Week 18 Power Rankings + Playoff and Draft Scenarios for Every Team
We’re at a point in the season where it hardly matters where I rank the teams. What matters is the number in the win column and what happens in week 18. So, for this edition of the power rankings, I outlined the playoff and draft scenarios for all 32 teams.
Note: These rankings do not take into account any week 18 results, and all playoff probabilities are live (as of the release time of this article).
32. Carolina Panthers
Number one pick probability: 0%
What’s at stake: Nothing. They clinched the worst record in the league, but the number one pick will go to the Bears as a result of the Bryce Young trade from last year’s draft.
31. Washington Commanders
Number two pick probability: 76%
What’s at stake: Washington is almost definite to clinch the 2nd overall pick in the draft if they lose to Dallas. There are slim scenarios in which different results put the Commanders at #3 even if they lose.
30. Los Angeles Chargers
Top five pick probability: 19%
What’s at stake: LA can get as high as #4 with a loss, but have a 81% chance of being anywhere from picks 6-8.
29. New England Patriots
Number two pick probability: 18%
What’s at stake: With a win, they can move as low as #6 in the draft. With a loss and a Washington win, they will have the 2nd pick in the draft.
28. Tennessee Titans
Top five pick probability: 23%
What’s at stake: Tennessee can pick as low as 8th with a win, but can get all the way up to #4 with a loss and wins by LA, New York, and Arizona.
27. New York Jets
Top seven pick probability: 35%
What’s at stake: The Jets sit at 8th overall, but realistically, can pick as high as 6th assuming they lose to New England. With a win, and losses by seven win teams, they can fall out of the top 10.
26. Arizona Cardinals
Number two pick probability: 5%
What’s at stake: If Arizona loses, and Washington and New England win, Arizona will pick second. If they beat Seattle, they can go as low as #7.
25. New York Giants
Top three pick probability: 7%
What’s at stake: The Giants are in 5th position right now, and have a 79% chance to pick either 4th or 5th. With a win, they can pick as low as #7, but can get as high as #3.
24. Atlanta Falcons
Playoff probability: 9%
What’s at stake: They’ll be the NFC 4 seed with a win and a Tampa Bay loss. Anything else, and they’re eliminated.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Playoff probability: 2%
What’s at stake: Minnesota either needs a win, a Panthers win, a Bears win, and a Cardinals win to clinch he NFC 7 seed, or a win, and wins by the Bucs, Falcons, Bears, and Cardinals.
22. Denver Broncos
Playoff probability: 0%
What’s at stake: It’s unlikely, but Denver can sneak into the 10th spot in the draft with a win over Las Vegas and some help. Odds are that they finish somewhere from 15-18.
21. Las Vegas Raiders
Playoff probability: 0%
What’s at stake: Their story is essentially identical to Denver’s. For what it’s worth, Vegas has Antonio Pierce’s job partially st stake in this game.
20. Seattle Seahawks
Playoff probability: 26%
What’s at stake: Seattle needs a win and a Bears upset of the Packer to clinch the 7 seed. All other results will eliminate them.
19. New Orleans Saints
Playoff probability: 22%
What’s at stake: A win vs Atlanta and a Tampa Bay loss will give them the NFC 4 seed. If the Bucs win, New Orleans can still get the 7 seed with a win, a Bears win, and a Cardinals win.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playoff probability: 77%
Whats at stake: With a win vs Carolina, they would be the NFC 4 seed. With a loss, and anything but a tie in the Falcons vs Saints game, they will be eliminated.
17. Cincinnati Bengals
Playoff probability: 0%
What’s at stake: Cincinnati won’t be able to pick lower than 11th even with a loss to the Browns and help.
16. Chicago Bears
Playoff probability: 0%
What’s at stake: With a loss to Green Bay and wins by 6 and 7 win teams, the Bears can pick as high as 8th. They’ll also have the top pick int he draft courtesy of Carolina.
15. Green Bay Packers
Playoff probability: 63%
What’s at stake: If the Packers win they are in the playoffs. Along with a Rams loss vs SF, they’d be the 6 seed. With a Rams win, they’d be the 7 seed. If the Packers lose, a Vikings win vs DET would eliminate them. There are three other unlikely but possible scenarios that would eliminate the Vikings.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers
Playoff probability: 86%
What’s at stake: After beating the Ravens, Pittsburgh will need a Jags and Bills win to miss the postseason. Any of the other three scenarios in those two games will give the Steelers either the 6 or 7 seed.
13. Indianapolis Colts
Playoff probability: 0%
What’s at stake: The Colts were eliminated from the playoffs with their loss to Houston last night.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars
Playoff probability: 24%
What’s at stake: With a win, Jacksonville will win the division and be the AFC 4 seed. With a loss, they are eliminated from the playoffs.
11. Houston Texans
Division probability: 76%
What’s at stake: The Texans have clinched wild card position, and can win the division with a Jaguars loss to the Titans.
10. Philadelphia Eagles
Division probability: 13%
What’s at stake: With a win and a Cowboys loss, the Eagles will be the #5 seed. With a Cowboys win or a loss, they will be the 5 seed.
9. Los Angeles Rams
6 seed probability: 61%
What’s at stake: With a win against SF, LA will be the 6 seed. With a loss and a Seattle win against Arizona, they will be the 7 seed. The Rams are resting their starters.
8. Miami Dolphins
Division probability: 46%
What’s at stake: With a win, Miami would be the 2 seed. With a loss, they would be the 6 seed.
7. Kansas City Chiefs
3 seed probability: 100%
What’s at stake: They will be the 3 seed regardless or week 18 results. Their game with the Chargers is the only game with no playoff implications.
6. Dallas Cowboys
2 seed probability: 85%
What’s at stake: With a win OR an Eagles, they’ll have the 2 seed. With a loss AND an Eagles win, they’ll be the 5 seed.
5. Cleveland Browns
5 seed probability: 100%
What’s at stake: Cleveland has clinched the AFC 5 seed.
4. Detroit Lions
2 seed probability: 4%
What’s at stake: To clinch the 2 seed, the Lions need a win and losses but he Eagles and the Cowboys. Any other result will give the Lions the 3 seed.
3. Buffalo Bills
Playoff probability: 90%
What’s at stake: With a win, Buffalo clinches the 2 seed. With a loss AND a Ravens win, they’d be either the 6th or 7th seed. With a loss and a Jaguars loss, they’d be the 7 seed. With a loss and a win by Jacksonville, Buffalo would miss the playoffs.
2. San Francisco 49ers
1 seed probability: 100%
What’s at stake: San Francisco has clinched the NFC 1 seed, and with a win, they can clinch a tie the best record in the NFL.
1. Baltimore Ravens
1 seed probability: 100%
What’s at stake: Baltimore has clinched the AFC 1 seed, and with a SF loss, can clinch the best record in the league.
