Three Stats About the 2024 Playoffs that Will Blow Your Mind
There are endless basketball databases with every statistic, metric, number, and graph that you can possibly imagine. I don’t have access to most of those databases, but using NBA.com’s large canvas of stats, I found three particular ones about this year’s intriguing playoff race that will leave you puzzled. Without wasting words, let’s get into it.
Harden’s Heroics in Isolation
Currently, of all players with any number of isolation possessions in the playoffs, James Harden is in first place in isolation points per possession with 1.47. Harden used to make a living in iso situations—it was his signature move in his MVP-level seasons, but has trailed off in recent years, and his numbers in isolation are unrecognizable compared to the late 2010s. That’s why the revival of his iso game his been so critical for a Clippers team that has won two games against Dallas without Kawhi Leonard.
These numbers are not a result of statistical luck either. He’s second in isolation frequency in the playoffs and tied for first with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with 11.0 iso PPG. The difference is that SGA—who was third in iso points per possession with 1.11 in the regular season—is only scoring 1.05 PPP in the playoffs.
Particularly at the end of game four against Dallas, Harden called for iso time and time again against P.J. Washington, and time and time again, he got to his spot for a clutch bucket.
Here are Harden’s iso PPP in the playoffs since 2015 (the earliest year I could find play type data for).
It seemed as though Harden had mastered his craft by the 2020-2021 playoffs with Brooklyn and that he had completely fallen off by the 2022-2023 season, but as you can see, this year, his isolation productivity has spiked. What’s more is that Harden’s regular season iso PPP was only 1.13, so his 1.47 average is extremely surprising and is giving the Clippers a chance in the playoffs.
Pacers’ Prolific Passing
The Pacers have had the best offense in the league all year due to precise three-point shooting, pace, and Tyrese Haliburton’s generational passing ability, but efficiency has helped their cause too and has helped them average 116.5 PPG through four games against the Bucks. The stat that best exhibits their offensive efficiency is centered around assist to turnover ratio.
Playoff League Leaders in Assist to Turnover Ratio:
Andrew Nembhard: 19.00 AST/TO
Pascal Siakam: 19.00 AST/TO
Myles Turner: 13.00 AST/TO
These numbers are unprecedented from three guys on the same team, and as a result, the Nembhard / Siakam / Turner / Haliburton / Nesmith lineup has the highest plus minus (+52) of any lineup in the playoffs. That’s a big sample size as well—they have the 2nd most minutes together falling short of Denver’s starting lineup.
Here’s a chart showing every playoff team’s assist to turnover ratio in the playoffs so far.
As you can see, the Pacers are blowing every other team out of the water in this category. Their 3.51 AST/TO ratio is 1.05 better than second-ranked Denver. Denver is 1.07 better than 15th ranked Phoenix. It’s clear that the Pacers aren’t just hitting a bunch of threes or getting lucky with transition points. They are being very careful with the basketball and its a big reason why they have a 3-1 lead over Milwaukee.
If the Pacers keep up their 3.51 AST/TO ratio pace, that would be the best figure in a first round series in NBA history.
Boston: Not So Wicked in the 4th Quarter
Boston is up comfortably 3-1 in one of the most lopsided playoff matchups on paper in this century against the Miami Heat. At one point, they were up by 40 on the Heat in game one and have held 25 and 20 point leads in the fourth quarter in games three and four. They’ve outscored the Heat by 44 points in the series (the third best for any team), and yet, some of the fourth quarter struggles that have loomed inside of TD Garden for years have returned in this series.
This is a graph of the Celtics point differentials in every quarter of this series.
The Celtics have only been outscored in six of 16 quarters in this series, and four of them were fourth quarters. All in all, the Celtics have been outscored by the Heat by 30 points in the series which is the worst fourth quarter plus minus for any team in the playoffs.
Additionally, the Heat are first place in fourth quarter FG% (54.5%), 3PFG% (50.0%), and turnovers (1.8). They are also third in PPG (28.3). On the flip side, Boston is 14th in fourth quarter PPG (20.3), 13th in FG% (41.9%), and 11th in both 3PFG% (32.0%), and turnovers (4.0).
I realize that some of the minutes (particularly in game one) came with reserves in play. But the Celtics have historically struggled in the clutch in the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era, and if they want to complete their long-awaited championship run, they’ll need to come together down the stretch of games.
I’ll have three MORE crazy stats that will sweep the remains of your blown mind away coming out later this week. Stay tuned!