3 Teams I Except to Surprise Everyone
Once again, I apologize for getting an article out late; I chose these teams in the preseason but wasn’t able to finish the explanations before the conclusion of an excellent week 1. Here are four teams that I think are better than everyone says they are, and if you disagree, pick your own four teams and comment them down below.
1. Washington Commanders
I’ve seen season projections saying the Commanders will win 3 or 4 games, and I believe this is blasphemy. This is the 4th straight year that Washington’s defensive line is ranked top-3 by PFF. This season, with Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne all in their primes and Chase Young returning from injury, I believe they have potential to be more disruptive than the Eagles and the 49ers, who landed above them in the PFF rankings. The return of Young signifies more than just one recovery though. Last year, the Commanders were 21st in the league in health, so the math indicates that they won’t have to deal with losing players like Young, Kamren Curl, and several offensive linemen, all of whom missed time. As for what’s around them, the Eagles were the healthiest squad in the league last season, making them a bit more vulnerable this year. And the Giants, who had the easiest strength of schedule of any team in 2022, are sure to regress.
What do the Commanders have on offense though? Well, once again, the talent speaks for itself. Terry McLaurin has posted three straight 1,000 yard seasons, and has been a fantastic deep ball threat while the quarterbacks around him have been orbit of ideas rather than good players. In those three seasons, the QBs that played at least five games with McLaurin had passer rating ranks of 25th, 26th, 28th, 19th, and 29th, and the seasons in which they started. And yes, perhaps the Sam Howell experiment is even more unknown than Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, Taylor Heinicke, and Carson Wentz (who the Commanders managed to win 7, 7, and 8 games with) ever were, but it’s clear that the Howell has a higher ceiling as this pint in his career than any of those guys. He’s also raved about by teammates and coaches, and is 2-0 in career starts.
Howell and McLaurin are not the only promising young player son offense for Washington, though. Jahan Dotson was a great young rookie in 2022 that I picked to be a breakout player in year two in a separate article. If Dotson had managed to stay healthy for all 17 games last season, his stats would have resembled those of George Pickens and Drake London, who are both cornerstone pieces for their franchises. Secondly, the Commanders might not have Bijan Robinson, but they’ve got Brian, who caught a TD pass from Howell in week 1 against Arizona. Robinson, after missing the first quarter of the season from being shot in the leg, was productive, totaling 797 yards in 12 games. These two young players should go a long way in elevating Washington in 2023.
Last note: The additions of Super Bowl champion, Andrew Wylie, at right tackle, and the 16th overall pick in the draft, Emmanuel Forbes, will both make difference on their respective sides of the ball.
Frequently, teams that I feel can be better than projected have advantages between the lines—in the analytics side of the game. For Washington, it’s the opposite. I simply believe in their roster.
My projection: 10-7, 6 seed, lose in Divisional Round
2. Miami Dolphins
This has been the summer of the Jets. But before all of the attention surrounding New York, many people had Miami as a dark horse to win the division and make it out of the AFC. So, why has all the hype disappeared? Well, August didn’t treat Miami well. Jalen Ramsey injured his knee in practice, and will be sidelined for at least six weeks. Christian Wilkins has quietly chosen to hold out until his gets paid. And, Terron Armstead, Miami’s pro-bowl left tackle is also out. When Miami gets those guys back, I believe they possess a top-3 roster on paper, and perhaps the most well-rounded in the AFC.
Let’s start with the obvious. Tua Tagovailoa led the entire NFL in QBR last season, and only isn’t considered as a top QB because of his concussion issues and shaky play down the stretch of the season. But the numbers don’t lie, and Tagovailoa was 8-0 last season in games where he played all four quarters until losing to the Chargers in week 14. Part of the reason for this is Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle who are not only a top tier WR tandem in the league, but also bring a level of speed to the table that teams simply do not know who to guard. When those guys are healthy to make Tagovailoa’s job easier, that’s when he can be a top-5 QB in the league.
Now, the defense. This side of the ball was Miami’s biggest weakness last year, especially when it came to stopping the run. But they added David Long Jr. from Tennessee in the offseason, and will get significant improvement from guys like Jaelan Phillips—who clinched Miami’s week 1 win with a sack—and Jerome Baker. Plus, 4-time pro-bowl linebacker Bradley Chubb—who Miami acquired in the middle of last season—should settle in in 2023 after struggling to acclimate in 2022. Last season, the Dolphins defense finished 8th in DVOA, which tells me that the root of their eight losses is mostly health-based.
The one minor criticism about this team is that they were 6-3 in one score games last year, which would cause them to regress by a game or two, strictly following the numbers. But when thinking about the overall roster when healthy, I believe that Miami is the class of the AFC.
My projection: 11-6, 6 seed, lose in Super Bowl
3. Tennessee Titans
This one may come is more of a surprise than the others, because at first glance, the Titans have one of the most forgettable, not to mention thin, rosters in the league. People will also point to the Jaguars, saying that it’s their time. I’m not so sure. Last season, before plummeting to a 7-10 finish, Tennessee was 7-3—tied for third place in the AFC. So, what happened? Well, much of it wasn’t football related. In 2022, the Titans finished last place in total health, according to Spotrac. A whopping 49.92% of their entire cap space was injured at least once last season, more than double every team except for Arizona and Denver. To give some perspective, The Colts, Broncos, Rams, and Cardinals had preseason win totals of 10, 10, 10.5, and 9.5, respectively. Their actual win totals were 4, 5, 5, and 4—so incredibly bad, that the Broncos actually look like royalty winning 50% of their games. It’s no coincidence that all of the these teams had incredibly disappointing seasons, though They ranked 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st in health. And the Titans, who had it much worse than all of them, squeaked out 7 games.
Health wasn’t the only thing bugging Tennessee, though. They were unlucky in many different ways. In 2022, every single quarterback that they played against was the starter for their team, making the Titans the only squad to face all 17 starters. In fact, they played just five possessions against backups (about 98.5%), and those were all in garbage time. This is extremely unprecedented. Teams that play against starting QB’s on 90% of their defensive snaps improve by about 2.5 wins each year. If this is any indication, the Titans should improve by at least three wins.
Now, from a personnel perspective, Ryan Tannehill had the 12th highest QBR of any player last season despite his lack of weapons on the edge. Derrick Henry is still the best runningback in the league in my opinion, and if DeAndre Hopkins can be 75% of his best self, he can still be a quality WR1. As for the defense, the Titans added two quality starters in Azeez Al-Shaair, and Sean Murphy-Bunting. Add those two to a core of Jeffery Simmons (all-pro last season), Harold Landry III (pro-bowler last season), Kevin Byard (2x pro-bowler), and Denico Autry (17 sacks in the last two seasons), and you can’t point to many holes in the Titans defense.
Finally, Tennessee lost two games off the foot of Randy Bullock. In week 1, he missed a 47 yard field goal that would have given the Titans a 23-21 win over the Giants. In week 16, against the Chargers, Bullock missed a crucial 51-yarder in the 4th quarter, that in hindsight, could have lifted the Titans to a victory.
Part of the equation is that I don’t believe that the Jaguars are all that. Strangely, Jacksonville hardly made any moves in the offseason, banking on the re-emergence of Calvin Ridley, and that Trevor Lawrence will ascend. However, unlike Tennessee, they did not upgrade their sub-par defense which allowed the 9th most yards per game last year—worse than the Titans and any other AFC playoff team, and their schedule is slightly more difficult than Tennessee.
Everyone is writing of the Titans, but I don’t think the writing is on the wall for Mike Vrabel’s guys just yet.
My projection: 10-7, win division, 4 seed, lose in Wild Card round
Patriots > Dolphins