Week 7 Panel Picks
Last week felt like a must-win week for the panel and with our backs against the wall, we pulled off the improbable—a 92-28 record which is the highest win percentage in the panel’s 31-week history.
Shoutout to Ray who spearheaded the operation with an all-time best record of 14-1. Six panelists went either 12-3 or 11-4 including Jackson who is above .500 for the first time all season. Take a deep breath Stoner.
There were some significant leaps and drops in the standings, too. Rahul continued his ascendence up the rankings while Ray rose two spots into 3rd place. I fell from 2nd to 4th despite a good week and Ben slid from 3rd to 6th. Here are the full ATA standings.
Week seven has a five course meal of marquee matchups on the menu.
The two best teams in the NFC, the Vikings and Lions, face off in a crucial battle for first place in the NFC North. Their division rival hosts the Texans up in chilly Green Bay in a spicy inter-conference matchup. The entrée is a Super Bowl rematch between Kansas City and San Francisco at 4:25 that promises to come down to the wire. That night, the Davante Adams era in New York begins as the Jets travel to Pittsburgh for a virtual must-win game and the Bucs host the Ravens on Monday night in a battle of good looking 4-2 teams.
That’s not to discredit the ten other games either. Each game this week has a fascinating storyline or features one team in desperate need for a win (yes, I consider Spencer Rattler’s second start a fascinating storyline). Here’s how the panel picked week seven.
Primetime Games
Early Window
Late Window
Most alike picks: Ray and George only picked one game differently (Texans vs Packers).
Least alike picks: For the second straight week, Theo and Ben have the most opposing picks with eight.
Most upsets picked: Josh swung for the fences this week by picking eight upsets.
Fewest upsets picked: Jackson, Rahul, and Theo all each picked just three upsets.
Most picks with majority: Ray and I were in the majority for 13 of the 15 games.
Most picks against majority: Josh, Jackson, and Ben were all against the majority four times.
What Stands Out?
We can’t talk about this week’s games without addressing the headliner—a Super Bowl LVIII rematch between the Chiefs and the 49ers. The Chiefs are yet to lose through their first five games while the Niners stumbled out of the gate and currently sit at 3-3. The panel seems to have factored this season’s start in and has given the Chiefs a 6-2 advantage.
Just by the eye test, week seven is the most competitive week of the year so far. There are five primetime games this week and all of the ten teams received at least two votes. There are three terrific games in the early window (HOU vs GB, DET vs MIN, and ATL vs SEA) that all have point spreads of 2.5 and panel votes of 5-3. Hopefully, we bounce back from last week with some close games.
This is the second week that the Commanders are receiving locks. I locked them up in week five and George, Jackson, and Ben all locked them this week. Since we like to compare Daniels to last year’s second overall pick C.J. Stroud, I looked back at last year’s picks and found that nobody locked the Texans until week 14.
Of all divisions to have every team be favored in the panel votes, the AFC South probably doesn’t come to mind first, but while the Titans are on bye, the Texans, Colts, and Jaguars all received the majority of votes in their matchups. The Colts were just one of three teams to sweep the vote. Are the Dolphins really that bad?
Last week, Josh surpassed Theo in the standings and now has a one-game lead on him. This wouldn’t be notable except for the fact that Josh loathed Theo throughout all of last season for his extremely conservative picking style and talked some smack in the ATA group chat after the weekly standings were released. The underdogs are hitting more often this year and that means Josh is hitting more often. The Chargers and the Eagles—two favorites that Theo picked and Josh didn’t pick should be on upset alert this week.
Playoff Picture
Let’s pretend our majority pick in each matchup won this weekend. Here are the projected playoff matchups on Wild Card Weekend.
AFC
(1) Kansas City Chiefs vs BYE | Kansas City was last the one seed in 2022.
(2) Houston Texans vs (7) Indianapolis Colts | Houston defeated Indianapolis 29-27 in week one.
(3) Baltimore Ravens vs (6) Pittsburgh Steelers | Baltimore and Pittsburgh clash in weeks 12 and 16 this season.
(4) Buffalo Bills vs (5) Los Angeles Chargers | Buffalo beat Los Angeles 24-22 in week 16 last season.
NFC
(1) Detroit Lions vs BYE | The Lions have never finished the season as the one seed in their franchise’s history.
(2) Atlanta Falcons vs (7) Philadelphia Eagles | Atlanta defeated Philadelphia 22-21 in week two of this season.
(3) Washington Commanders vs (6) Chicago Bears | This game would be a quarterback battle of the top two picks in this season’s draft.
(4) San Francisco 49ers vs (5) Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota has beaten San Francisco is back-to-back regular seasons.