What If Ray Allen Missed?
Several careers changed on the night of June 18th, 2013—the night that the Miami Heat forced a game 7 against the long-standing dynasty that was the San Antonio Spurs. The game, coined by many as the greatest game ever, ended with a powerful Chris Bosh rejection as Danny Green attempted the game-tying three-pointer as time expired in overtime. However, it doesn’t take a basketball genius to know that this legendary NBA Finals contest will be remembered for one shot and one shot only.
When Ray Allen sunk the game-tying three-pointer with 5.2 seconds remaining in Game 6, legacies were born, killed, saved, and damaged, all at once. And when a moment with this much impact happens, the first think I think about after running around my house in shock (family room to kitchen to dining room to living room to kitchen, and back to family room) is, what if it never happened?
What if Ray Allen’s shot clanked off the side of the rim? What if he didn’t step far enough behind the line? What if Chris Bosh never collected the offensive rebound off of LeBron James’ three-point miss? Or if Tony Parker hit the fallaway floater at the end of regulation? Let’s try to answer some of those questions.
I have Tim Duncan slotted as the 9th greatest player of all time behind Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Wilt Chamberlain, Kobe Bryant, Magic Johnson, Bill Russell, and Shaquille O’Neal. But if Duncan captured a 6th title and a 4th Finals MVP in the 2013 Finals, I think he’d pass O’Neal, Russell, Johnson, and perhaps even Bryant.
It’s almost too close to call. Either way, Duncan has a serious case for being a top-5 player of all time instead of the fringe top-10 treatment that he gets without the 2013 championship.
Worse yet for Duncan, he was taken out of the game on the possession when Allen his the three. Many analysts and fans believe that Chris Bosh never would have gotten the offensive rebound if Duncan was in the game.
But when the Ray Allen shot is brought up, Duncan’s legacy is rarely the one talked about. That’s LeBron James—who, without the 2013 Finals would be tied for 16th all-time in combined NBA championships and Finals MVP’s. With the 2013 Finals, James is 6th. Sure, James will always be regarded as one of the greatest pure basketball players ever, but legacies are built in the first two weeks of June. Not only would James have just half of Michael Jordan’s championships, but he would also have a Finals record of 3-7—probably the worst at such a large volume outside of Elgin Baylor (0-7) and Jerry West (1-9). Allen’s shot, which helped total James’ championships to four, seems to sweep James’ subpar Finals record under the rug. The shot echoes further than just 2013 though. Without that ring, does James feel satisfied enough with his hardware collection in Miami to head back to Cleveland? How does that impact the extent of success that the Warriors dynasty has? I could go on and on.
Rockets vs Warriors Game 7
Five years ago, the Warriors were at the height of their dynasty. They were coming off of a championship in 2017 with the greatest half-court offense in NBA history at their fingertips. However, in 2018, Golden State had met their challenger in the Houston Rockets, who made and attempted the most three-pointers of any team in NBA history. Houston had been unwavering all season, losing just 17 games, and winning its first two playoff series’ 4-1. Houston had taken a 3-2 lead in the conference finals, and look poised to finally knock the Warriors off the throne of the western conference and three-point shooting. But in game 7, something so mathematically improbable happened, that you have to see it to believe it.
The odds of this are incredibly slim. 1 in 118757 in fact. The Rockets lost this game by 9 points, meaning they only needed three of those long-distance shots to go down. Based on their 36.2% 3-point shooting clip during the 2017-2018 season, the probability of the Rockets making fewer than 3 of those 27 three-balls is 1 in 1449. To show how unlikely a game like this was to occur, here are 15 worst 3-point shooting percentages by the Rockets in that season.
Long-story short: In the Rockets 99th and final game of the year, they had by far their worst shooting game. It was so bad that the gap between games 1 and 2 was larger than the gap between games 2 and 15. Now, let’s look at the worst 3-point shooting percentages in a game by any team with at least 30 attempts during the 2017-2018 season.
Out of 2,626 team performances that season, the team that lived and died by the three posted the 4th worst three-point shooting mark in the franchise’s most important game in 23 years.
But what if this dominant shooting team just got three darn three-pointers to fall? First of all, James Harden and Chris Paul would have championship rings, because there is not a chance that LeBron James and his supporting cast of plumbers could have tested the juggernaut that the Rockets were. This probably means that Harden and Paul wouldn’t be jumping from team to team every year.
Houston would have kept the core together, and with one more year before Kevin Durant’s departure, the Warriors dynasty could have ended multiple years early. Curry, Thompson, and Green’s legacies would be slightly hindered. With Harden likely staying in Houston, the Nets’ failure of a super-team experiment probably wouldn’t have happened, and the entire East landscape would be completely different. As for the west, who knows where Russell Westbrook would have ended up, because the Rockets wouldn’t have packaged Chris Paul and draft picks to Oklahoma City for him. Speaking of Paul, Phoenix wouldn’t have acquired him in the 2020 offseason and would still be trying to make their first NBA Finals. Does this mean the Clippers would have tasted the Finals in 2021? Could they have beaten the Bucks? Or would Houston reign over the western conference for years? Who knows. That’s the thing with these what if’s—you just never know.
Here’s one thing I am sure of though. Win or lose in that game 7, the Rockets helped create the blueprint for future champions. They showed the rest of the league that they could knock off the best team ever with three-point shooting. Houston set a new record that year for most three-pointers made in a season with 1,256. All they needed was 3 more.
KD’s Size 18 Shoes
Here’s a list of NBA players with a larger shoe size than Kevin Durant. Andre Drummond, Kevin Love, Robin Lopez, Brook Lopez, Boban Marjanovic, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Victor Wembanyama, Jusuf Nurkic, and Tacko Fall. Just ten players. Sure, part of what comes with Durant’s greatness is his unguardable height. And with height comes big feet. Still, get this. The length of a size 18 shoe is 13.33 inches. A size 15 shoe, which is about the league average, is a full inch shorter.
What if Kevin Durant had averaged sized feet instead of his monstrous size 18’s? What if Wanda Durant, Kevin’s 6-foot mother, was a few inches shorter and had smaller feet? What if Durant caught the inbound pass an inch further away from the basket than he did? What if P.J. Tucker played 1% more physical on Durant as he tried to drive to the hoop with no avail? What if, what if, what if.
Let’s live in a world where this clutch game-tying shot by KD is a three-pointer, giving the Nets a 110-109 lead with a second left. Based on the Bucks actual game-winning attempt (a Giannis baseline fadeaway that hit the side of the backboard), the Nets would have won the series, and been heavy favorites against Atlanta and Phoenix. Once again, Harden’s legacy would be lifted tremendously with the illusive championship that he lacks, making me wonder: is he one of the unluckiest players ever? And Durant would have proven that he can win without joining a 73-9 team.
On the other side of things, Giannis Antetokounmpo would still be ringless, and likely carry a label somewhere along the lines of “biggest playoff choker.” After all, outside of 2021, Antetokounmpo lost in the first round, second round, and conference finals as a 1 seed, and the second round once as a 3 seed. Maybe the Bucks would have traded Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton in attempt to shake things up a little bit.
The important what if about this moment, though, has nothing to do with either franchise. Milwaukee’s 115-111 defeat of Brooklyn in that game 7 was the first step to the fade of super-teams.
My definition of a super-team: a group of at least three all-star players that join forces by means of free agency or a trade request.
Midway through the following season, the Nets would break up the greatest big 3 on paper in NBA history, and front offices would begin to learn from Brooklyn’s catastrophe—you don’t win games on paper. In the nine years prior to this game, super-teams won championships in 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, and 2018. The three champions after Kevin Durant’s 23.8 foot two-point shot were all home-grown teams centered around one star—Milwaukee, Golden State, and Denver.
Basketball truly is a game of margins. If a few Rockets three-pointers had a couple more inches of distance, they might have ended the Warriors dynasty. If KD stepped an inch further back, the Nets might be a dynasty of their own, and super-teams might rule the league today. Both of these things can be said about Ray Allen’s shot. The NBA comes down to a lot less than we think, and while the past is already written, it’s interesting to think about how easily NBA history could be completely flipped.
Stay tuned for today’s second article where I will unveil part 3 of the city sports rankings.