about the Luck Rating. Also - you finally found a reason to knock KC out of the top spot!