Why One Team's Downfall is Approaching
What does this graph mean to you? Probably nothing, but at the very least, you noticed that there is a great deal of red in the top right and a lot of green in the bottom left. Well, those colors essentially tell the whole story. On the x-axis, you have win percentage, and on the y-axis, yo have DVOA. Those big red bubbles in the top right of this graph represent all of the elite teams that the Dolphins have lost to in the last two years. Here are the Dolphins games against teams with a DVOA of at least 20% (typically 9 or 10 teams from season to season), or teams with at least ten wins
Week 2, 2022 vs Ravens: 42-38 (WIN)
Week 3, 2022 vs Bills: 21-19 (WIN)
Week 4, 2022 vs Bengals: 27-15 (LOSS)
Week 6, 2022 vs Vikings: 24-16 (LOSS)
Week 14, 2022 vs Chargers: 23-17 (LOSS)
Week 15, 2022 vs Bills: 32-29 (LOSS)
Week 4, 2023 vs Bills: 48-20 (LOSS)
Week 7, 2023 vs Eagles: 31-17 (LOSS)
Despite two early season wins last year, after the Eagles’ triumph over the Dolphins last Sunday night, Miami are 2-6 in such games, and unbelievably, have not beaten a playoff team in over a calendar year (since week 3 vs the Bills). In 2023, they haven’t come close, losing by a combined 42 points to the Bills and Eagles. Speaking of the Bills, right now, they are the Dolphins biggest rival in the AFC. The Bills might not be the best team in the conference, but each year, they have Miami’s number and outlast them to win the AFC East. Let’s look at Buffalo’s version of the chart.
There’s lot more green all around this chart; after all, Buffalo is 19-7 in the last two seasons (comfortably better than Miami’s 15-11 record in that same span). And most importantly, in that upper right area, the Bills are 3-3 as opposed to Miami’s 2-6 record.
Week 4, 2022 vs Ravens: 23-20 (WIN)
Week 6, 2022 vs Chiefs: 24-20 (WIN)
Week 10, 2022 vs Vikings: 33-30 OT (LOSS)
Div. Round vs Bengals, 2023: 24-10 (LOSS)
Week 4, 2023 vs Dolphins: 48-20 (WIN)
Week 5, 2023 vs Jaguars: 25-20 (LOSS)
How about a team that you don’t immediately hear when AFC Contenders are brought up?
The Browns have had far much more success against top teams than Miami has. In games against 10-win teams or 20%+ DVOA teams, they are a very respectable 5-6.
Week 5, 2022 vs Chargers: 30-28 (LOSS)
Week 7, 2022 vs Ravens: 23-20 (LOSS)
Week 8, 2022 vs Bengals: 32-13 (WIN)
Week 10, 2022 vs Bills: 31-23 (LOSS)
Week 11, 2022 vs Buccaneers: 23-17 OT (WIN)
Week 14, 2022 vs Bengals: 23-10 (LOSS)
Week 15, 2022 vs Ravens: 13-3 (WIN)
Week 1, 2023 vs Bengals: 24-3 (WIN)
Week 2, 2023 vs Steelers: 26-22 (LOSS)
Week 4, 2023 vs Ravens: 28-3 (LOSS)
Week 6, 2023 vs 49ers: 19-17 (WIN)
Here are two more graphs that push the same idea: Miami hasn’t had much competition in their wins, and tends to fold against tougher opponents.
Surprisingly, the four teams’ that the Steelers have defeated this year combine for the highest win percentage of all AFC teams. Every team follows fairly closely, with the Chiefs competition having the second lowest win percentage with 0.425. And all the way down at 0.242, after beating the 3-4 Chargers, 2-6 Patriots, 2-6 Broncos, 2-6 Giants, and 1-6 Panthers, are the Miami Dolphins. These five games aren’t an aberration of Miami’s past schedule either. Since the start of last season, only two teams have fewer wins against playoff teams than Miami does.
Here’s the counterargument to my point: Miami can’t control who they play, so they shouldn’t be penalized for beating bad teams. But even against the worst teams in the league, Miami’s production has not looked like one of a Super Bowl contender. An all-time great offense—which Miami has—is not enough. Only one of the last 12 teams to appear in the conference championship game had a negative defensive DVOA (the 2021 Chiefs). In this following graph, the best teams are in the bottom right corner, and the three Super Bowl champions are in gold.
As you can see, Miami’s PPG allowed and defensive DVOA are worse than any of these 12 teams, leading one to believe that they will be bested by teams like Kansas City, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Buffalo, and Jacksonville come playoff time.
Jalen Ramsey just returned for the Dolphins, and he will be one of their final chances to get this defense functioning at a championship level. But until there is improvement on that side of the ball and a few wins against top tier opponents, we shouldn’t expect Miami to go anywhere anytime soon.