Week 5 Panel Picks: NFC Powerhouses Big Favorites, Lots of Faith in Zach Wilson
Welcome to week 5 picks! I apologize for not being able to get this one out on time—it’s been a busy week. Power rankings will not be happening this week, but will be back next week. And before you get any theories, I promise I picked the Bears before their Thursday night romp of Washington.
Theo Randall is a genius. Or maybe he has won weeks 1, 2, and 4 because he is by far the safest picker on the panel. Thus far, his most daring pick has been the Browns over the Bengals in week 1 which resulted in a 24-3 for Cleveland.
Once again, the panel continues to improve, posting a record of 81-38 last week as a result of a low-upset week. Week 5 could be different. All four primetime games are closely contested, with the Packers vs Raiders game having the tightest spread of -1 for Green Bay. Several early window games are tough ones to picks as well, such as Patriots vs Saints, Falcons vs Texans, and Colts vs Titans. Finally, with lots of movement in the standings last week, let’s take a look at the updated version.
Theo: 45-23
Webb: 43-25
George: 43-25
Ray: 42-26
Rahul: 40-28
Jackson: 38-30
Josh: 35-33
Primetime Games
Early Window
Late Window
Most alike picks: Ray/Jackson, Jackson/Theo, and Theo/George all picked the sam result but one.
Last alike picks: Josh and I each picked differently from Rahul in 7 games this week. That’s half of the games—a good representation of Josh and I being by far the riskiest pickers this week.
Most upsets picked: I picked 6 upsets, including being the lone wolf on Chiefs vs Vikings.
Fewest upsets picked: Jackson only picked 2 upsets, and they were the two safest upset picks of the week (Jets, Texans)
Most picks with the majority: To no surprise, Theo picked with the majority every single time.
Fewest picks with the majority: Josh and I only picked with majority in 9 of the 14 contests.
What Stands Out?
Does Josh owe Brian Daboll money? He inexplicably locked the Giants against the Seahawks last week who sacked Jones 11 times in a 24-3 beatdown. So, what does Josh do when the Giants, whoa are last in DVOA and point differential, are 11 point dogs against the Dolphins, who have had the best offense in the league? He picks the Giants. There’s a reason Josh is in last place.'
The 49ers are an absolute buzzsaw. They are the only team that could possibly sweep the panel (including a lock) against an team who has outscored their opponents 108-13 in wins.
The Ravens have quietly had more faith from the panel than almost any other team. This is the fourth time in five weeks that they have swept, and none of those sweeps were against teams with losing records.
C.J. Stroud is the real deal. So far, Bryce Young is not. Stroud has taken a poor offensive unit from a year ago, and elevated them into a team that has five votes against a feisty Falcons squad. Young’s poor play makes this the fifth straight week where the Panthers are in the minority.
The panel is slowly losing faith in the Bengals. Even against a stubborn Tennessee team, everybody picked Cincinnati. But after the Titans downed the Bengals 27-3, both Ray and I are convinced the Cardinals—the 32nd team in the preseason power rankings—have what it takes to beat a limping Joe Burrow.
Playoff Picture (with Bears and Jaguars wins taken into account)
Let’s pretend our majority pick in each matchup won this weekend. Here would be the playoff matchups on Wild Card Weekend if that were the case.
AFC
(1) Kansas City Chiefs vs BYE | The last time the Chiefs had a bye was in 2022 when they won the Super Bowl.
(2) Baltimore Ravens vs (7) Buffalo Bills | The Bills beat the Ravens 17-3 in the 2021 Divisional Round.
(3) Miami Dolphins vs (6) Jacksonville Jaguars | The Jaguars beat the Dolphins 23-20 in week 6 of the 2021 season.
(4) Houston Texans vs (5) Tennessee Titans | The Texans beat the Titans 19-14 in week 16 of the 2022 season.
NFC
(1) Philadelphia Eagles vs BYE | The last time the Eagles had a bye was in 2022 when they reached the Super Bowl.
(2) San Francisco 49ers vs (7) New Orleans Saints | The 49ers beat the Saints 13-0 in week 12 of the 2022 season.
(3) Detroit Lions vs (6) Green Bay Packers | The Lions beat the Packers 34-20 in week 4 of this season.
(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs (5) Seattle Seahawks | The Buccaneers beat the Seahawks 21-16 in Munich in week 11 of the 2022 season.
yo victor what does it mean when a pick is highlighted green.