Wild Card Deep Dive: Predictions, Explanations, and More
The NFL season is like a long train ride. Every year, the train starts its engines in week one with 32 teams on board—all with the hope that they won’t get dropped off into the abyss of elimination before January. Unfortunately, the train runs a tight ship. This season, nine teams were dumped off before week 15 which is a preposterously high number. In the next two weeks, the Saints, 49ers, Cowboys, and Cardinals were all dropped off at Elimination Station. In week seventeen, they were joined by the Colts and Seahawks, and although everyone wanted to see Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase in the playoffs, there wasn’t enough room on board. The Dolphins, Bengals, and Falcons were all thrown off the train, leaving 14 teams to rumble down the tracks.
Now, the train has reached Playoff Station and spoiler alert—there will only be room for one team when the train reaches its destination. But first, we’ve got to whittle down the number from 14 to eight. Which six teams will see their rides come to an end this weekend and which will punch their ticket to divisional station? Ben Paradis from Beyond the Box Score and I have each predicted every Wild Card game and provided you with in-depth explanations of our picks. We’ve got all the answers to which teams will keep roaring down the track this season. Better buckle up because it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
(4) Houston Texans vs (5) Los Angeles Chargers
Webb: Texans 27-19
Everyone has prematurely dismissed the Texans after they stumbled to the finish line in December. I’ll concede that the Texans have been jeopardized by injuries and have looked shaky against the contenders of the AFC, particularly losing to the Chiefs in convincing fashion and getting curb-stomped by the Ravens four days later. However, the talent on this roster is undeniable and I believe it will be enough to get Houston into the divisional round for the second straight season.
C.J. Stroud has had a down year but we all know that at his peak, he’s capable of going blow for blow with Justin Herbert. Last season, Stroud excelled in the 4 versus 5 Wild Card game, throwing for three touchdowns and a nearly perfect passer rating in a 45-14 blowout of the Browns. Houston is without Tank Dell, but they still have Nico Collins who is fourth in yards per game this year and presents a dangerous intermediate and deep threat against a young Chargers secondary. Houston is 8-4 when Collins plays and just 1-3 without him, leading me to believe he is their key to victory on offense.
However, I believe the secret formula lies with Houston’s defense which has transformed overnight since former Niners DC DeMeco Ryans was instituted as head coach. The Texans had the third-highest defensive DVOA this season and the sixth-fewest yards per game. Additionally, led by sophomore stud Will Anderson Jr., they are fourth in sacks.
Houston’s defensive prowess will pay dividends against a LA Chargers offense that hasn’t exactly been a Hollywood showcase this year. While the numbers suggest they are a good offense, they faced one of the weakest defensive schedules this year, and their aerial attack has fallen off from years past—Justin Herbert passed for the fewest yards of his career.
The Texans are far from perfect, but it’ll be at least another week until fans are saying, “Houston, we have a problem.”
Ben: Chargers 28-13
Not all playoff teams are created equal. Many years, we see playoff matchups between a red-hot team and another who has stumbled through the season. This matchup between the Chargers and Texans is no different.
Webb accurately hit on the Texans' recent struggles and injury issues; yet, differently than Webb, I believe it will be their demise. Sure, C.J. Stroud is capable of amazing things, but I haven’t been given a reason to believe he will bounce back in the season's biggest game. Momentum is a critical factor and the Texans have been regressing throughout December. They dropped two of their last three games, averaging just 14.7 points. Those losses came to the Chiefs and Ravens, who are ranked 9th and 10th in total defense, respectively. The Chargers are 11th.
The unreliable offensive attack has led the Texans to face third-and-long (9+ yards) 91 times this season - the second most in the league. The Chargers currently lead the NFL in defensive success rate on third down. In the redzone, the Texans ranked 26th in touchdown rate, whereas the Chargers lead the league in red zone stop percentage. This is shaping up to be ugly for the Texans offense.
For the Chargers offensive attack, I am encouraged by the return of J.K Dobbins. He adds considerable depth to an offense that has been pass-heavy at times this year. The Chargers are 9-0 when Dobbins runs for 45 yards or more, and I expect him to hit that mark against the Texans - especially after they got run all over by the Chiefs and Ravens.
Justin Herbert has yet to win a playoff game in his career, and I think this is the perfect situation for him to silence the doubters. With Jim Harbaugh by their side, Herbert and the Chargers have experience and confidence that will be difficult for the Texans to overcome.
(3) Baltimore Ravens vs (6) Pittsburgh Steelers
Webb: Ravens 31-17
After reeling off four straight dominant wins to close the season, the Ravens are rightfully huge favorites coming into this game. But this is AFC North football, so expect a dogfight that will be even bloodier than usual with a spot in the divisional round on the line.
Any conversation about the Ravens starts and ends with Lamar Jackson. The two-time MVP just put together an absolute spectacle of a season, throwing 41 touchdowns and four interceptions for a rating of 119.6—the fourth-highest single-season rating in NFL history. But this is no normal game. Jackson has a history of playing his worst ball in the playoffs. His passer rating dips from 102.0 in the regular season to just 75.7 in the playoffs; that’s lower than Deshaun Watson’s rating this season. He will be playing without his pro-bowl receiver Zay Flowers and he’ll have to do so against the team that has been his kryptonite to this point. Jackson is just 2-4 against Pittsburgh and Mike Tomlin is 2-1 against John Harbaugh in the playoffs.
With all that said, the Ravens seemed to have solved the Steelers in week 16 in a 34-17 victory. Jackson passed for three touchdowns and Derrick Henry ran for 162 yards on 24 carries. In the past, a Lamar turnover might have put the game in the balance, but with King Henry in the backfield, the Ravens can make a few mistakes and still score 30 points.
The same can’t be said of the Steelers, who haven’t scored more than 17 points in four games. Russell Wilson has cooled off and George Pickens has MIA reports out for him. Baltimore’s defense, which started slowly, is red hot and will not allow the Steelers to score over 20 points, making work very easy for Jackson and Henry.
Ben: Ravens 34-10
If you’ve read any of my most recent articles, you would know that I’m down on the Steelers. They are the first team in over 25 years that has entered the playoffs on a 4-game losing streak, and Mike Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game in 8 years. Although they faced a gauntlet of great teams to close the season, their late season skid has revealed their major dysfunction on offense. Russell Wilson has been mediocre at best, and George Pickens often checks out mentally from games. Other than that, they don’t have many weapons. If Pickens isn’t locked in and offers Wilson a deep threat, this offense is like watching paint dry. Nothing about this team makes me believe in them, especially in this matchup.
Baltimore has one of the best secondaries in the NFL, highlighted by Kyle Hamilton (Go Irish) and Marlon Humphrey, meaning they could shut down Pickens even if he is on his best behavior. The Steelers never found the endzone when George Pickens played in this team’s first matchup.
While the Steelers have had a few years of shaky offense, their claim to fame has been a stout defense. This year their defense is just average. So what does an average defense and average offense make a team? Average! With the head-spinning rushing combination of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on offense, and the tenacious flock on defense, the Steelers are bound to have a problem. Hungry to make a Super Bowl push, I expect the Ravens to have this game sealed up before the third quarter is over.
(2) Buffalo Bills vs (7) Denver Broncos
Webb: Bills 35-21
Buffalo has grown quite accustomed to being the second seed in the AFC as this is the fourth time in Josh Allen’s career that the Bills have hosted the two versus seven matchup. In each of the first three games, the Bills took care of business albeit winning two shaky games over Indianapolis in 2020 and Miami in 2022. Unfortunately for the Mile High faithful, I don’t see much of an argument for that streak ending this weekend against a very inexperienced Broncos team.
Bo Nix has been the darling of the NFL this season and Sean Payton has maximized every one of his players’ value including stud defensive players, Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen, as well as core offensive pieces Courtland Sutton and Audric Estime. But look at those names. None of them say, “We can beat the MVP of the NFL.” In the end, Josh Allen himself brings too much star power to the table. Since week 7, the Bills have averaged 34.4 points in Allen’s starts, and he’s had help from a tremendous 15-touchdown season out of James Cook.
History is also working against Denver. Out of the last ten rookie quarterbacks to start in the playoffs, only C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy won their first game. I think we can all agree that Bo Nix is not as good as Stroud in his rookie year, doesn’t have the supporting cast that Purdy did, and has a much tougher opponent in the Bills than Stroud and Purdy did playing the Browns and Seahawks, respectively.
Ben: Bills 34-21
The Broncos are just happy to be invited to the party. Listen, Bo Nix is one of the best stories in the NFL, and Denver has a very bright future ahead. Still, stealing a game at Orchard Park seems unrealistic for a young, inexperienced team. Rookie quarterbacks haven’t fared well in the playoffs, and this roster doesn’t quite have the talent to win an away playoff game.
With plenty of playoff experience, home field advantage, and the best quarterback in the world on their side, the Bills are an obvious choice to win this one convincingly. Diving into the smaller details, Buffalo’s case becomes more apparent. Denver plays man coverage at the second highest rate in the league, and 22 of Allen’s 28 touchdowns have occurred when he faces man. Broncos cornerback, Pat Surtain II, is the best corner in the league, but the nature of the Bill’s offense will negate his impact. The Bill’s don’t have a true #1 receiver, meaning Surtain II will have to pick his poison. Furthermore, the Broncos have thrived on pressuring the quarterback, but Allen is a magician at evading rushers. He took a career low in sacks and finished this season with the all-time best QBR under pressure.
Even in a loss, I think the Broncos will be able to put up some points. If Sean Payton calls easy plays, like screens and checkdowns, Bo Nix should find his footing quickly in Buffalo. The Bills biggest weakness has been stopping slow, methodical drives for other teams. The Broncos do that very well. With a couple checkdowns from Nix and medium yardage gains from Estime (Go Irish), the Broncos put together some solid drives.
In the end, I still have the battle-tested Bills handling the Broncos with relative ease. Experience wins.
(2) Philadelphia Eagles vs (7) Green Bay Packers
Webb: Eagles 34-28
I’ve gone back and forth on this game. Both teams have an extensive amount of playmakers, but in the end, only one team has a true difference-maker. I’m talking about Saquon Barkley of course. Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards this season and was on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record before resting in week 18, so it seems fair to guarantee him 100 rushing yards on heavy usage at the very least.
Against the Packers in Week One, Barkley rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns to go along with a receiving touchdown. That was a theme all season for Green Bay, who allowed 100 yards rushing against the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles. Speaking of Green Bay’s opponents, they were 0-5 against the top five teams in the NFC, making their best win of the season a walk-off home victory against Houston in week seven.
Philly beat Green Bay 34-29 in Week One and if the Packers don’t have Jordan Love at 100%, they stand no chance with Malik Willis who is painfully one-dimensional. He’ll also be facing an Eagles defense that has suffocated opposing QBs. The Eagles’ defense allows the third-lowest passer rating on average as well as the fewest passing yards per game.
Although I trust Jordan Love to run up the score like he did in the Wild Card round last year, these are two teams headed in different directions, and a raucous Philly crowd will be the cherry on top of a close victory.
Ben: Eagles 20-17
Since the close Week One matchup in favor of the Eagles, these teams have taken different directions. The Eagles have improved exponentially since that game, going 12-1 after the bye. As for the Packers, the first week began a troubling pattern for them. They went 0-4 against divisional opponents and never beat a team with double digit wins. They can’t get it against the big dogs.
The Eagles have the best defense in the league, and I expect them to expose Jordan Love and the Packers. Recently, Green Bay lost their best receiver, Christian Watson, to a season-ending injury, and quarterback Jordan Love is dealing with an elbow issue that will hinder his throwing ability.
The chess match in this game will happen while the Packers are on defense. The Eagles thrive on big plays, as they ranked second in the league of 40+ yard plays. However, the Packers defense only allowed one of those plays all-season long. When did this happen, you might be wondering? Against the Eagles. So, if Jalen Hurts can open up the field with another long-bomb to A.J Brown, I like their chances. If not, the Packers will keep this game very close. In the end, I think Green Bay’s struggles against top opponents can’t be ignored and will only be compounded by injury. I’ll take the Eagles in a close one.
(3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs (6) Washington Commanders
Webb: Commanders 34-31
This is my game of the week. Washington has two more wins than Tampa Bay but the Bucs have won six out of seven, have playoff experience, and are riding the wave of Baker Mayfield’s MVP-level play. Incredibly, the Commanders have won four straight games on a two-point conversion stop with no time on the clock, a touchdown with nine seconds left, a game-winning touchdown in overtime, and a touchdown with one second left. All signs point to this Sunday night showdown coming down to the wire too.
Why do I like Washington? There are a few reasons. I believe Tampa Bay’s defense is the most vulnerable unit in this game. Six weeks ago, they allowed Bryce Young’s third-highest career point total. Three weeks later, they gave up 26 points to Cooper Rush and the Cowboys, and last week, Spencer Rattler of all people was moving the ball up and down the field until crunch time. You can make an argument that the Bucs’ defense is hot and cold and that you might get a great game out of them, but against a Commanders offense that finished fifth in points per game this season, they’re more likely to be cold. In fact, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if Washington scored 40 points in this game—something only the Lions and Bills have done more times than them this season.
Washington’s defense on the other hand has the ability to make key stops, allowing fewer points than Tampa Bay, and generating a higher pressure rate. The Commanders have the fifth-highest sack rate of any team in the league this year—something that the Bucs are unaccustomed to seeing. Their entire division ranks in the bottom quartile of sack percentage and against Denver, Dallas, and Baltimore, who are the first, second, and sixth-place teams in the stat, the Bucs went a combined 0-3 with four picks from Baker Mayfield.
Finally, it’s worth noting that the Commanders were 5-3 on the road this year and Jayden Daniels’ passer rating rose from 93.8 to 108.2 in road games. On the flip side, the Bucs have had a worse home record than away record in both seasons of Baker.
Ben: Commanders 27-24
I agree with Webb - this will be the best game of the week. While some think the Commanders recent close-call wins makes them vulnerable, I believe it gives them a confidence that is very important for a young team led by a rookie QB. The Buccaneers defense has allowed poor offenses to dice them up, but it goes even deeper than that. With significant injuries in the secondary, the Bucs have played zone defense often. Daniels has been terrific against zones, having the fourth highest EPA (expected points added) in the league.
The Buccaneers have also been propelled by great quarterback play, but the Commanders secondary plays a significant factor in this game. Marshon Lattimore is expected to return for Washington, and he has a history of locking up the Buccaneers #1 option, Mike Evans. They have exchanged punches, harsh words, and ejections throughout the years, but Lattimore has always won. Evans, a future hall-of-famer, has averaged only 2.6 catches per game in the 13 games he has been covered by Lattimore. While Mike Evans isn’t their only receiving option, he is Baker’s favorite target and a significant factor in opening up their running game. The Buccaneers went 0-3 when Mike Evans didn’t play this season and struggled mightily when he was held below 70 yards.
No matter what, this will be a very close game. When these teams played in Week One, the Buccaneers won convincingly, but things have changed. Daniels hadn’t found his footing, Bucky Irving was still a backup, Lattimore hadn’t been traded for, and Chris Godwin was still available for Tampa. Thus, I like the Commanders in this one. The Cinderella story in Washington will continue with a plundering of the pirates in Tampa.
(4) Los Angeles Rams vs (5) Minnesota Vikings
Webb: Vikings 28-12
It never feels right to say that a higher seed will get blown out, but as we saw from the Cowboys last year and the Bucs the year before, it’s got to happen to someone. What’s worse for the Rams is that this game won’t even be played in SoFi Stadium. Due to the raging wildfires in Los Angeles, the game has been relocated to Glendale, Arizona. Neutral site? Give me the 14-3 team.
After the Lions held the Vikings to nine points in week 18, I’m probably in the minority when I say that I still believe in Sam Darnold. That game was an aberration. The Vikings' usually efficient redzone offense scored zero touchdowns, Darnold’s worst misses game on routine throws at crucial points in the game, and the Lions’ played better man coverage than any has all season. As long as Darnold has protection, Kobie Turner, Jared Verse and Co. won’t be able to agitate him he’ll have time to deliver throws all over the turf to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison who will be working against a vulnerable Rams secondary.
On the flip side, somehow, everyone has been convinced that resting Matt Stafford in week 18 will solve all of the Rams’ problems on offense. This is an offense that scored a combined three touchdowns and 44 points in Stafford’s final three games. In fact, the Rams' offense has only scored above 21 points five times this season (Minnesota has done it 13 times). Brian Flores’ defense will only make life more difficult for Stafford who hasn’t been great against pressure this season. Minnesota is second in defensive DVOA and fourth in sacks, leading me to believe that Monday will be another occurrence of the Rams disappointing us on offense.
All in all, it’s pretty simple. The Rams have a negative point differential this season. Teams with negative point differentials this decade are 1-7 in the playoffs. Kevin O’Connell—the league’s greatest quarterback whisperer—will have Sammy Slingshots firing darts to the best receiver duo in the playoffs and old age and a battering Vikings’ defensive line will bog down a struggling Stafford, leading to questions surrounding his future with the Rams.
Ben: Rams 21-13
The Los Angeles Rams have an eerie confidence heading into this game. In Week 18, they could’ve secured a better seed and a matchup with the young Commanders by beating the Seattle Seahawks. Instead, Sean McVay sat his entire offense, ultimately ensuring worse seeding. As one of the best coaches in the NFL, I trust a confident McVay.
The Rams are underestimated this season because of a tough start due to injury. Without much of their offensive line and their best receiver, Puka Nacua, they went 1-4 through their bye week. Then, they went 9-3 after everyone returned in Week 7, dominating the league's second toughest schedule. Notably, the Rams defeated the Vikings by 10 points in Week 8, just one week removed from returning key pieces. Since, the Rams have only heated up.
The most encouraging thing about this Los Angeles team is that they can win in many different ways. They are able to adapt to anything in front of them. Whether it’s a 40+ point shootout against Buffalo or a single-digit grinder in San Francisco, they can get it done. It’s a testament to the experience and championship DNA of Stafford and McVay.
In Week 18, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold finally showed his true colors. In the most important game of his career, he had his worst performance of the season. He sailed passes over open receivers and left four touchdowns on the field while inside the 10-yard line. Perhaps this has to do with the pressure of the moment, but it also came from crumbling under the Lions’ blitz schemes. I expect Sean McVay to cook up some unique defensive packages and have Sam Darnold “seeing ghosts” once again.
Without further ado, let the games begin.
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