Debating ESPN's NBA Win Projections
About a week prior to opening night, Kevin Pelton, a senior writer at ESPN, releases his projected win totals for every team. Pelton, who I listen to from time to time on the Lowe Post Podcast, is very knowledgeable about the biggest factors of winning, and the trends and patterns that make certain teams great and other teams not. Pelton doesn’t just guess the number of game won by each team like many writers do—his model is a sea of projection, using past data to predict how many games players will play, and the degree to which that will affect their teams. Another focal point of his projections is using last season’s trends to predict fortunate teams to decline, and less fortunate teams to improve For instance, the Nuggets’ opponents hit an uncharacteristically low percentage of their 3-pointers last season (with the Nuggets’ defensive strength factored in. The opposite is the case for the Hawks who Pelton has winning 2.8 more games than last year despite their roster being, for the most part, the same.
But no list is perfect, and plenty of Pelton’s projections had me scratching my head a little bit, so for today’s piece, I’ll be reacting to the 2023-2024 team win projections with 10 takes of my own.
For starters, here’s a visual of his projections (his article is only accessible for ESPN+ subscribers).
AGREE: The Celtics should have the most projected wins in the history of this series.
The previous record was the 2022 Celtics, who were given 53.9 wins, and this Celtics team is an upgrade from last year. Robert Williams was even more injury prone than Kristaps Porzingis and half as talented. Jrue Holiday is a major boost from Marcus Smart on offense, and perhaps on defense too. Though Boston lost Grant Williams to Dallas and traded Malcolm Brogdon in the Holiday deal, those gaps will be filled by Derrick White’s increased role, and the signings of Oshae Brissett, Lamar Stevens, and Dalano Banton, as well as second round pick Jordan Walsh.
The Celtics are built for Pelton’s model because Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are hardly ever injured, and they are the most well-rounded duo in the league. For a model that is rather conservative, 54.3 is a high number, but a valid projection.
DISAGREE: The Nuggets will finish third place with 46.4 wins.
One of Pelton’s arguments for Denver falling down the standings is that NBA champions tend not to emphasize the regular season. Well, even if that is the case, Nikola Jokic missed 13 games last year, and Jamal Murray missed 17 games—those numbers should decrease next year especially with the NBA’s new load management rules in place.
Secondly, the Nuggets haven’t won fewer than 46 games since 2017, when they won 46. Their core is in their prime, and expecting them to be worse than any of the last five years is frankly insulting. What’s also insulting do a team like Denver who does not take disrespect lightly is the underestimation of Nikola Jokic’s greatness. The graph below combines the fact that Jokic is a Hall Of Fame caliber player, and the Nuggets are consistently a great team, putting the Nuggets’ projection into perspective.
Of the six NBA champions in the last 25 seasons who were 1 seeds the next season with a 2-time MVP on their team, the Nuggets are projected to be worse than every one of them but the Lakers. And that’s a Lakers’ team whose 2-time MVP—LeBron James—hadn’t won the award in seven years. Jokic is in his prime. In fact, the projected version of the 2024 Nuggets, who are thought to have been the best championship team in the last five years, have the 5th lowest win percentage on the 25 teams on the graph. The Nuggets absolutely deserve better than what Pelton has given them.
BOLD PREDICTION: The Thunder will make the leap to a top-4 seed.
The Thunder remind me of the 2021-2022 Grizzlies who took a leap from a 9th seed, play-in team to a 56-win two seed. Their roster didn’t pop out at you, but rather one player did—Ja Morant. Aside from the electrifying 24-year old, the Grizzlies’s DNA was in their chemistry, toughness, and togetherness. After all, most of their core had been together for several years. Much of that core of Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson, and Tyus Jones had played together for at least three years. They were also all young players, meaning the team camaraderie was at an all-time high which we saw throughout the season. Even their coach, Taylor Jenkins, was young, new to the scene, and hungry.
OKC finds themselves in a very similar situation, being led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with a young, well-balanced supporting cast of Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Joe, and young coach, Mark Daigneault. With the Thunder making the jump they did last year, it seems entirely fair to expect an even bigger one this season. In fact no team’s projected win total increased more than OKC’s from last season to this one.
This positive trajectory is no fluke, and this youthful Thunder team is beginning to boom. The league will be put on notice this season.
AGREE: Cleveland has a strong chance of finishing 2nd in the East.
As I said before, I believe the Celtics are in line for a first place finish, and I think second place will come down to Cleveland and Milwaukee. As we know, one of the most important factors in regular season success is health. Here’s a visual showing the games played by the Cavs’ and the Bucks’ two best players in the last two seasons.
Availability is the best ability, and Cleveland has that on their side. It’s also fair to expect the Cavaliers to outperform their preseason expectations. Last season, among teams with a winning record, the Cavaliers tied for the highest number of wins above expected. The season before, they had the highest wins above expected of any team. Additionally, teams led by Donovan Mitchell are 4-2 against the preseason win total O/U.
Roster wise, Cleveland has filled some of their biggest holes—the main one being three point shooting. They acquired Max Strus, who has the ability to make shots from anywhere on the floor and shot 41% from deep two years ago, as well as Georges Niang, who has eclipsed the 40% benchmark in five straight seasons. GM, Mike Gansey, also picked up Damian Jones from the Jazz to help fix Cleveland’s defensive rebounding woes that sold their playoff chances last year.
DISAGREE: The Kings will dip from 3rd to 7th, and their win from 48 to 43.
Pelton only made one argument about Sacramento, and it was that their health was top-notch last season, and not a single starter missed significant time. Here’s a graph showing what happens to the healthiest team in the league in the following season.
Sure, there are two big red lines here. But The Hornets declined to the 24th healthiest team in 2023 (not even factoring in the Miles Bridges suspension), and the Blazers fell to 27th in health—a change that shouldn’t be expected in Sac-town. Overall, there is no clear trend here so it’s unfair to assume that the Kings will get worse.
Now, if I had to argue that Sacramento was poised to decline, I would point to their record in close games. Sacramento was 7th best in games decided by five points or fewer, and De’Aaron Fox was a level of clutch that probably won’t be replicated for years. Even so, the Kings core has been kept together, and players like Keegan Murray and Davion Mitchell will only improve, making this team one of the deepest, most talented teams in the league.
BOLD PREDICTION: The Raptors will blow it up midseason and finish in 13th place.
To me, the Raptors guard situation is the worst of any NBA team. Dennis Schroder and Malachi Flynn will be the primary ball-handlers. Gary Trent Jr. is more of a catch and shoot guy, and OG Anunoby is an off-ball, defensive-minded player. Thus, much of Toronto’s offense will cycle through Pascal Siakam, which as we’ve seen over the years, can get messy. Scottie Barnes is a talented young player, but plays very similarly to Siakam, which could cause further disorganization.
Aside from primary ball-handlers, Kyle Lowry and Fred Vanvleet, over the years, Nick Nurse has been the Raptors’ steadiest force. Well, out with Nurse (he’s in Philly now), and in with Darko Rajaković, who is a good future investment but may night a year or two to settle in to to his first career head coaching job at this level. 27 of the Raptors first 41 games (the first half of the season), are against playoff teams from last year, and if they find themselves multiple games under .500, my guess is that Anunoby, who has been a subject of trade talks for years, will be dealt, and Siakam could be on the chopping block too.
4 More Takes
The Lakers will be better than a play-in team thanks to stellar defense, serviceable three-point shooting, and a terrific season from Anthony Davis.
The Clippers and the Mavericks will be fighting for the play-in. If the Clippers continue to struggle with health, and the Mavericks play like they finished last season, they are at the bottom of the pack of 12 teams that can contend for a top spot in the West.
The Rockets, Spurs, and Bulls will all clear their win totals. The Rockets improved defensively, they’ve got better veteran presence, they drafted well, and Ime Udoka is a great coach. Wembanyama is enough of a difference maker that he should catapult the Spurs to at least 30 wins. The Bulls finished 12-6 last year, and some of that will carry over to 2024 especially if Lonzo Ball can return this season.
The Timberwolves will not finish 2nd in the west. There are too many star players in the West better than Anthony Edwards, and the T-Wolves lack the cohesion of a team like Memphis who leapt out of nowhere into the second seed in the 2021-2022 season, or this year’s OKC team.
Thanks for reading, and make sure to check out my full NBA season projections here.