Week 6 Panel Picks: Bengals vs Seahawks the Game to Watch, Can the Bears Claw Back?
A wild week 5 created some problems for the panel—we posted an unimpressive record of 58-47 which is the second worse of any of our first five weeks. For more perspective, Adam Rank, who is known for mindlessly picking every regular season game for NFL.com, would have placed first on our panel in week 5 with a 10-4 record. To top it off, Ray’s week 5 was the worst since Josh and Jackson’s howlers in week 2.
Not all of us struggled though—George and Rahul both went 10-5, and despite fairly average weeks by our respective standards, Josh and I both picked the Bears and the Raiders results correctly. So, there is hope in week 6 that sees a slew of unbalanced primetime games, but a competitive afternoon slate including a few matchups between teams currently in playoff position. Here are the current standings, and the picks will follow. You know the drill at this point.
Primetime Games
Early Window
Late Window
Most alike picks: As I’ll elude to later, George and Theo only picked one game differently.
Least alike picks: Josh picked differently from Theo on 7 of his picks. Theo is first, and Josh is last. Sounds about right.
Most upsets picked: Josh, Rahul, and Jackson all picked 5 upsets.
Fewest upsets picked: Theo, Ray, and I each picked 2 upsets. Evidently, George is nothing special.
Most picks with majority: Josh has overtaken Jackson as the riskiest (perhaps most illogical) panelist, and as a result, picked 4 games against the majority, along with Rahul.
Most picks against majority: Ray only picked once against the majority. Outside of his blind devotion to the Patriots, Ray has quietly been one of the safest pickers on the panel.
What Stands Out?
Josh is single-handedly sabotaging himself by picking the Giants every week. He picked them over Seattle, and the Seahawks essentially urged Josh to never pick New York again by sacking Daniel Jones 11 times. Josh proceeded to pick the Giants against the Dolphins. They were trounced in a 19 point loss. Now, he seems to be aimlessly picking the team with the worst DVOA in the entire league—he chose the Giants against the Bills this week despite them being 14.5 point underdogs. This is turning into a weekly narrative, and if Josh doesn’t stop soon, he will be buying a one-way ticket to Connecticut (part of the punishment for the loser that will revealed in video form in some time).
Bengals vs Seahawks has game of the week written all over it. 1) There is uncertainty about which version of Cincinnati will come to play. 2) At their best, these are two top-10 teams—something we don’t have in other game this week aside from Cowboys vs Chargers, and that’s a maybe. 3) This is a game with lots of playoff implications, particularly for Cincy, who need to gain some ground in the AFC North, and elevate themselves back into a playoff position.
This week’s picks are further affirmation that there are the Eagles and the Niners, and then there is everyone else. To be fair to Dallas, Detroit, and Seattle, they aren’t far behind, but I’d bet the house on the Eagles vs 49ers meeting again in the NFC Championship. Clearly, the panel agrees.
Saints vs Texans, Falcons vs Commanders, and Pats vs Raiders make week 6 one of the toughest of the whole year. Not only are these games difficult to pick because the teams are similar in strength—each of them came down to a 4-3 vote—but every one of those teams has shown major ups and downs this season, making it impossible to predict what version of them will come out this Sunday. Bears vs Vikings, Bucs vs Lions, and of course, Bengals vs Seahawks were also 4-3 votes.
Falcons vs Commanders is the sneaky most important game for the panel this week. As you saw in the standings, George and Theo are deadlocked in first place. This game is the only result they picked differently this week, so whoever picks the winning outcome will likely be in first place going into week 7 (I have an outside chance of leaping into first place). This game has major implications.
Playoff Picture
Let’s pretend our majority pick in each matchup won this weekend. Here would be the playoff matchups on Wild Card Weekend if that were the case.
AFC
(1) Kansas City Chiefs vs BYE | This would the 5th time in 6 seasons that Kansas City obtained the 1 seed in the AFC.
(2) Miami Dolphins vs (7) Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis beat Miami 27-17 in week 4 of the 2021 season.
(3) Baltimore Ravens vs (6) Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh beat Baltimore 17-10 last week.
(4) Jacksonville Jaguars vs (5) Buffalo Bills | Jacksonville beat Buffalo 25-20 last week.
NFC
(1) San Francisco 49ers vs BYE | The 49ers have not had a first round bye since 2019.
(2) Philadelphia Eagles vs (7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia 31-15 in the NFC wild card round.
(3) Detroit Lions vs (6) Dallas Cowboys | Dallas beat Detroit 24-6 in week 6 last season.
(4) Atlanta Falcons vs (5) Seattle Seahawks | Atlanta beat Seattle 27-23 in week 3 last season.
Thanks for reading. Stay tuned for a podcast with special guest George Constable.