Which Team Has the Best Championship Blueprint?
Winning a championship isn’t all about the players. Sure, they’re the ones that fight for every one of their 16 postseason wins en route to the Larry O’Brien trophy, but much of the responsibility falls on the front office. It’s hard to win a ring with one other-worldly talent and a bunch of role players. Just ask LeBron James, who, in 2007 and 2018, dragged the Cavaliers to the Finals despite the second-best players on each team being Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Kevin Love. Neither averaged over 20 PPG in their time in Cleveland. It’s also hard to win a ring with a collection of solid players but no stars. Since 1984 (the start of the salary cap era), every championship team had at least one all-star, and only nine teams have ever won a championship without an All-NBA first-team player. Think about that. 75% of NBA champions since 1984 have had a top 5 player in the league. The 2004 Pistons are the only team in recent memory who won with a truly balanced group. But even Ben Wallace was an all-star that season. So, if your best player isn’t in that exclusive All-NBA club, you almost have no chance. But as we know from James’ trips to the Finals, it takes a lot more than one great player. Tough to find the perfect balance, right?
This is all to say that building the blueprint to win a championship is an extremely difficult and precise process. You need superstars, all-star level players, strong role players, veterans, young players, and obviously, guys who will flow well together. So, to figure out who has the best shot this season, let’s examine the last 15 champions.
2008 Celtics (66-16)
Kevin Garnett: 18.8 / 9.2 / 3.5 / All-NBA First Team
Paul Pierce: 19.6 / 5.1 / 4.5 / All-NBA Third Team
Ray Allen: 17.4 / 3.7 / 3.1 / All-Star
Rajon Rondo: 10.6 / 4.2 / 5.1
2009 Lakers (65-17)
Kobe Bryant: 26.8 / 5.2 / 4.9 / All-NBA First Team
Pau Gasol: 18.9 / 9.6 / 3.5 / All-NBA Third Team
Andrew Bynum: 14.3 / 8.0 / 1.4
Lamar Odom: 11.3 / 8.2 / 2.6
2010 Lakers (57-25)
Kobe Bryant: 27.0 / 5.4 / 5.0 / All-NBA First Team
Pau Gasol: 18.3 / 11.3 / 3.4 / All-NBA Third Team
Andrew Bynum: 15.0 / 8.3 / 1.0
Lamar Odom: 10.8 / 9.8 / 3.3
2011 Mavericks (57-25)
Dirk Nowitzki: 23.0 / 7.0 / 2.6 / All-NBA Second Team
Jason Terry: 15.8 / 1.9 / 4.1
Caron Butler: 15.0 / 4.1 / 1.6
Jason Kidd: 7.8 / 4.4 / 8.2
2012 Heat (46-20) - (57-25 pace)
LeBron James: 27.1 / 7.9 / 6.2 / All-NBA First Team / League MVP
Dwyane Wade: 22.1 / 4.8 / 4.6 / All-NBA Third Team
Chris Bosh: 18.0 / 7.9 / 1.8 / All-Star
Mario Chalmers: 9.8 / 2.7 / 3.5
2013 Heat (66-16)
LeBron James: 26.8 / 8.0 / 7.3 / All-NBA First Team / League MVP
Dwyane Wade: 21.2 / 5.0 / 5.1 / All-NBA Third Team
Chris Bosh: 16.6 / 6.8 / 1.7 / All-Star
Ray Allen: 10.9 / 2.7 / 2.7
2014 Spurs (62-20)
Tony Parker: 16.7 / 2.3 / 5.7 / All-NBA Second Team
Tim Duncan: 15.1 / 9.7 / 3.0
Kawhi Leonard: 12.8 / 6.2 / 2.0
Manu Ginóbili: 12.3 / 3.0 / 4.3
2015 Warriors (67-15)
Stephen Curry: 23.8 / 4.3 / 7.7 / All-NBA First Team / League MVP
Klay Thompson: 21.7 / 3.2 / 2.9 / All-NBA Third Team
Draymond Green: 11.7 / 8.2 / 3.7
Harrison Barnes: 10.1 / 5.5 / 4.1
2016 Cavaliers (57-25)
LeBron James: 25.3 / 7.4 / 6.8 / All-NBA First Team
Kyrie Irving: 19.6 / 3.0 / 4.7
Kevin Love: 16.0 / 9.9 / 2.4
J.R. Smith: 12.4 / 2.8 / 1.7
2017 Warriors (67-15)
Kevin Durant: 25.1 / 8.3 / 4.8 / All-NBA Second Team
Stephen Curry: 25.3 / 4.5 / 6.6 / All-NBA Second Team
Draymond Green: 10.2 / 7.9 / 7.0 / All-NBA Third Team
Klay Thompson: 22.3 / 3.7 / 2.1 / All-Star
2018 Warriors (58-24)
Kevin Durant: 26.4 / 6.8 / 5.4 / All-NBA First Team
Stephen Curry: 26.4 / 5.1 / 6.1 / All-NBA Third Team
Klay Thompson: 20.0 / 3.8 / 2.5 / All-Star
Draymond Green: 11.0 / 7.6 / 7.3 / All-Star
2019 Raptors (58-24)
Kawhi Leonard: 26.6 / 7.3 / 3.3 / All-NBA Second Team
Kyle Lowry: 14.2 / 4.8 / 8.7 / All-Star
Pascal Siakam: 16.9 / 6.9 / 3.1
Serge Ibaka: 15.0 / 8.1 / 1.3
2020 Lakers (52-19) - (60-22 pace)
LeBron James: 25.3 / 7.8 / 10.2 / All-NBA First Team
Anthony Davis: 26.1 / 9.3 / 3.2 / All-NBA First Team
Kyle Kuzma: 12.8 / 4.5 / 1.3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 9.3 / 2.1 / 1.6
2021 Bucks (46-26) - (52-30 pace)
Giannis Antetokounmpo: 28.1 / 11.0 / 5.9 / All-NBA First Team
Khris Middleton: 20.4 / 6.0 / 5.4
Jrue Holiday: 17.7 / 4.5 / 6.1
Brook Lopez: 12.3 / 5.0 / 0.7
2022 Warriors (53-29)
Stephen Curry: 25.5 / 5.2 / 6.3 / All-NBA Second Team
Andrew Wiggins: 17.2 / 4.5 / 2.2 / All-Star
Klay Thompson: 20.4 / 3.9 / 2.8
Jordan Poole: 18.5 / 3.4 / 4.0
Alright. Those are the cores of each championship team from 2008 to 2022. May I add that while Draymond Green only averaged 7.5 points last season, he was also an all-star for Golden State. Whether or not he deserved it is a different story. Now, let’s get down to business and figure out which 2023 team has the most alike roster to these teams.
Requirement #1
First, let’s get the obvious out of the way, and eliminate teams that are literally trying to lose, or that are clearly not good enough. Under this category fall the Hornets, Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs. In the not-good-enough category, we find the Pacers and Magic. You’d think I’d eliminate more teams, but just remember that the Celtics were in 11th place at about the midway point in the season last year, so I’m not taking any chances.
Requirement #2
That leaves us with 24 squads. Let’s point out the obvious. Each of these 15 championship teams had at least one player on the first or second All-NBA team, and 11 of the 15 had one on the First Team (I included the 2017 Warriors here because Durant and Curry are both first-team fit). So, you’ve got to have a player on your squad who's having a top 10 season, but we’ll create a margin of error of two and say top 12 because you never really know with the voters.
Best Player for Every Remaining Team
Hawks: Trae Young (26.7 / 2.9 / 10.2)
Celtics: Jayson Tatum (30.6 / 8.6 / 4.5)
Nets: Spencer Dinwiddie (17.7 / 3.1 / 5.3)
Bulls: DeMar DeRozan (25.4 / 4.7 / 5.1)
Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell (27.3 / 4.1 / 4.9)
Mavericks: Luka Doncic (33.3 / 8.8 / 8.1)
Nuggets: Nikola Jokic (24.7 / 11.5 / 10.1)
Warriors: Stephen Curry (29.4 / 6.3 / 6.4)
Clippers: Kawhi Leonard (22.1 / 6.2 / 4.0)
Lakers: LeBron James (30.0 / 8.4 / 7.0)
Grizzlies: Ja Morant (27.3 / 6.0 / 8.3)
Heat: Jimmy Butler (21.7 / 6.1 / 5.0)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.8 / 12.2 / 5.4)
T-Wolves: Anthony Edwards (24.9 / 5.9 / 4.5)
Pelicans: Zion Williamson (26.0 / 7.0 / 4.6)
Knicks: Julius Randle (24.8 / 10.8 / 4.1)
Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30.8 / 4.7 / 5.7)
76ers: Joel Embiid (33.1 / 10.2 / 4.1)
Suns: Kevin Durant (29.7 / 6.7 / 5.3)
Blazers: Damian Lillard (31.4 / 4.3 / 7.3)
Kings: Domantas Sabonis (18.8 / 12.3 / 6.9)
Raptors: Pascal Siakam (25.2 / 7.8 / 6.1)
Jazz: Lauri Markkanen (25.2 / 8.6 / 1.8)
Wizards: Bradley Beal (23.1 / 3.5 / 5.2)
Eliminated:
Nets. After the trade deadline saga that saw Brooklyn trade away Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the Nets have no clear-cut leader and no one near top-12 quality.
Knicks. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are just barely on the outside looking in, in terms of potential top-12 quality seasons. It seems unfair because they’re much better than the other three eliminated teams, but give New York one more year, and they’ll still be in the conversation deep into the article.
Jazz. Lauri Markkanen is a great talent, and has improved his scoring from 14.8 PPG to 25.2 PPG, but is not quite at the level of being able to take over games and will his team to victory on a nightly basis.
Wizards. Washington is a very interesting case, as they are the only team with three 21 PPG scorers with Bradley Beal (23.1), Kristaps Porzingis (22.8), and Kyle Kuzma (21.4). However, with all three guys having top-30 level seasons, not one of them has elevated themself into the top-12 conversation yet this season.
Requirement #3
As you saw from the last 15 championship teams, no player wins a ring alone. There is an overwhelming theme of All-NBA third-team players being the second-best player on a championship team. There were seven examples of this. Add in Draymond Green achieving third-team honors behind Curry and Durant, Kyrie Irving, whose injury in the 2015-2016 season derailed him from any chance at All-NBA, and Khris Middleton, who played like a top-20 player for the league’s best squad in the 2020-2021 season, and you have 10 of the 15 teams following the All-NBA First Team player plus the All-NBA Third Team player blueprint. The second-best players on the other 5 teams were Hall-of-Famers, Jason Kidd and Tim Duncan, future Hall-of-Famer, Klay Thompson, all-time Raptors win shares leader, Kyle Lowry, and top-tier talent, Anthony Davis. Therefore, it seems fair to say that this year’s field must contain a quality second option (somewhere in the 10-20 range depending on who the first option is).
Each Remaining Team’s Second Best Player
Hawks: Dejounte Murray (20.7 / 5.5 / 6.1)
Celtics: Jaylen Brown (26.5 / 7.0 / 3.2)
Bulls: Zach Lavine (24.0 / 4.9 / 4.1)
Cavaliers: Darius Garland (21.7 / 2.7 / 8.0)
Mavericks: Kyrie Irving (27.1 / 5.1 / 5.3)
Nuggets: Jamal Murray (20.2 / 4.1 / 5.8)
Warriors: Klay Thompson (21.4 / 3.9 / 3.5)
Clippers: Paul George (23.2 / 6.1 / 5.2)
Lakers: Anthony Davis (26.0 / 12.3 / 2.5)
Grizzlies: Desmond Bane (21.5 / 4.9 / 4.2)
Heat: Bam Adebayo (21.6 / 10.0 / 3.3)
Bucks: Jrue Holiday (19.4 / 5.2 / 7.1)
T-Wolves: Karl-Anthony Towns (20.8 / 8.2 / 5.3)
Pelicans: Brandon Ingram (22.4 / 5.0 / 4.9)
Thunder: Josh Giddey (16.3 / 7.8 / 5.9)
76ers: James Harden (21.4 / 6.2 / 10.8)
Suns: Devin Booker (26.6 / 4.5 / 5.5)
Blazers: Anfernee Simons (21.4 / 2.7 / 4.2)
Kings: De’Aaron Fox (24.8 / 4.3 / 6.2)
Raptors: Fred Vanvleet (19.7 / 4.3 / 6.6)
Eliminated:
Thunder. Giddey is a rising star in the league but still sits around the 50th-best player mark, and doesn’t give Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enough help to make the Thunder a serious dark horse for the title.
Blazers. Though Simons puts up points, he is relatively inefficient and still has quite a bit of work to do on the defensive end. He’s not ready to be second-in-command on a Damian Lillard-led championship team.
Sidenote: While Thompson, and VanVleet may not be having All-NBA caliber seasons, the combination of options outside of Curry and Siakam was enough to put them past requirement #3 (Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole for GSW, and Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby for TOR).
Requirement #4
I know I just said I’m not taking any chances on eliminating teams that may have losing records right now, but you’ve got to have built some type of a winning formula by early March. Even the Celtics, who I mentioned before, got going at the start of January. Plus, every championship team from 2008 to 2022 won at a pace of at least 52 games. So, let’s discard a few teams that haven’t been able to consistently stack wins this season even when fully healthy.
Eliminated:
Hawks. They are what their record says they are. Mediocre. Sitting at 31-31, Atlanta has found no rhythm with their retooled squad, and just fired Nate McMillan which should only lead to more problems. Not championship prepared.
Bulls. They’ve got one of the better rosters in the league, but have found zero rhythm offensively, and now, with Chicago sitting at 26-33 on a six-game skid, it feels right to eliminate them from championship contention.
Raptors. It’s been a season of disappointment for the Raptors. At 31-33, the fact that they were expected to sell at the trade deadline is enough to show that they are not on a championship trajectory.
T-Wolves. Sure, injuries have set their season off track, but regardless, Minnesota has been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league this year. Their record of 32-32 is worse than expected and not good enough to make a run.
Sidenote: You may have noticed that I didn’t include two of the most inconsistent teams in the league in this category—the Lakers and the Warriors. Well, both teams have one of the greatest players ever and have recently won a championship with similar squads as this year, so I didn’t eliminate them just yet.
Requirement #5
We’re down to 14 teams. You don’t get to be a top-14 team without a little bit of depth, and you don’t get to be a top-1 team without elite depth. I scaled the team scoring average of each of the past 15 seasons to this season’s total scoring average and found that 10 of the last 15 champions had at least five players scoring in double figures. This does not include the 2022 Warriors, whose four double-digit scorers, and Draymond Green, whose contributions are equivalent to that of an 18-20 PPG scorer. In many cases, such as the LeBron examples I gave at the top of the article, it doesn’t matter how much star power you have, it matters how you back it up. So, let’s get rid of the teams that simply don’t have enough help around their stars.
Each Remaining Team’s Third, Fourth, and Fifth Best Player
Celtics: M. Brogdon (14.7 / 4.2 / 3.7), M. Smart (11.5 / 3.3 / 7.1), R. Williams (8.9 / 3.9 / 1.7)
Cavaliers: E. Mobley (15.7 / 8.9 / 2.7), J. Allen (14.7 / 9.9 / 1.7), C. LeVert (12.0 / 3.9 / 3.9)
Mavericks: C. Wood (17.8 / 8.0 / 1.8), T. Hardaway Jr. (13.7 / 3.7 / 1.7), J. Green (9.2 / 2.7 / 1.6)
Nuggets: A. Gordon (17.3 / 6.9 / 2.9), M. Porter Jr. (16.8 / 5.4 / 1.0), K. Caldwell-Pope (11.4 / 3.0 / 2.4)
Warriors: J. Poole (20.9 / 2.8 / 4.5), A. Wiggins (17.1 / 5.0 / 2.3), D. Green (8.2 / 7.3 / 6.9)
Clippers: N. Powell (17.0 / 3.1 / 1.8), R. Westbrook (15.9 / 6.2 / 7.5), I. Zubac (10.2 / 10.1 / 1.0)
Lakers: D. Russell (17.9 / 3.1 / 6.2), L. Walker (13.2 / 2.1 / 1.3), R. Hachimura (10.7 / 6.1 / 0.5)
Grizzlies: J. Jackson Jr. (16.9 / 6.7 / 0.9), D. Brooks (14.8 / 3.3 / 2.6), B. Clarke (10.5 / 5.6 / 1.3)
Heat: T. Herro (20.6 / 5.7 / 4.4), M. Strus (12.6 / 3.6 / 2.2), K. Lowry (12.0 / 4.3 / 5.3)
Bucks: K. Middleton (13.6 / 3.8 / 3.9), B. Lopez (14.5 / 6.5 / 1.2), B. Portis (14.4 / 10.1 / 1.8)
Pelicans: C. McCollum (21.1 / 4.3 / 5.9), J. Valanciunas (14.4 / 9.7 / 1.7), T. Murphy III (12.9 / 3.7 / 1.3)
76ers: T. Maxey (19.8 / 2.8 / 3.6), T. Harris (15.4 / 6.0 / 2.6), D. Melton (10.7 / 4.2 / 2.7)
Suns: D. Ayton (18.7 / 10.1 / 2.0), C. Paul (13.7 / 4.2 / 9.1), C. Payne (12.1 / 2.3 / 5.3)
Kings: K. Huerter (14.9 / 3.4 / 2.9), H. Barnes (14.9 / 4.6 / 1.6), M. Monk (13.4 / 2.6 / 3.9)
Eliminated:
Mavericks. Dallas went all in on this season with their trade for Kyrie Irving. (Check out my thoughts on the trade by clicking on the link below). Unfortunately for them, they sacrificed one of their best players in Spencer Dinwiddie, and their most consistent 3-and-D guy, Dorian Finney-Smith. This doesn’t leave the Mavs with enough help for their big two.
Grizzlies. This probably comes as a surprise, but hear me out. The Grizzlies simply don’t have enough shooting. Jackson Jr. is not a high-volume three-point shooter, and only hits 35.6% of the time anyway. Brooks is bad from three-point range with a 31.2% curve this season. And Clarke is not a shooter. In fact, outside of Desmond Bane, Memphis only has three players with a three-point percentage above the league average. And as we all know, it’s a make-or-miss league. Memphis just misses too often.
Kings. The Beam Team’s dream run ends here. It’s not all because of depth either. It’s the lack of defensive prowess and the fact that Barnes and Huerter are the only players who have late postseason experience. Sabonis never made it past the first round in Indiana, and Fox is still waiting on his first playoff appearance. Newcomers like this rarely make deep runs. Goodbye, Kings. It was fun.
Sidenote: Once again, the Lakers escape by the skin of their teeth, but once again, they’ve we’ve seen this before. The 2020 Lakers had less consistent help and the same amount of shooting as they did three season ago, which is reason to believe that they could do it again.
Requirement #6
Everyone knows that unless you’re the 1972 Lakers, the 1998 Bulls, or the 2011 Mavericks, you’ve got to be mostly healthy to win a championship. Look at some of the most recent seasons. The Warriors likely would have won in 2019, but Kevin Durant missed all but a quarter of action. The Heat looked like they had a shot in 2020, but Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic went down early and Miami had no chance. In 2021, most would have picked the fully healthy Nets to win it all, but Kyrie Irving got injured and James Harden was hobbled, leaving the Nets a few centimeters from beating the eventual champion: the Bucks. Now, obviously, we can’t predict injuries, but I’m going off the eye test, and if a team has had injury troubles all year, there’s no reason to believe that they won’t happen in the playoffs.
Eliminated:
Pelicans. Zion Williamson has only played 29 games this year and is expected to miss a fair chunk of the season leading up to the playoffs. It looks like it’ll be the third time in four seasons that Williamson plays under 40 games. Meanwhile, Brandon Ingram has missed 35 games this year including being sidelined with a toe injury for two months. New Orleans is 18-22 when either player misses a game, so it’s evident that they will need to be fully healthy in the playoffs. They have shown that they can be.
Lakers. Day-to-day Davis, as the kids like to call him, is the ultimate X-factor around the league. LeBron James has played most of LA’s games this year and supporting players, D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Rui Hachimura, and Lonnie Walker IV have shown up to play too. But as we’ve seen from years past, the Lakers’ success hinges on Davis’ ability to stay healthy. Last year, they were 16-26 without Davis, and are 11-13 this year without him. He’s only played 49% of possible games in the last four seasons including playing on one leg in the Lakers’ playoff series against Phoenix in 2021—I don’t feel comfortable betting on him to stay healthy.
Sidenote: I spent many sleepless nights trying to decipher whether or not the Clippers belonged with the Pelicans and the Lakers. I eventually decided, though, that many of Kawhi Leonard’s and Paul George’s missed games are due to load management and a cautious medical staff, and not injuries. Secondly, with the exception of Leonard two years ago, both he and George have missed few playoff games in their careers, leading me to believe that when the postseason starts, they’ll be ready to go.
Requirement #7
Building a championship team is about having talented individuals, but it also requires a collective effort. Few teams could ever win without chemistry and togetherness on both sides of the ball, although I think the 2016-2018 Warriors could win even if they all hated each other. Therefore, offensive and defensive ratings are the best statistics to use to measure teams because they show the success of the entire unit throughout an entire season—just what a championship requires.
Offensive and Defensive Ratings of 2008-2022 Champions
2008 Celtics: 10th in offensive rating, 1st in defensive rating
2009 Lakers: 3rd in offensive rating, 6th in defensive rating
2010 Lakers: 11th in offensive rating, 4th in defensive rating
2011 Mavericks: 8th in offensive rating, 8th in defensive rating
2012 Heat: 8th in offensive rating, 4th in defensive rating
2013 Heat: 2nd in offensive rating, 9th in defensive rating
2014 Spurs: 7th in offensive rating, 3rd in defensive rating
2015 Warriors: 2nd in offensive rating, 1st in defensive rating
2016 Cavaliers: 3rd in offensive rating, 10th in defensive rating
2017 Warriors: 1st in offensive rating, 2nd in defensive rating
2018 Warriors: 3rd in offensive rating, 11th in defensive rating
2019 Raptors: 5th in offensive rating, 5th in defensive rating
2020 Lakers: 11th in offensive rating, 3rd in defensive rating
2021 Bucks: 6th in offensive rating, 9th in defensive rating
2022 Warriors: 17th in offensive rating, 1st in defensive rating
As you can see, both ratings have a strong correlation with success, but defensive rating really stands out in that department. No championship team in the last 15 years has had a lower defensive rating than the 11th in the league. For offense, the lowest is 17th place—last year’s Warriors. The highest sum of ranks is 18 (17+1 from last year’s Warriors once again). Like I did when we assessed the top-12 players in the league, I’ll increase the margin by a little bit. I’ll say that if any team has an offensive rating lower than 19th place, a defensive rating lower than 13th, or a sum of ratings of over 20, they are in serious jeopardy of not making the cut.
This Year’s Field
Celtics: 3rd in offensive rating, 5th in defensive rating
Cavaliers: 10th in offensive rating, 1st in defensive rating
Nuggets: 1st in offensive rating, 13th in defensive rating
Warriors: 13th in offensive rating, 20th in defensive rating
Clippers: 19th in offensive rating, 10th in defensive rating
Heat: 27th in offensive rating, 4th in defensive rating
Bucks: 20th in offensive rating, 3rd in defensive rating
76ers: 8th in offensive rating, 6th in defensive rating
Suns: 17th in offensive rating, 8th in defensive rating
Before I eliminate teams, I’ll explain why I’m giving the Bucks, Suns, and Clippers a lifeline despite having an offensive rating outside of the range, and a sum of ratings greater than the rating, respectively. Milwaukee has only had Khris Middleton available for 17 games this year; his absence has been a major reason for their relatively low offensive rating of 113.8. In their last four seasons, they have finished 4th, 8th, 6th, and 3rd in offensive rating, and had virtually the same roster, if not worse, in those previous seasons, leading me to believe that the lack of offensive success is attributed to Middleton missing time. Plus, I can’t ignore that Milwaukee has the second-best win percentage in the NBA right now, even without Middleton. As for the Suns, missing Devin Booker has hurt their offensive rating. But obviously, this is all about Kevin Durant. Durant is perhaps the most efficient scorer in the game and averages 30, which will boost Phoenix’s offensive to high heights. Finally, the Clippers make it through again. Overall, as you can see, the Clippers rank 19th and 10th in offensive and defensive ratings, respectively. However, when Leonard plays, the Clippers rank 1st in offensive rating and 3rd in defensive rating. When George plays, they are 4th in offensive and 6th in defensive. When both play, LA is 1st and 11th in the two categories (almost identical to the Nuggets). And, as I said, I trust them to be healthy and ready to rock come playoff time.
Eliminated:
Warriors. There’s a reason that Golden State is 29-29 right now. They give up the 4th most points per game, meaning that if they weren’t scoring the second most points per game, they’d be making company with teams like the Raptors and the Pacers. In the end, this team has too many deficiencies—defensive rebounding, free-throw margin, and high turnovers, to name a few. Unless the Warriors change drastically from now until April 15th, winning a championship will be virtually impossible.
Heat. Miami is probably the toughest team to judge out of all 30 because neither Jimmy Butler nor Bam Adebayo is All-NBA First Team caliber, but the Heat’s ability to play together and increase their production in the playoffs is impossible to ignore. But they’re worse offensively than they have been in years past. From last year, their PPG has dipped from 110.0 to 108.3 (last in the league), their FG% has decreased from 46.7% to 45.2% (29th in the league), and their 3PFG% is down from 37.9% to 33.4%. Teams like the Heat can’t win championships in the modern era of basketball.
Requirement #8
Let’s check back in with player achievement. The leaders of each of the remaining 7 teams are great players, but only one team (the 2019 Raptors) didn’t have a player who had previously won league MVP. Let’s look at the other 14 teams.
2008 Celtics: Kevin Garnett (MVP in 2004)
2009 Lakers: Kobe Bryant (MVP in 2008)
2010 Lakers: Kobe Bryant (MVP in 2008)
2011 Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki (MVP in 2007)
2012 Heat: LeBron James (MVP in 2009, 2010, 2012)
2013 Heat: LeBron James (MVP in 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013)
2014 Spurs: Tim Duncan (MVP in 2002 and 2003)
2015 Warriors: Stephen Curry (MVP in 2015 and 2016)
2016 Cavaliers: LeBron James (MVP in 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013)
2017 Warriors: Kevin Durant (MVP in 2014), Stephen Curry (MVP in 2015 and 2016)
2018 Warriors: Kevin Durant (MVP in 2014), Stephen Curry (MVP in 2015 and 2016)
2019 Raptors: None
2020 Lakers: LeBron James (MVP in 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013)
2021 Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MVP in 2019 and 2020)
2022 Warriors: Stephen Curry (MVP in 2015 and 2016)
Acclaimed Basketball YouTuber/Historian, Jxmy Highroller, put together a video that calculated the best season in NBA history. He found that Michael Jordan’s 1988 campaign was far and away the greatest season of all time. To calculate the best seasons, he used a self-made formula that is shown below.
Season Score = 10 points for winning DPOY + PPG + RPG + APG + 10 points for an ALL-NBA defense selection + PER + win shares + box plus-minus + value over replacement + 5 points for leading in either PPG, RPG, or APG + 5 points for winning ASG MVP
Pretty complex stuff. Here’s Jimmy’s video by the way. Trust me, you’ll be amazed by what he put together.
So, I took the liberty of calculating the season scores of the best player on each of the last 15 championship teams (from the championship season) to gain a reference point for this year’s players.
2008 Celtics: Kevin Garnett (season score of 103.8)
2009 Lakers: Kobe Bryant (season score of 100.8)
2010 Lakers: Kobe Bryant (season score of 87.2)
2011 Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki (season score of 76.7)
2012 Heat: LeBron James (season score of 115.1)
2013 Heat: LeBron James (season score of 124.1)
2014 Spurs: Tim Duncan (season score of 62.9)
2015 Warriors: Stephen Curry (season score of 97.3)
2016 Cavaliers: LeBron James (season score of 97.1)
2017 Warriors: Kevin Durant (season score of 92.4)
2018 Warriors: Kevin Durant (season score of 88.2)
2019 Raptors: Kawhi Leonard (season score of 94.4)
2020 Lakers: LeBron James (season score of 98.1)
2021 Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo (season score of 114.0)
2022 Warriors: Stephen Curry (season score of 84.3)
The average season score for the best player on each championship team was 95.8, which is close to the mark the Jxmy Highroller outlined as the baseline for an MVP (100), not that that has much to do with this round of cuts. The standard deviation of these 15 season scores is 9.8, so I decided to go half of a standard deviation below the mean, and call 90.9 the minimum season score that the best player on the seven remaining teams could have to advance past requirement #8.
Sidenote: For VORP and WS, I used the pace that the player is currently on. For defensive player of the year, I considered the top three betting favorites, who are Jaren Jackson Jr., Brook Lopez, and Bam Adebayo. Lopez, of the Bucks is the only player of those three left in the race for best championship blueprint, and he is nowhere near MVP-caliber, therefore, nobody won 10 points for DPOY. As for All-Defensive teams, there are only two MVP-caliber players in the running—Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. As for the odds to win defensive player of the year, Antetokounmpo trails only Jackson Jr. at his position. Meanwhile, Embiid is 5th among centers, behind Lopez, Adebayo, Nicolas Claxton, and Jarrett Allen. Since there are two all-defensive teams, I awarded Antetokounmpo the all-second team selection, giving him an additional 10 points towards his season score.
Here’s what I found.
Celtics: Jayson Tatum (93.3)
Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell (88.1)
Nuggets: Nikola Jokić (116.9)
Clippers: Kawhi Leonard (72.2)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokoumpo (108.7)
76ers: Joel Embiid (103.5)
Suns: Kevin Durant (94.2)
Based on what Jxmy Highroller said about 100 being the baseline for an MVP, it appears that there are three MVP-caliber players in Jokić, Antetokounmpo, and Embiid and that despite what the majority of fans are hoping for, a Jokić three-peat is in the cards. Tatum and Durant are having All-NBA First Team seasons but would fall just short of the MVP in most years. And then there’s Mitchell, who is right on the precipice of the 90.8 mark but is a score of 2.7 shy. Leonard, who, as a product of missing games and having a down year is well below the minimum season score.
Eliminated:
Cavaliers. As I said before, Mitchell is barely short of the minimum I outlined, so some might think that I should give him a pass. However, it’s not just their lack of star power. Sure, Mitchell isn’t the most ideal first option on a championship team, but the Cavaliers have other deficiencies. Kirk Goldsberry pointed out, on the Lowe Post podcast, that their lack of wings hurts them on offense. Darius Garland and Mitchell are small guards, and therefore, do the majority of their work on the perimeter. Evan Mobley is not quite a three-point shooter, and Jarrett Allen only works in the paint, leaving a big void in their offense. So far this year, Isaac Okoro, Dean Wade, Cedi Osman, and Lamar Stevens have not been able to fill that void, and Cleveland is 27 in PPG. Maybe if Mitchell was the quality of a Jokic, Antetokounmpo, or Embiid, I wouldn’t eliminate the Cavs, but with a season score of just 88.1, he’s not good enough to cover up for his team’s weaknesses.
Clippers. LA is the opposite of Cleveland. They’ve got all the tools outside of the big two of Leonard and George. Russell Westbrook is a capable starting point guard. Eric Gordon and Norman Powell can shoot the lights out of the gym. Marcus Morris Sr. is having a good year. Add in Ivica Zubac, Bones Hyland, Nicolas Batum, and Mason Plumlee, and you’ve got yourself a well-rounded squad. Simply put, Leonard, hasn’t shown that he’s good enough this year to be the difference maker in whether or not the Clippers win a championship. He’s only averaging 22.7 PPG and has struggled to close tight games this, unlike in years past. Overall, I don’t see Leonard’s elite takeover ability that got the Raptors their ring in 2019, and the Clippers will need it in the late rounds of the playoffs.
Requirement #9
Anyone knows that it takes experience to win a championship. This is not to say that a team has to have lost in the Finals prior to winning a championship like the Lakers in 2009 and 2010, the Heat in 2012 and 2013, the Spurs in 2014, the Cavs in 2016, and the Warriors in 2017 and 2018. But 8 out of 15 teams is a lot, and it shows that a team’s first deep run at a title is often humbling. So, let’s take a look at each team’s deepest playoff run with roughly their currently constructed roster.
Celtics: NBA Finals in 2022 (lost 4-2 to GSW)
Nuggets: Western Conference Finals in 2020 (lost 4-1 to LAL)
Bucks: NBA Champions (won 4-2 vs PHO)
76ers: Eastern Conference Semifinals (lost 4-2 to MIA)
Suns: NBA Finals (lost 4-2 to MIL)
Eliminated:
76ers. Only three teams in the last 15 years have ever won a championship without their core advancing past the conference semifinals (2011 Mavericks, 2015 Warriors, and 2020 Lakers). However, the Lakers did so on the back of the Anthony Davis trade, and the Warriors had a much more developed Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Stephen Curry, who elevated to an MVP level in the 2014-2015 season. The trouble for the 76ers is that despite Joel Embiid’s monstrous season and James Harden’s excellent complementary play are what we saw from them last season. Embiid’s numbers have been up and down from last year, averaging 2.4 more PPG, and shooting 3.7% better from the field. However, his three-point percentage is down from 37.1% to 33.3% and his PER is down 0.7. Harden’s percentages are up from last year but his numbers are practically identical. Sure, Philadelphia acquired De’Anthony Melton and P.J. Tucker, but they also lost Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle. The point: the 76ers are essentially the same team from last year, and I wouldn’t count on them to make the leap to a championship this season.
Requirement #10
This is the tenth and final requirement that will help us find this year’s most likely champion. This requirement required some serious graphing work. I recognized that most NBA champions (especially those in the last 15 years) have had some of the deepest rosters in the league during the years that they won. To find this, I looked at the total win shares of everybody on each championship team. I found the percentage of win shares that were attributed to players who aren’t in the starting lineup. It wasn’t until I saw that 60% of 2022 Golden State’s win shares were from their usual bench players (when starters are healthy) that I realized that %WS was a biased statistic. It didn’t take into account the fact the Golden State’s starters missed 123 games this year, while the 2009 Lakers’ starters only missed a combined 5 games. To fix this, I made a graph that showed the number of games missed by starters on the x-axis, and %WS by bench players on the y-axis to see if there was a clear correlation. Here’s what I found.
Here’s a clearer version that shows the correlation between the two variables.
As you can see, there is a pretty distinct correlation between the variables. Interestingly enough, the three points farthest below the line are all LeBron James-led teams. The main outlier on the graph is the 2014 Spurs, who as I have already mentioned, were without a true star, and were very well-rounded. Seeing that this was an accurate way of measuring if a team had good depth or not, I calculated the same stats for the remaining candidates for the 2023 championship (I scaled the number of games missed by starters to an 82-game season).
Wow. This was unexpected. I honestly didn’t know how I was going to separate Boston, Milwaukee, Denver, and Phoenix until I graphed this. But the answer is clear now.
Eliminated:
Nuggets. Denver looks great, don’t get me wrong. Jokic is the clear MVP, they’ve got depth, their offense is potent, the defense is fine, and the supporting cast of Murray, Porter Jr., and Gordon has been great all year. But their supporting cast doesn’t go deep enough. They just acquired Reggie Jackson, who is averaging an uncharacteristic 10.5 on just 42.3% and 34.5% splits and doesn’t offer much on the defensive side of the ball, from the Clippers, and he is their best scoring option off the bench. Denver also acquired Thomas Bryant from the other LA team at the deadline and also has Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, and Jeff Green as part of the second unit. Now, all of these players are fine pieces on a championship-quality roster, but especially with Jackson’s declining play, I don’t trust any of them to be a first option off the bench against Boston, Milwaukee, and Phoenix.
Phoenix. On the surface, Kevin Durant makes the Suns look like the best team in the NBA. Durant, Booker, and either Paul or Ayton make up what is probably the best trio in the league. However, now that Cameron Johnson and Mikal Bridges have both been shipped off to Brooklyn, Josh Okogie, an excellent bench piece has slid into the starting lineup along with the big 4. Only Cameron Payne scores in the double digits for Phoenix, and the Suns are an injury away from Jock Landale being a part of their 8-man rotation, who is a big step down from Grant Williams and Jae Crowder of the Celtics and Bucks. They aren’t deep enough to be considered to have the best championship blueprint.
Bucks. It’s clear that the Bucks have better depth than Phoenix and Denver. You can look at the chart, or you can look at the roster. Bobby Portis is a better player than any Denver or Phoenix bench players. Pat Connaughton has come up big in the Finals in the past, and Joe Ingles and Jae Crowder aren’t slouches either. However, where the problem exists with ball-handling. None of those players can be a primary ball-handler. And Antetokounmpo, and Middleton are not at their best when they are running the offense either, leaving Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, and Jevon Carter. Carter, who is averaging just 7.6 PPG, is an inferior option at back-up point guard to the likes of Malcolm Brogdon or Derrick White. Plus Tatum and Brown are at their best when they are running the offense. Secondly, Milwaukee’s bench is almost unrecognizable from their 2021 bench, when they won the championship. That bench consisted of P.J. Tucker, who is a 76er, Donte DiVincenzo, who plays for Golden State, and D.J. Augustin, who is now retired. To me, Milwaukee has the clear second-best chance to win a championship this year, and it can’t be ignored that Giannis Antetokounmpo is better than every single player I’ve mentioned so far in this article. He’s the best in the world. But his team isn’t.
The Boston Celtics. Boston fills out all 10 requirements that I outlined. Let’s go through them again.
They are not tankings. That’s obvious.
They have an All-NBA First Team caliber player in Jayson Tatum (he made the All-NBA First Team last year too).
They have an All-NBA Third Team caliber player in Jaylen Brown.
They’ve won consistently throughout this season. They have five winning streaks or at least four games, including two nine-game winning streaks.
They have good balance in their starting lineups. Marcus Smart, Al Horford, and Rob Williams III all play different games, and have all had success this year.
They’ve stayed relatively healthy as the season has gone on. Tatum and Brown have only missed a combined 16 games this season (out of a possible 126), and the rest of roster, outside of Rob Williams, has no notable injury history.
Their ratings resemble those of championship teams. They’re 3rd in offensive rating and 5th in defensive rating. They are also the only team in the top five of both categories.
Tatum’s season score is 4th in the league, and a very realistic score for the best player on a championship team.
They have experience. They made the NBA Finals last year.
They have the best bench in the league. If they won the championship this year, statistically, it would be the 4th best championship bench in the last 16 years. Brogdon is also a 6th man of the year candidate.
The only knock on the Celtics is that they can’t boast having the best player in the world like the Suns, Nuggets, Bucks, and 76ers might be able to. But as I said at the very start of this article, basketball is not a one-man show. It takes a team, and Boston is the best team.