3 Cinderella Teams, 2 Massive Upsets, and 1 Champion to Consider For Your Bracket
The Madness has begun. Last night, the First Four kicked off with Saint Francis taking on Alabama State and it did not disappoint. With the game knotted at 68 a piece with three seconds to go, Micah Simpson of Alabama State launched a Hail Mary pass the length of the floor, the ball was tipped, and caught by Noah Br—I mean Amarr Knox (sorry Bears fans)—and put in the basket with 0.7 seconds remaining. If this first four thriller is any indication of what’s to come, we’re in for an action-packed two weeks.
Let’s look forward to Thursday when the games really matter. Year after year, fans all over the world try crafting the perfect bracket. Some research for hours and some pick their favorite mascots. I find that the more research I do, the worse I perform.
March Madness is completely random, so take my advice with a grain of salt. That said, I have six big bracket choices to consider before tip-off on Thursday afternoon—three Cinderellas, two huge upsets, and one champion. Let’s get into it.
Three Cinderella Teams
1. Drake Bulldogs
Drake has all the tools to be a classic Cinderella team. They hang their hat on the defensive end, allowing the fewest points in the entire NCAA (58.4). Offensively, they play at a very slow tempo and have guards who have a knack for controlling the pace of a game.
Star guard Bennett Stirtz will play a major role in conducting the offense. He led the Missouri Valley Conference with 19.1 points per game and was second in assists with 5.7 per game. His assist-to-turnover ratio is high and so are his splits, making him one of the most efficient guards in college basketball. Everybody knows that to make a run, you need to have a star guard.
While they are in the upper quartile of NCAA teams in terms of three-point percentage, the Bulldogs offense revolves around second-chance opportunities with their solid offensive rebound percentage and their 11th-ranked free throw rate.
Drake is the whole package, and their got a beatable section of the bracket in front of them. Missouri is a weak six-seed who plays at a very fast tempo and will struggle to play at Drake’s slow pace. Their hallmark is their free throw rate which is negated by Drake’s strong rate. I have them beating Texas Tech who has been terrible against good competition this year, and even picked them over Rick Pitino’s St. John’s team.
The Bulldogs, who won 30 games for the first time in program history, are my number one candidate to make a Cinderella run.
2. BYU Cougars
It’s hard to be a Cinderella when you’re a six-seed, but if you make the final four, I believe you qualify. The Cougars have that type of potential. They had won nine straight games before losing to Houston in the Big 12 semifinals and their tandem of NBA draft prospect, Egor Demin, and leading scorer, Richie Saunders, should be frightening for any team.
Saunders shot 51% from the field in that 10-game run that includes the Houston loss and it helped contribute to BYU’s impressive 57.2% effective field goal percentage which is third among all teams in the tournament, trailing only Liberty and Duke.
Part of what comes with a great effective field goal percentage is making a lot of threes which BYU can do. They are first among tournament teams in three-pointers made per game with 10.7. Last year’s leader in threes going into the tournament was Alabama, and they made a surprising final-four run as a four-seed. Demin averages 5.4 assists per game with many of them coming to BYU’s shooters on the perimeter, which is part of what makes him such an exciting prospect.
BYU’s first-round game against VCU will be difficult, but if they win, they’d likely play a weak three-seed in Wisconsin who has the same win percentage against top-25 teams that BYU does. From there, the sky is the limit.
3. McNeese Cowboys
Admittedly, my love for McNeese is only half related to basketball. The other half comes from the videos of their team manager, Amir Khan, carrying a massive speaker blasting “In & Out” by Lud Foe on McNeese’s walk from the locker room to the court. You’ve got to see it for yourself.
Now, I might just be superstitious, but McNeese’s walkout looks similar to another team’s walkout. Last year, NC State went viral for their electric walkout to “Get in With Me” by emerging rapper BossMan Dlow. NC State, an 11 seed, went on to reach the Final Four.
I believe that vibes alone can take McNeese to the sweet sixteen, but they also have the skills to pay the bills. Defensively, the Cowboys are 18th in the country in turnover rate and a respectable 39th in effective field goal defense. They also rank in the top 30 in the country in experience.
Two Massive Upsets
1. Gonzaga over Houston
An eight-seed has eliminated a one-seed in four of the last five tournaments, and I suspect Gonzaga to be the team that carries on that trend. The Zags have a first-round date with Georgia, and if they win, they will face Houston in all likelihood.
They are a great offensive team with the second-highest points per game in the NCAA, trailing only Alabama. They also lead the country in assists and assist-to-turnover ratio. They are incredibly well coached by Mark Few and have reached the sweet sixteen in nine straight tournaments, including once as an 11 seed.
Houston has had their fair share of tournament success in the last decade, they have lost in the sweet sixteen as the one seed in their section in back-to-back years. They pride themselves on stifling opponents on defense but gave up 95 points to Texas A&M in the round of 16 last year, and 89 to Miami in the sweet sixteen the year before.
Gonzaga fits the mold of those teams. They are a great offensive team with the second-highest points per game in the NCAA, trailing only Alabama. They also lead the country in assists and assist-to-turnover ratio. They are incredibly well-coached by Mark Few and have reached the sweet sixteen in nine straight tournaments, including once as an 11 seed.
Houston is in their first season with Jamal Shead and I believe it will cause their offense to get stagnant in the most important moments of the game. All of this is reason enough for me to pick Gonzaga through to the sweet sixteen.
2. High Point over Purdue
Since 2018, seven 13 seeds have won first-round games which is more than one per year. Scanning the field, I see 4th seeded Purdue as the most vulnerable of the four to an upset. Purdue’s BPI rank indicates that they should be a sixth seed instead of a four and their 4-7 record against the top-25 is unimpressive.
Most concerning is Purdue’s leaky defense. They are 350th in the country in opponent two-point percentage. That’s good news for High Point who is 15th in the nation in two-point percentage. The Panthers will be able to generate points which their already doing at a high clip to being with. Their 81.7 points per game is 18th in the NCAA.
High Point is extremely experienced and they are one of the deepest teams in the country. That’s not to mention that they’ve won 14 straight games which will give them supreme confidence heading into the tournament.
Purdue is transitioning to life with two-time reigning player of the year Zach Edey, and given their history of early exits in recent years (they lost to a 13th, 15th, and 16th seed in consecutive years), I wouldn’t be surprised if High Point got the best of them.
One Champion
Florida Gators
UConn is attempting to become the first team to threepeat since 1973, but don’t bet your money on them. In fact, bet on the team that I have slated to take them out in the round of 32. That would be the Florida Gators.
Florida has all the makings of a championship team. Let’s start with Walter Clayton, who is averaging 17.5, 3.8, and 4.3 and shooting close to 38% from three. Clayton doesn’t just put up great stats, but he is one of the most experienced guards in the NCAA. History tells us that the teams with experienced guards usually go the farthest. Last year, that was Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban for UConn. Mark Sears was the primary reason for Alabama’s run. Christian Braun and Ochai Agbaji for Kansas, Davion Mitchell and MaCio Teague for Baylor, Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome for UVA…you get the idea.
Florida has so many different bodies to throw at any opponent that play with high energy and are very talented. Rather than saying they wear down their opponents or light up the scoreboard, I’d say that they just come at you with overwhelming force.
Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon run the floor with unreal speed and doggedness, and Alijah Martin and Will Richad provide strong reinforcement for Clayton in the backcourt. Even Reuben Chinyelu can dominate down low.
I could give you stats, but instead, I’m going to give you their body of work. In their last six games, they are 6-0 with five wins against top-25 opponents and scored over 85 points in every game. They crushed 12th-ranked Texas A&M, beat Alabama on the road, and destroyed Ole Miss. Then in the SEC tournament, they beat Missouri by 14, Alabama by 22, and Tennessee by nine.
Florida is playing at another level right now, and is scorching hot at the right time.
