What If He Were a Knick?
OK. All the talk about Donovan Mitchell during the last few days has been about his other-worldly talent and his takeover ability. About how much the Jazz are missing him this season. About how grateful the Cavaliers should be to have a star like Spida. After all, he did just become the first player in NBA history with 70 points and 10 assists, all while willing his team to an inspiring overtime victory over the Bulls. But remember, in the offseason, when it seemed like a sure deal that Mitchell was going to the Knicks? Even after being traded to Cleveland, Mitchell, in his introductory press conference said this about what he thought his likely destination would be.
“Like I said, I thought it was New York, I’m not gonna lie to you. You know, obviously, who doesn’t want to be home next to mom? I haven’t lived at home since I was like an eighth grader, been at boarding school, and that would have been nice.”
Of Mitchell’s potential landing spots, The Knicks also had the most unprotected picks, as well as a healthy collection of good young players.
Today, we’re going to pretend that Donovan Mitchell was traded to his hometown, and analyze what the Knicks would look like with him.
First, we need to look at the package that the Knicks would send to Utah in exchange for Mitchell.
The Jazz offered Mitchell to New York for third-year player, RJ Barrett, second-year man, Quentin Grimes, and a slew of unprotected first-round picks. The Knicks turned it down. This would be New York’s projected depth chart if they accepted the trade.
Let’s start with the backcourt of Jalen Brunson—a current 20 PPG scorer—and Mitchell. Brunson, ever since he came out of Villanova, has been one of the smartest, most unselfish guards in the league. Mitchell, who also plays a smart game, is generally the primary ballhandler wherever he goes. Historically, this is a comibination that has worked well. Take Chris Paul and Devin Booker. They dominated the league for much of their first two years together with Paul’s passing ability, and Booker’s attacking mentality. Derek Fisher and Kobe Bryant were the same way en route to 5 rings. Go back a little farther, and you’ve got Mark Jackson, who is one of just seven players in the 10K assists club, paired with Reggie Miller who is a top three shooter of all time, but also liked to put the ball on the floor. One more: Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan on the 1992 USA “Dream Team.”
“Magic's passing and Michael's finishing would be good enough to beat any team from any era.” —Bleacher Report
That’s not all Brunson and Mitchell bring to the table, though. Brunson is a slower, more methodical guard, and Mitchell likes to move at lightning-quick speed, and is one of the most explosive players in the NBA. It’s no surprise that you can find successful duos in that department as well. Jaylen Brown is quick, and likes to get out in transition, while Jayson Tatum is more deliberate in his attack, and uses his talent to work past defenders. Bradley Beal and John Wall, if it weren’t for the Splash Brothers, would have been the top backcourt in the leage for several years of their primes. Even Russell Westbrook’s violent speed, and James Harden’s snail’s pace conjured up an NBA finals run with the help of Kevin Durant in OKC.
As their success with other guards in their careers, Mitchell, is excelling alongside Darius Garland in Cleveland. And don’t forget that when the Jazz added Mike Conley to pair Mitchell, the Jazz finished 1st in the Western Conference. Brunson, meanwhile, had success playing next to the ball-dominant Luka Doncic in Dallas, putting up 16, 5, and 4 on efficient shooting in his final year in the Big D. So, it’s safe to say that Brunson and Mitchell have the tools and potential to gel as the league’s best backcourt. If you think that’s an exaggeration, go through every backcourt in the league You’ll see.
Of course, there is the void created by RJ Barrett’s role in the trade, but, although Barrett is averaging 20 points per game, his 43/33/76 splits, and negative offensive and defensive efficiency, and are simply not good enough, and have often bogged down New York when they need him most. Cam Reddish on the other hand, is improving rapidly in his increased role off the bench. With some more floor time, he could develop into a solid 10 PPG scorer. However, Reddish is still a developing shooter, hitting his shots at the same rate as Barrett. Not too much difference there outside of experience and volume.
Now, how about Julius Randle? Two years ago, he was a 24-point per game scorer, averaged 10 boards, and 6 assists per game and made the All-NBA second team. Last year, he took a major step backwards, as he was one of the most inefficient shooters in the whole league, and looked worn down by the season’s end. This season, Randle is averaging 24, 10, and 4, and has increased his field goal and 3-point percentages from last year, by 5.2% and 3.4%, respectively. The reason? Brunson has got him grooving again. Since Brunson brings the ball up on most plays, Randle can excel in the off-ball offensive role, getting better looks, and averaging his lowest number of turnovers since 2016. Trading for Mitchell, who, as we mentioned, has been the go-to guy on offense for his whole career, would only increase this role for Randle.
As for Mitchell Robinson, most of his production comes from cleaning up on the glass, and being a tower in the paint on defense. The worry with Robinson is that Donovan Mitchell doesn’t bring size, nor defense prowess (although he is improving). In Utah, we all remember when Terrence Mann closed out the Jazz with a 39 point performance, with the formula being, drag Rudy Gobert out to the perimeter because he can’t defend out there. Thus, Donovan defending on the perimeter could cause some concern for the Knicks. However, though Robinson has a similar build to Gobert, Robinson is more dynamic and far more athletic, and would be able to maintain his role in New York with Donovan.
One concern: he bench after the hypothetical Mitchell trade is a bit thin. It features Immanuel Quickley, Miles McBride, Obi Toppin, and Isaiah Hartenstein—all young players.
Year One Projection: 50-32
After what I believe would be a successful year one, New York would have the ability to make a splash in the offseason. Derrick Rose is lined up to make $15.6M next year, but his contract is a team option, which the Knicks will likely decline. Losing Ryan Arcidiacono and Svi Mykhailiuk would do virtually no harm, and would net the Knicks $4.3M. Cam Reddish is where things get interesting. He has a player option in 2023, and if he accepts, and chooses to stay with New York, he would make $8.1M next year. If not, he would become a free agent resulting in a total of $28M opening up for the Knicks, which would be enough to sign an quality player (ideally a small forward). Candidates could include Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Caris LeVert, and maybe, just maybe, Draymond Green. One of these players could be paired with Brunson, Mitchell, Randle, and Robinson, putting the Knicks as a dark horse for the championship.
Year 2 Projection: 55-27
Two more things the Knicks would have going for them with this projected lineup:
Nobody (except for potential targets, Barnes and Green) is in the twilight of their career. It’s a relatively young starting 5, but one with plenty of playoff experience.
Mitchell’s max contract is not wildly expensive. He’s only scheduled to make $33M next year—a rather meager portion in comparison to other stars around the league.
Now then. All of this is not to say that the New York would be guaranteed to win or would be shoe-in to sign a big free agent if Mitchell was a Knick. And, of course, there is the reality that the Knicks would have sacrificed their future in a trade for Mitchell, plus the fact that New York’s front office has been perhaps the most infamous front office in all of sports in the last decade. But wouldn’t this be fun? Spida is a human highlight reel, and in the Garden, he could become an icon. He gives the kind of hope that if a couple things went right for the Knicks, they could be contending in no time. For now, though, as Knicks fans have done for so long, they can only imagine.