Week 16 Power Rankings and What Every Team Should Put on Their Christmas List
Buffalo’s romp of Dallas, Seattle’s upset of Philly, Baltimore’s convincing win over Jacksonville, and the Bengals’ miraculous victory against the Vikings were just a few games in a loaded week 15 that helped create a very confusing, messy canvas at the top of the power rankings. As you’ll see, barely anything separates teams 3-8. The top 8 aren’t set in stone either. Are the Colts, Bucs, Browns or Rams ready to take the next step, and will either of last year Super Bowl’s teams crumble enough to make me lose faith in them? Those questions are all answered below in the week 16 power rankings that rank every team from one to 32 and show what every team should ask for from Santa Claus for Christmas.
32. Carolina Panthers (2-12, no change)
What should be on their Christmas list: The number one pick in the 2024 draft
The last thing Carolina could have imagined after trading up for Bryce Young prior to last season’s draft was being 2-12 without their own pick. Right now, Carolina has the worst roster in the league, and instead of improving it in the first round in the draft, the Bears will have their pick. The Panthers will have to find other ways to build their squad, or else Bryce Young’s development will be stunted.
31. Washington Commanders (4-10, down 2)
What should be on their Christmas list: Eric Bieniemy as their head coach
Bieniemy helped transform Washington’s offense in the first half of the season. No one benefitted more than Sam Howell, who before the team essentially imploded after week 12, led the entire league in passing yards. Ron Rivera’s departure is inevitable, and Bieniemy can help bring professionalism and discipline as well as an elite offensive mind that Washington has lacked for quite some time.
30. New England Patriots (3-11, up 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: Caleb Williams
We’ve already seen Ryan Poles showcase his loyalty towards Justin Fields in last year’s draft when he had the chance to take Bryce Young but decided to trade away the pick. I believe he will go the same route by drafting Marvin Harrison, leaving Caleb Williams in New England’s lap (assuming they maintain the #2 overall pick). Williams is a generational talent and is advertised as being able to help a team win now—something that the Patriots are no stranger to.
29. Arizona Cardinals (3-11, up 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: A defensive-minded draft (rounds 2-7)
The Cardinals are surprisingly set on offense. They have a fringe top-10 quarterback in Kyler Murray, potentially a first round talent at wide receiver, solid rookies in Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, and Paris Johnson looks great at left tackle. The defense has been Arizona’s kryptonite this season, but with some young talent, playoffs won’t be out of the question next year, especially in a weak NFC.
28. Los Angeles Chargers (5-9, down 2)
What should be on their Christmas list: A competent head coach
This shouldn’t be too much to ask for after Brandon Staley’s ugly tenure with Los Angeles was cut short after a 63-21 beatdown from the Raiders. Staley went 24-25 with one of the league’s better rosters, blew a 27-0 lead in the postseason, and was 3-5 in one-score games in 2023. Most importantly, Staley wasted important years of Justin Herbert’s young career. LA needs to turn things around with a good hire this offseason.
27. New York Jets (5-9, no change)
What should be on their Christmas list: An offensive line
According to sources, it seems Santa has already brought a healthy Aaron Rodgers to the Jets 53-man roster, so now, his elves need to build a new offensive line. GM, Joe Douglas, said in 2019 that his number one priority would be to bolster the offensive and defensive lines. He’s fulfilled half of that deal, but the O-Line is in shambles. It’s time to move on from Mekhi Becton, and find a new left tackle—ideally, Taliese Fuaga out of Oregon State—and the right side of the line needs to be improved in free agency in order to keep Rodgers upright next season.
26. New York Giants (5-9, down 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: 2025
“The earliest the Giants can realistically get out of Jones' contract is in 2025. It would be done before the fifth day of the 2025 league year when $12 million of Jones' $30 million 2025 base salary is fully guaranteed. At signing, $23 million of this $30 million was guaranteed for injury. The Giants will have $33.315 million of dead money -- a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team's roster -- by parting ways with Jones in 2025. This would be an $8.29 million cap savings because Jones' 2025 cap number is $41.605 million. Jones will have made $82 million for the two years he played with the Giants under his contract should this happen in 2025.” —CBS
25. Atlanta Falcons (6-8, down 4)
What should be on their Christmas list: Mistake-free quarterback play
Desmond Ridder is fifth in the league in turnovers, but not all turnovers are created equal. Ridder has had catastrophic interceptions in the redzone and several game-losing fumbles. Without Ridder’s dangerous play this season, Atlanta would have the lead in the NFC South with likely wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers in the last two weeks. Even if their quarterback was someone like Kenny Pickett or Jimmy Garoppolo, I believe the Falcons would be in playoff position.
24. Tennessee Titans (5-9, down 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: A secondary-based draft
Courtesy of Azeez Al-Shaair, Arden Key, and a big bounce-back season from Harold Landry III, the Titans have been fantastic against the run. However, the most important part of a defense, the secondary, has failed them. They are 22nd in yards allowed, 27th in completion percentage allowed, and have the fewest interceptions of any defense.
23. Chicago Bears (5-9, up 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: Marvin Harrison Jr.
I’m all about letting the Justin Fields experiment play out. Sure, Caleb Williams looks to have one of the highest ceilings of any quarterback drafted in this century, but Fields has proven to be one of the league’s more talented QBs, who has achieved notable statistical feats and improved since he entered the league despite playing for a team that has done him no favors. Go grab Harrison Jr., pair him with D.J. Moore, and I believe that you will see Fields excel.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7, down 2)
What should be on their Christmas list: The firing of Mike Tomlin
Coaches like Mike Tomlin are able to squeeze a 7-7 record out of a bad team which the Pittsburgh Steelers are. However, like Bill Belichick, defensive, hard-nosed coaches like him are going extinct. Brilliant offensive minds like Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel are taking over the league, and the Steelers need to get with the curve, especially with some young players with high ceilings.
21. Las Vegas Raiders (6-8, up 7)
What should be on their Christmas list: A second dose of Aidan O’Connell
O’Connell has shown enough in year one to be given a shot in 2024. Heck, he just helped the Raiders drop 63 on a division opponent. O’Connell has outplayed Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr from last year, played well in the preseason, and has only improved as the year has gone on. He has also brought out the best in Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer which has been a struggle in the past couple of seasons.
20. Green Bay Packers (7-7, down 6)
What should be on their Christmas list: Competent defense for three weeks
The big takeaway from last week is that Joe Barry’s defense is moribund and can’t even stop Baker Mayfield from posting the first perfect passer rating in the history of opponents at Lambeau Field. Quietly in that game, Jordan Love played very well and that continues a hot streak of games in which he has looked good. Barry’s defense will be matched up against three bottom-third offenses in Carolina, Minnesota, and Green Bay. If he can pull things together and let Love cook on offense, the Packers should be a playoff team.
19. Minnesota Vikings (7-7, down 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: 4th quarter defense
Minnesota isn’t going to get much more out of Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, Jaren Hall or whoever starts at quarterback in these last three weeks. What’s keeping the Vikings alive is Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense. In their last five games, the defense has allowed just 29 points through three quarters—by far the best in the league (a pace of 7.7 PPG) but has given up 47 points in the fourth quarter alone—near the worst in the league (37.6 PPG pace). If it weren’t for choke jobs to Denver, Chicago, and Cincinnati, the Vikings might be 10-4 right now.
18. Denver Broncos (7-7, down 6)
What should be on their Christmas list: An intermediate deep ball
It may look like Denver will get off easy with a soft remaining schedule against the Patriots, Chargers, and Raiders, but I don’t believe that to be the case. The Patriots defense is stubborn and the Raiders defense is 2nd best in the league since Antonio Pierce took over. Russell Wilson and the offense won’t be able to operate with screen passes, 4-yard slants, and the miracle deep shot to Courtland Sutton every once in a while. Finding Sutton, Jeudy, and Marvin Mims for 20-25-yard balls to keep the chains moving will be crucial to putting points on the board down the stretch of the season.
17. New Orleans Saints (7-7, up 5)
What should be on their Christmas list: No more Dennis Allen and Derek Carr
They are 7-7 with back-to-back blowout wins to maintain a tie for first place in their division, and yet no fans have a more sickening vibe than Who Dat Nation. The reason? They are sick of the head coach and the quarterback. Until New Orleans moves on from Allen and Carr, they will be stuck in a pit of mediocrity which Saints fans can’t stand after 15 years of Drew Brees. Saints fans are also frustrated by Allen, Carr, and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael because they don’t bring out the best in Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and stars on the defense.
16. Seattle Seahawks (7-7, no change)
What should be on their Christmas list: Elevated play from Kenneth Walker
The Seahawks are 7-3 when their leading rusher is Kenneth Walker, and 0-4 when it is Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet has carried a relatively big load this season, but in his last five games (the Seahawks are 1-4), he is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry. When Walker is hot, he also produces as a receiver. He has five games of at least 25 yards receiving this year.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, up 4)
What should be on their Christmas list: The best of Rachaad White
As strange as it sounds, this Baker Mayfield-led offense has been one of the best in the league at times this season including the last two weeks. Mayfield has been terrific recently, Mike Evans looks as good as he did with Tom Brady, and most importantly, Rachaad White’s production has taken a leap. Through 10 games, he was averaging 3.3 YPC, and in the last four games, he up to 4.6 YPC. It’s no coincidence that Tampa Bay is 3-1 in that span, and has seen their PPG leap from 19.2 to 26.
14. Los Angeles Rams (7-7, down 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: Improved quarterback containment
Since week 3, nine of the 12 quarterbacks that the Rams have faced have passed for more yards than their season average. Of the eight starters and backups in the Rams secondary, five of them are either second-year players or rookies, and although they’ve improved as the season goes on, Sean McVay needs his back line to play at a mediocre level at minimum if LA wants to make a playoff run.
13. Indianapolis Colts (8-6, up 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: A win in week 18
Indianapolis has Atlanta and Las Vegas in week 16 and 17—two very winnable games. Just one victory would put them at 9-7 which would most likely have them in the seventh spot based on tiebreakers with the Bengals and Texans. The Colts play the Texans at home in week 18 (either that game or Bills vs Dolphins will most likely become the Sunday night game), and a win would punch their ticket to the playoffs, which would be an incredible feat given that their preseason odds to make the postseason were +350—tied for 28th of all teams.
12. Houston Texans (8-6, up 3)
What should be on their Christmas list: A healthy CJ Stroud
Houston won’t get their rookie sensation for an important week 16 showdown with the Browns, for his concussion is on the more brutal side as far as concussions go—there was a recent report that Stroud is still bothered by bright lights. Although they pulled off a huge win last week with Case Keenum at QB, the Texans needed 70 minutes to score 19 points and were under their season average for yards per game despite running 72 plays—more than Cleveland’s league-leading average of 71.5 per game.
11. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6, down 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: A time machine back to 8-3
To tell you the truth, Jacksonville’s Christmas list should be about as long as Trevor Lawrence’s hair. They’ve got problems on both lines, in their secondary—Tyson Campbell hasn’t been himself since returning from injury—, with their receiver core, and Trevor Lawrence is neither healthy nor playing well enough to lead the Jaguars to the playoffs. I’m sure Jacksonville would like to completely restart what has been a horrific December.
10. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6, up 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: A healthy Ja’Marr Chase
Chase caught 11 balls for 149 yards in the Bengals’ dramatic overtime win over the Jaguars. It’s no coincidence that the 34-31 overtime win was the best game of Jake Browning’s career. The bottom line, when Chase is in, the Bengals are far better than without him. He’s out this week, and luckily for Cincinnati, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd could be enough against a rotting Steelers secondary, but against Kansas City next week, they will need Chase to continue their playoff push.
9. Cleveland Browns (9-5, down 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: The 5th seed in the AFC
The difference between playing Baltimore, Kansas City, or Miami as opposed to the winner of the AFC South is a big one. Cleveland has been in the 5th for a couple of weeks and two more wins this season should probably take them to the finish line. They’ve got the Stroud-less Texans and the hapless Jets on deck, and tiebreakers over the Bills and Colts as well as likely tiebreakers over the Bengals and Texans by week 18.
8. Detroit Lions (10-4, up 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: Consistent defense
Some days it’s the run defense. Some days it’s the pass defense. Either way, Detroit’s troubles on that side of the ball lead to points for their opponents. Prior to their blowout of the Broncos last Saturday night, the Lions gave up 38 to the Chargers, 26 to the Bears, 29 to the Packers, 28 to the Saints, and 28 to the Bears. I made an article a while ago that had a graph exposing the Dolphins’ fraudulent defense, but the Lions are the new Dolphins. Their DVOA and opponent PPG are not up to par with teams that have made runs to the conference championship in the past few years.
7. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5, down 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: Wide receiver and tight end production
The first half is obvious. Ka’Darius Toney has been an absolute nightmare, and only Rashee Rice has emerged as a viable target although he’d be a WR4 on the Bengals’, and a WR3 on most contenders. But it hasn’t all been on them. Let’s face it: Travis Kelce hasn’t been much of a help to Patrick Mahomes relative to last season, especially when the two-time MVP needs him most. Kelce needs to play at the All-Pro level that he was at last year to help the Chiefs win another Super Bowl.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (10-4, down 2)
What should be on their Christmas list: A secondary
I’ve never seen someone get burned the way that James Bradberry did by Drew Lock, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the Seahawks’ 92-yard game-winning drive (he gave up every single yard). It’s not just him—Darius Slay has middled off after a big 2022, and the Kevin Byard experiment hasn’t exactly worked out. Two stats that will panic Eagles fans: Philly has allowed the fourth most passing yards and the 4th highest QBR of any team this year.
5. Miami Dolphins (10-4, no change)
What should be on their Christmas list: A win against a contender
The Dolphins have played three teams with a record of over .500. They are 0-3 in those games, and 10-1 in all other games. In their final three games, they’ve got the 10-4 Cowboys, 11-3 Ravens, and the 8-6 Bills. Winning just one of those games will give their fans the belief that they can make a playoff run, but for now, everyone has them slated as frauds.
4. Buffalo Bills (8-6, up 3)
What should be on their Christmas list: A balanced offensive attack
Last week, we saw that Josh Allen completing seven passes could be a blessing for a Buffalo team that has struggled to find any offensive identity this year. By running the ball on 77% of their snaps, they not only tired out the Cowboys, but they also reduced the chance of Josh Allen throwing one of his catastrophic, game-altering interceptions. This year, the Bills are 5-6 when Allen throws at least one pick, and 3-0 when he doesn’t.
3. Dallas Cowboys (10-4, down 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: Run defense
This Cowboys team doesn’t have many weaknesses, but after the lackluster defensive performance against Buffalo that I just mentioned, it’s fair to point at their run D as a concern. Dallas ranks 19th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with 117.4, and six of their last seven opponents have gone for at least 100 on them by means of the ground attack.
2. Baltimore Ravens (11-3, up 1)
What should be on their Christmas list: Skill position players to step up
The Ravens don’t need to worry about their defense or special teams, but to me, their offense is surrounded by question marks. Lamar Jackson was frequently scrambling for his life against the Jaguars last week, but because he’s Superman, he made the plays necessary to make up for the Ravens’ lack of weapons on offense. Without Mark Andrews, and now Keaton Mitchell for the season, they’ll need increased production out of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill and they’d like to see Zay Flowers or Odell Beckham Jr. step up as a reliable week-to-week number one receiver for Jackson.
1. San Francisco 49ers (11-3, no change)
What should be on their Christmas list: Health
Though no team is invincible, the 49ers are the closest team to it. Last year, it was the same deal—San Francisco was coasting through the playoffs and were undefeated in the Brock Purdy era until they lost all of their quarterbacks against the Eagles in the NFC Championship. All they need to be the heavy favorite to win the Lombardi is to stay healthy throughout the playoffs because at full strength, they don’t just beat their opponent—they demolish them.
Thanks for reading today’s edition of the power rankings. Panel picks will be released tomorrow, and award predictions will come out in a few days. Enjoy the weekend!