How Do You Stop This?
More so than any sport, the NBA playoffs are a chess match. After every game, coaches need to make adjustments to their lineups, individual matchups, playing time, and a multitude of other factors. So far in the second round, we’ve been lucky enough to have four competitive series’. The three remaining matchups in the second round all sit at 3-2, meaning coaching staffs are intensely scribbling on the chalkboard, looking to modify their plans of attack to outlast their opponents.
After watching a healthy amount of the second round, I’ve pinpointed the biggest adjustment every team needs to make in their series.
Minnesota Timberwolves
In game two, Minnesota made Nikola Jokic more uncomfortable than he’s ever been. Particularly when Jokic was at the top of the key, the T-Wolves made life tough for the 3-time MVP who usually orchestrates the offense without fail from that position. Naz Reid got up into the body of Jokic and applied constant pressure, waving his arms and digging into Jokic’s lower half. The same goes for Karl-Anthony Towns who bought tremendous defensive intensity in games 1 and 2.
The Nuggets have now reeled off three straight wins with their backs against the wall and Jokic looks far too comfortable for Minnesota’s liking. After playing one of his worst games ever just last week, Jokic posted 40 points, 13 assists, and zero turnovers in game 5. With Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shooting the cover off the ball alongside regularly great shooters in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, the Wolves must properly apply their skilled array of big men and make life difficult on Jokic.
To do so, they need to keep bringing the same physicality and don’t let Jokic start his attack eight feet inside the three-point arc. Minnesota has to throw multiple bodies at the Joker and try to confuse him as much as they possibly can.
Denver Nuggets
Denver struggled to get going early on in games against the Lakers. They only won the first quarter once in that series, and all in all, in the playoffs, they’ve had a point differential of -17 if they lose the first quarter. Their point differential when they win the first quarter is +59, and they only have one loss.
Game 2 was the only game in which Denver lost the first quarter, and it was a landslide from there on out. When they establish themselves early in the first quarter, the Nuggets stand a great chance of winning. Jamal Murray, especially, is a key to the Nuggets first quarter success. In their two losses vs Minnesota, Murray never scored in the opening period. In their wins, Murray still hasn’t been great, but 4 points per first quarter has been serviceable for a Nuggets team that has help elsewhere.
If Denver wins the first quarter in game 6, I’ll take them nine times out of ten.
Oklahoma City Thunder
More than any other matchup in the postseason thus far, Thunder vs Mavericks has become a true chess match. As expected, and as I predicted in my Thunder Analysis Article, Josh Giddey has become a liability on offense. In the second half of game three, head coach, Mark Daigneault, decided to replace Giddey in the starting lineup with Aaron Wiggins who is a more capable shooter and defender. In game 5, Isaiah Joe started in place of Giddey.
Jason Kidd has assigned Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively to Giddey on defense, meaning they can sag off Giddey and leave him wide open to shoot threes while they stay in the paint. Giddey is just 3-14 from three so far in the series, and is a -25 even though the Thunder have outscored the Mavs by one point through five games. At this point, the Thunder are essentially playing 4.5 on 5, and can hardly afford to have Giddey on the floor.
Wiggins, on the other hand, has been a productive player for OKC. He is shooting 56% from the field and 38% from three in the playoffs, and averaging 10.3 PPG in the second round. Joe has also been an effective replacement for Giddey. Joe is the type of player that Daigneault can draw up plays for in big moments, is shooting 11-24 from three in the playoffs, and has shot over 40% from three in the last two seasons. Both represent great alternatives for Giddey who likely won’t see much of the floor for the rest of the playoffs assuming OKC can stay alive in game 6.
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks have control of the series, but there is more on the horizon than knocking out the Thunder in round two. The Mavericks are looking to get to their first NBA Finals since 2011 and do to so, they will need the freshest version of Luka Doncic that they can get. Doncic, who injured his knee in game 3 of the Clippers series has looked hobbled aside from both game 5’s that the Mavs have played in. Still, Luka is not his usual self, and Dallas will need to rely on other options to get them over the hump.
With Luka unable to carry a massive workload with his injury, much of the scoring and playmaking burden shifts to Kyrie Irving when Luka is off the floor. However, Kyrie has only averaged 14.4 in this series, meaning the other guys (mainly P.J. Washington) have had to step up.
When Luka and Kyrie are off the floor/injured/struggling, it’ll be up to Jason Kidd to find the rotation that works best without them. In game two, with Luka off the floor and Kyrie subbing in and out of the game, the Mavs went on a crucial 16-4 run to take what was a 77-77 tie game late in the third quarter to a convincing 93-81 lead that was essentially the difference in the game. Alongside Kyrie, a mixture of Washington, Derrick Jones Jr., Dereck Lively III, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Dante Exum excelled in the non-Luka minutes.
But you can’t expect that type of production from role players every night. Unless… can you? That’ll be up to Jason Kidd and the Mavericks supporting cast to answer.
Indiana Pacers
Of the six teams competing for a spot in the conference finals, the Pacers coaching issues are by far the most glaring of any team. After assigning Aaron Nesmith to guard Jalen Brunson in games 3 and 4, for some reason, Rick Carlisle put a smaller Andrew Nembhard on Brunson in game 5. Nembhard was the primary defender on Brunson for games 1 and 2 as well as five, and in those games, Brunson has averaged 38.7 PPG. In games 3 and 4, he only averaged 22.0 PPG.
Nembhard is only 6’3 while Nesmith is 6’5, far more physical, and far more athletic. He can contest Brunson’s lethal midrange jumper more easily and can stay with him in the high pick-and-roll.
There are other alternatives to guard the Knicks’ star. T.J. McConnell is incredibly pesky and smart and his mosquito-like defense can annoy Brunson to no end. Even Pascal Siakam provides size and athleticism for the smaller Brunson. Siakam also has nobody to guard now that New York is only starting one player over 6’4.
At this point, Carlisle needs to realize that the answer to guard Brunson is anybody but Nembhard. If he does, I believe the Pacers stand a chance to win this series in seven games.
New York Knicks
(This section was written prior to game five, but I chose to keep the original version to highlight how Tom Thibodeau solved all of the problems I outlined and proved me wrong in the process).
The Knicks don’t have a coaching issue. They have a roster issue. They do not have enough players. After playing nine straight tight games to open the playoffs with their stars playing 44+ minutes per game, the fumes that New York was running on died in a 32-point loss to Indiana in game 4. The players are clearly fatigued, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson are out for the season, and OG Anunoby and Bojan Bogdanovic are out for the foreseeable future.
Thibodeau had to dig deep into his bench in games three and four, playing Shake Milton, Alec Burks, and Jericho Sims for at least 15 minutes. Only Burks was partially effective, and he did most of his damage when the game was already out of reach.
Thibodeau will have to decide if the double-big starting lineup featuring Precious Achiuwa and Isaiah Hartenstein is the way to go, or, perhaps, if he should shift Josh Hart to the power forward spot and hope that he can hold his own against Pascal Siakam given that there are no non-shooters in the Pacers starting lineup.
I frankly do not expect New York to win another game in this series given the injuries they are dealing with, but if they are to steal game 5, they’ll heed help from anybody outside of the Villanova Big Three, and that starts with how Tom Thibodeau structures his rotations.
