Week 14 Panel Picks
The favorites won almost every game, Mahomes’ black magic continued, and seven out of eight of us saw our favorite teams lose, but the fact of the matter is that Thanksgiving weekend was a major success for the panel.
We posted a combined record of 108-28 (0.794) which is the winningest week in the panel’s 38-week-long history. Individually, Ray posted a record of 16-1—a feat that nobody on the panel has ever accomplished. Ben also had a career-best record of 15-2, Rahul went 14-3, and four of us finished 13-4, leaving Jackson at the bottom of the pig pile as he has been all season with a record of 11-6.
Take a look at the full standings, and remember that if you want to bet on NFL moneylines, you’ve come to the right place. Before week five, I wrote about our struggles predicting games in the first four weeks. We were just 308-236 (56.7%) which was 3.4% worse than our win percentage last season. Since then, we’ve gone 753-367 (67.2%) which has boosted our win percentage for the season to 63.8%—3.7% better than last year.
Here are the picks for week 14.
Primetime Games
Early Window
Late Window
Most alike picks: Rahul and Theo had the exact same picks this week. This bodes well for Theo given how well Rahul has been picking lately.
Least alike picks: Josh and Jackson picked seven games differently.
Most upsets picked: Josh picked four upsets including the Giants over the Saints. Not sure how that will turn out for him.
Fewest upsets picked: Six panelists only picked two upsets.
Most picks with majority: Rahul, Ben, and Theo, whose picks were all nearly identical, were in the majority for every game.
Most picks against majority: Jackson was in the minority four times.
What Stands Out?
Death, taxes, and the Chiefs’ sorcery bailing them out at the end of games. It seems that their late-game execution/luck has swept across the panel as they received all eight votes to beat the Chargers on Sunday Night. There is an inevitability to this team that we haven’t seen since the Patriots in the 2010s.
Someday, we’ve got to stop believing in Cincinnati, right? Wrong. George was the only panelist to pick Dallas this week and even though I told him that I was leaning towards Dallas, I couldn’t make the leap. Our reluctance to jump off the Bengals train speaks to the bias that fans and media place on offense over defense.
Atlanta might be screwed. Nobody seems to believe in them anymore, despite taking on a Minnesota team that is due for a loss after winning their last five games by an average of 5.4 points. On the other hand, Tampa was picked to beat Vegas this week and seems to be trending upward. These are two NFC South teams headed in opposite directions.
If the Seahawks and the Bills both win as the panel expects them to, Seattle will hold a two-game lead in the NFC West with the head-to-head record over Arizona. I predicted Detroit vs Seattle as my NFC Championship game, so I’m all for a little Seahawks success.
Jackson has become quite the rogue bludger as of late and this week was the cherry on top. He picked three lone wolves in the early window—the Raiders, Jets, and Browns who are three of the five biggest underdogs of the week. I love the guy’s aggression.
Playoff Picture
Let’s pretend our majority pick in each matchup won this weekend. Here are the projected playoff matchups on Wild Card Weekend.
AFC
(1) Kansas City Chiefs vs BYE | Kansas City would be 12-1 for the second time in the Mahomes era.
(2) Buffalo Bills vs (7) Denver Broncos | Buffalo and Denver have the two longest win streaks in the AFC.
(3) Pittsburgh Steelers vs (6) Los Angeles Chargers | Jim Harbaugh won the only meeting with Mike Tomlin.
(4) Houston Texans vs (5) Baltimore Ravens | Houston beat an AFC North team by 31 points as the 4the seed in the Wild Card round last year.
NFC
(1) Detroit Lions vs BYE | Detroit has never finished the season as the one seed in their franchise’s history.
(2) Philadelphia Eagles vs (7) Washington Commanders | Philadelphia and Washington have the second and third highest point differentials in the NFC.
(3) Seattle Seahawks vs (6) Green Bay Packers | Green Bay has scored 33.0 PPG in their last three games and Seattle has allowed 14.7 PPG in their last three.
(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs (5) Minnesota Vikings | This would be matchup of the first two quarterbacks drafted in 2018.