Week 4 Panel Picks: Dolphins and Cowboys Surprise Underdogs, London Got a Good One
Now we’re cooking. The panel was 78-41 last week, a nine game improvement from week 2, and a 19 game increase from week 1. Theo is back within one game of first place, going 13-4, and logging his second week-win of the year. Josh and Jackson, who needed bounce back weeks, did just that, going 12-5 a piece. Last week’s standouts—myself and Rahul—struggled; I went 10-7, and Rahul finished with a woeful 8-9 record in week 3. All things considered, the pack has tightened going into week 4. Let’s take a look at the standings.
Webb: 33-18
Theo: 32-19
George: 31-20
Ray: 30-21
Rahul: 28-23
Jackson: 26-25
Josh: 25-26
Primetime Games
Early Window
Late Window
Most alike picks: Ray and Theo picked the same result in 15 of the 16 games. This could bode well for Ray considering Theo’s performance last week.
Least alike picks: Josh and George picked 7 games differently. Miraculously, Josh has shown up in this category for all four editions of the panel picks so far.
Most upsets picked: Josh picked six upsets including a strange one; he locked the Giants.
Fewest upsets picked: Rahul picked just three upsets. He clearly is playing it safe after a poor week 3.
Most picks with the majority: Rahul picked with the majority in every game.
Most picks against the majority: George picked against the majority four times.
What Stands Out?
There are seven division games this weekend, and five of them were sweeps for the panel. It shows that when you see a matchup enough times (division rivals match up twice a year), the results sway fans all the way to one side of the scale or the other.
It’s either homerism or recency bias that is coming into play in the late window; the Patriots have five votes to the Cowboys’ two. It’s the only game so far all season with a spread of more than 7 points where the underdog receives more votes than the favorite.
George has a lot of opportunities to rise of the standings this week, but could just as easily slide from third to fifth. He was the only panelist to pick Green Bay and Miami, and was one of just two people to pick Dallas. Luckily for George, teams that only receive one vote are a surprising 4-3 so far this season.
The game of the week, Dolphins vs Bills, is more unbalanced on paper than we hope it will be on the field. Despite the 70 burger that Miami dropped on Denver last week, George was the only person to pick them. It’s a result of the Bills pedigree and experience, and the fact that they are averaging 37.5 PPG, and 6.5 PAPG in the last two weeks.
Two AFC North favorites, the Bengals and the Ravens, are 2.5 and 3 point dawgs, respectively. All bias aside, I cannot possibly understand why the Ravens are such heavy dogs against a team without their best player. For the Bengals, although Joe Burrow is banged up, they are still a top team in the league, facing a Titans squad that scored three points last week. Both Cincinnati and Baltimore swept across the panel, making it look like Vegas might’ve got it wrong.
Playoff Picture
Let’s pretend our majority pick in each matchup won this weekend. Here would be the playoff matchups on Wild Card Weekend if that were the case.
AFC
(1) Pittsburgh Steelers vs BYE | The last time Pittsburgh had a first round bye was in 2017 when they lost 45-42 to Jacksonville in the divisional round.
(2) Kansas City Chiefs vs (7) New England Patriots | In their last playoff meeting, New England beat Kansas City 37-31 in the 2019 AFC Championship game.
(3) Buffalo Bills vs (6) Miami Dolphins | This game would be Buffalo’s and Miami’s 6th meeting in two years.
(4) Indianapolis Colts vs (5) Baltimore Ravens | In 2012, the Ravens beat the Colts 24-9 in the 4 vs 5 game of the 2013 AFC Wild Card round.
NFC
(1) Philadelphia Eagles vs BYE | The Eagles had a first round bye last season, and lost 38-35 to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
(2) San Francisco 49ers vs (7) Green Bay Packers | San Francisco beat Green Bay 13-10 in the 2022 NFC divisional round.
(3) Detroit Lions vs (6) Atlanta Falcons | Detroit beat Atlanta 20-6 last week.
(4) New Orleans Saints vs (5) Seattle Seahawks | Seattle beat New Orleans 41-36 in the 4 vs 5 game of the 2011 NFC Wild Card round.
Stay tuned this weekend for my thoughts on the Damian Lillard trade!